Opinion Poll by Termometro Politico, 20–22 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.8% | 26.6–29.0% | 26.3–29.3% | 26.0–29.6% | 25.5–30.2% |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0.0% | 20.6% | 19.6–21.7% | 19.3–22.0% | 19.0–22.3% | 18.5–22.8% |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.7% | 11.9–13.6% | 11.6–13.9% | 11.4–14.1% | 11.0–14.6% |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.8–8.2% | 6.7–8.4% | 6.5–8.6% | 6.2–9.0% |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.6–8.0% | 6.5–8.2% | 6.3–8.4% | 6.0–8.8% |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.9–6.1% | 4.7–6.2% | 4.6–6.4% | 4.3–6.7% |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.1–4.0% | 2.9–4.2% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.6% |
| Azione (RE) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.4–3.3% | 2.3–3.4% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.0–3.8% |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.0% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–2.7% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.8–3.0% | 1.6–3.2% |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.0% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.0–2.4% |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.8–1.3% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) | 0 | 23 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 | 21–25 |
| Partito Democratico (S&D) | 0 | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–19 |
| Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 |
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Forza Italia (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–5 |
| Azione (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–3 |
| Italia Viva (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Più Europa (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Noi Moderati (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partito Progressista (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 21 | 15% | 99.9% | |
| 22 | 30% | 85% | |
| 23 | 33% | 56% | Median |
| 24 | 8% | 22% | |
| 25 | 14% | 14% | |
| 26 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
Partito Democratico (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 26% | 98% | |
| 17 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 18 | 32% | 47% | |
| 19 | 16% | 16% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 10 | 29% | 98.6% | |
| 11 | 62% | 70% | Median |
| 12 | 8% | 8% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 62% | 96% | Median |
| 7 | 32% | 34% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Forza Italia (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 5% | 100% | |
| 5 | 77% | 95% | Median |
| 6 | 18% | 18% | |
| 7 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 26% | 99.3% | |
| 5 | 72% | 73% | Median |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 64% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 32% | 32% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Azione (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Italia Viva (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 83% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 5% | 5% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Più Europa (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Più Europa (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Noi Moderati (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partito Progressista (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 5% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Futuro Nazionale (ESN) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 5–7 | 5–8 |
| Lega Nord (PfE) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
Futuro Nazionale (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 62% | 96% | Median |
| 7 | 32% | 34% | |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Lega Nord (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 4 | 26% | 99.3% | |
| 5 | 72% | 73% | Median |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Termometro Politico
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 20–22 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 2400
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.07%