Opinion Poll by Eumetra for La7, 20–21 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.8% | 25.8–29.9% | 25.2–30.5% | 24.8–31.0% | 23.8–32.0% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.1% | 18.4–22.0% | 17.9–22.6% | 17.5–23.1% | 16.7–24.0% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.4% | 11.0–14.0% | 10.6–14.4% | 10.3–14.8% | 9.6–15.7% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.2% | 6.2–8.6% | 5.9–8.9% | 5.6–9.3% | 5.2–9.9% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.1–8.4% | 5.8–8.8% | 5.5–9.1% | 5.1–9.8% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.7–6.8% | 4.5–7.1% | 4.2–7.5% | 3.8–8.1% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.5% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.4–5.0% | 2.1–5.5% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.2–4.7% | 1.9–5.2% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.5–3.7% | 1.3–4.1% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.4–3.5% | 1.2–4.0% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.5% | 1.1–2.7% | 1.1–2.9% | 0.9–3.3% |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.8% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.6–2.1% | 0.5–2.5% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.3–1.5% | 0.2–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 20–26 | 20–26 | 20–26 | 20–27 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 | 13–21 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 0–7 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sud chiama Nord (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 15% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 12% | 85% | |
| 22 | 13% | 73% | |
| 23 | 27% | 60% | Median |
| 24 | 19% | 33% | |
| 25 | 4% | 14% | |
| 26 | 10% | 10% | |
| 27 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 15 | 20% | 96% | |
| 16 | 17% | 76% | |
| 17 | 30% | 59% | Median |
| 18 | 16% | 28% | |
| 19 | 9% | 12% | |
| 20 | 3% | 4% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 7% | 100% | |
| 9 | 9% | 93% | |
| 10 | 23% | 83% | |
| 11 | 27% | 60% | Median |
| 12 | 31% | 33% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 4 | 11% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 46% | 88% | Median |
| 6 | 20% | 42% | |
| 7 | 20% | 22% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 33% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 45% | 66% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 21% | |
| 8 | 7% | 9% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 4 | 21% | 97% | |
| 5 | 53% | 77% | Median |
| 6 | 22% | 23% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 12% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 55% | 87% | Median |
| 4 | 28% | 32% | |
| 5 | 4% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 21% | |
| 3 | 1.2% | 21% | |
| 4 | 19% | 20% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 1.0% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 19% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 59% | 80% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 21% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Sud chiama Nord (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 57% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 42% | 43% | |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 3–6 | 0–7 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 5 | 33% | 98.9% | |
| 6 | 45% | 66% | Median |
| 7 | 12% | 21% | |
| 8 | 7% | 9% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0.7% | 98% | |
| 4 | 21% | 97% | |
| 5 | 53% | 77% | Median |
| 6 | 22% | 23% | |
| 7 | 2% | 2% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Eumetra
- Commissioner(s): La7
- Fieldwork period: 20–21 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 800
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.51%