Opinion Poll by SWG, 14–19 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 28.1% | 26.5–29.8% | 26.0–30.3% | 25.6–30.7% | 24.8–31.5% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.7% | 19.2–22.2% | 18.8–22.7% | 18.5–23.1% | 17.8–23.8% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.7% | 11.5–14.0% | 11.2–14.4% | 10.9–14.7% | 10.4–15.3% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.2% | 6.3–8.2% | 6.0–8.5% | 5.8–8.8% | 5.4–9.3% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.2–8.1% | 6.0–8.4% | 5.8–8.7% | 5.4–9.2% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.2–6.3% | 4.0–6.6% | 3.7–7.0% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.3–5.1% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 2.0–4.6% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.9–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.7% |
| Partito Socialista Italiano–Progetto Civico Italia (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.8–2.7% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.7–2.6% |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 24 | 22–26 | 22–26 | 22–28 | 21–28 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 19 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 15–21 | 15–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 0–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 3–5 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partito Socialista Italiano–Progetto Civico Italia (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 22 | 13% | 99.3% | |
| 23 | 12% | 87% | |
| 24 | 43% | 75% | Median |
| 25 | 15% | 32% | |
| 26 | 13% | 16% | |
| 27 | 0.4% | 3% | |
| 28 | 2% | 3% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 4% | 97% | |
| 17 | 24% | 93% | |
| 18 | 10% | 69% | |
| 19 | 47% | 59% | Median |
| 20 | 3% | 12% | |
| 21 | 9% | 9% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 13% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 33% | 87% | |
| 11 | 36% | 54% | Median |
| 12 | 15% | 18% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 14% | 100% | |
| 6 | 61% | 86% | Median |
| 7 | 23% | 24% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 22% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 42% | 78% | Median |
| 6 | 26% | 36% | |
| 7 | 10% | 10% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 4 | 65% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 21% | 33% | |
| 6 | 12% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 27% | 97% | |
| 4 | 63% | 70% | Median |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.8% | 2% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 14% | 100% | |
| 2 | 70% | 86% | Median |
| 3 | 16% | 16% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Socialista Italiano–Progetto Civico Italia (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Socialista Italiano–Progetto Civico Italia (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sud chiama Nord (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 23% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 0–6 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 14% | 100% | |
| 6 | 61% | 86% | Median |
| 7 | 23% | 24% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.6% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 98.6% | |
| 4 | 65% | 98% | Median |
| 5 | 21% | 33% | |
| 6 | 12% | 12% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: SWG
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 14–19 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.31%