Opinion Poll by Quorum – YouTrend for Sky TG24, 27–28 October 2026

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0.0% 28.1% 26.2–30.2% 25.6–30.8% 25.1–31.4% 24.2–32.4%
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0.0% 19.9% 18.2–21.8% 17.7–22.3% 17.3–22.8% 16.5–23.7%
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 13.5% 12.0–15.1% 11.6–15.6% 11.3–16.0% 10.6–16.8%
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7% 5.5–9.0% 5.0–9.7%
Forza Italia (EPP) 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.7% 5.5–9.0% 5.0–9.7%
Lega Nord (PfE) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–6.1% 3.8–6.4% 3.6–6.7% 3.3–7.2%
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.6%
Azione (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Italia Viva (RE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.8–4.1% 1.5–4.6%
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.4% 1.5–3.6% 1.3–4.1%
Ora! (*) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.5–2.6%
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.6% 0.6–1.8% 0.5–1.9% 0.4–2.3%
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.6% 0.2–1.9%
Partito Progressista (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) 0 23 21–26 21–26 21–27 20–28
Partito Democratico (S&D) 0 16 15–18 15–18 14–19 13–20
Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) 0 12 10–13 9–14 9–14 8–14
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 6 5–7 4–8 4–9 4–9
Forza Italia (EPP) 0 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 3–8
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6
Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) 0 3 2–4 2–5 2–6 2–6
Azione (RE) 0 0 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Italia Viva (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–4
Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Ora! (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noi Moderati (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sud chiama Nord (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partito Progressista (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fratelli d’Italia (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.4% 100%  
20 0.7% 99.6%  
21 12% 99.0%  
22 18% 87%  
23 19% 69% Median
24 15% 50%  
25 12% 35%  
26 19% 23%  
27 2% 4%  
28 2% 2%  
29 0% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Partito Democratico (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Democratico (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 1.4% 100%  
14 2% 98.6%  
15 30% 96%  
16 25% 66% Median
17 18% 41%  
18 19% 23%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Movimento 5 Stelle (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.5% 99.9%  
9 6% 98%  
10 13% 93%  
11 18% 79%  
12 46% 61% Median
13 9% 15%  
14 5% 5%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0.1% 0.1%  
17 0% 0%  

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Futuro Nazionale (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 30% 94%  
6 42% 64% Median
7 14% 22%  
8 3% 8%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0% 0%  

Forza Italia (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Forza Italia (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 25% 98%  
5 38% 74% Median
6 30% 36%  
7 4% 6%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lega Nord (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 6% 89%  
4 55% 82% Median
5 23% 27%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Europa Verde (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Europa Verde (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 99.9%  
2 12% 99.6%  
3 42% 87% Median
4 36% 45%  
5 5% 9%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Azione (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Azione (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 72% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 28%  
2 0% 28%  
3 12% 28%  
4 16% 17%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Italia Viva (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Italia Viva (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 0.4% 1.2%  
4 0.5% 0.8%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sinistra Italiana (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 12% 99.9%  
2 44% 88% Median
3 42% 44%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Ora! (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ora! (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Noi Moderati (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Noi Moderati (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Sud chiama Nord (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sud chiama Nord (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partito Progressista (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partito Progressista (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Futuro Nazionale (ESN) 0 6 0% 5–7 4–8 4–9 4–9
Lega Nord (PfE) 0 4 0% 0–5 0–5 0–6 0–6

Futuro Nazionale (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 30% 94%  
6 42% 64% Median
7 14% 22%  
8 3% 8%  
9 5% 5%  
10 0% 0%  

Lega Nord (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 11% 100% Last Result
1 0% 89%  
2 0% 89%  
3 6% 89%  
4 55% 82% Median
5 23% 27%  
6 4% 4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations