Opinion Poll by FACTUM, 27 August–2 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 23.0% 23.3% 22.1–24.6% 21.7–24.9% 21.4–25.2% 20.9–25.9%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0.7% 14.6% 13.6–15.7% 13.3–16.0% 13.1–16.2% 12.6–16.8%
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 16.6% 11.6% 10.7–12.6% 10.5–12.9% 10.3–13.2% 9.9–13.7%
KPV LV 0.0% 11.6% 10.7–12.6% 10.5–12.9% 10.3–13.2% 9.9–13.7%
Attīstībai–Par! 0.9% 10.7% 9.8–11.7% 9.6–11.9% 9.4–12.2% 9.0–12.7%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 19.5% 8.7% 7.9–9.6% 7.7–9.9% 7.5–10.1% 7.2–10.5%
Vienotība 21.9% 6.8% 6.1–7.6% 5.9–7.8% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.4%
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 6.7% 2.9% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Progresīvie 0.0% 2.9% 2.5–3.5% 2.4–3.6% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.1%
Latvijas Krievu savienība 1.6% 1.9% 1.6–2.4% 1.5–2.5% 1.4–2.7% 1.2–2.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 24 30 28–32 28–32 27–32 26–33
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0 19 18–20 17–20 17–21 16–22
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 17 15 15–16 14–18 14–18 13–18
KPV LV 0 15 14–15 14–15 13–16 13–17
Attīstībai–Par! 0 0 0 0 0 0
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 21 13 11–14 10–15 10–15 9–15
Vienotība 23 8 8–10 8–10 7–10 7–11
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 8 0 0 0 0 0
Progresīvie 0 0 0 0 0 0
Latvijas Krievu savienība 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0.5% 100%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 24% 97%  
29 19% 74%  
30 17% 55% Median
31 25% 38%  
32 12% 14%  
33 1.3% 1.5%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 4% 98%  
18 39% 94%  
19 22% 55% Median
20 29% 33%  
21 2% 4%  
22 2% 2%  
23 0.4% 0.4%  
24 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.4% 100%  
13 1.4% 99.6%  
14 5% 98%  
15 54% 93% Median
16 29% 39%  
17 3% 10% Last Result
18 7% 7%  
19 0% 0%  

KPV LV

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0.1% 100%  
13 3% 99.9%  
14 10% 97%  
15 83% 87% Median
16 2% 4%  
17 1.0% 1.3%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Attīstībai–Par!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai–Par! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 1.4% 100%  
10 8% 98.6%  
11 22% 90%  
12 17% 69%  
13 27% 51% Median
14 19% 24%  
15 5% 5%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Vienotība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 3% 100%  
8 62% 97% Median
9 8% 35%  
10 25% 26%  
11 1.1% 1.3%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  
14 0% 0%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Latvijas Reģionu apvienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Progresīvie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresīvie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Latvijas Krievu savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 45 57 100% 55–58 54–59 54–59 52–61
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība 61 55 100% 53–57 53–57 53–58 52–59
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība 61 55 100% 53–57 53–57 53–58 52–59
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par! 24 49 8% 47–50 47–51 46–52 45–54
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 38 47 0.2% 45–49 45–49 44–49 43–50
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 38 47 0.2% 45–49 45–49 44–49 43–50
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV 24 45 0% 43–47 43–47 42–47 41–48
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība 40 43 0% 42–45 41–46 41–46 39–48
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība 61 37 0% 35–38 34–39 33–39 33–40
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība 61 37 0% 35–38 34–39 33–39 33–40
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! 24 30 0% 28–32 28–32 27–32 26–33
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 38 28 0% 26–30 25–30 25–30 25–31

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100% Last Result
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0% 100%  
49 0% 100%  
50 0% 100%  
51 0% 100% Majority
52 0.6% 100%  
53 2% 99.4%  
54 3% 98%  
55 8% 94%  
56 14% 87%  
57 30% 73%  
58 33% 43% Median
59 7% 10%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.5% 0.7%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 1.0% 99.8%  
53 12% 98.8%  
54 20% 87%  
55 21% 67% Median
56 19% 47%  
57 25% 28%  
58 2% 3%  
59 1.2% 1.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.2% 100% Majority
52 1.0% 99.8%  
53 12% 98.8%  
54 20% 87%  
55 21% 67% Median
56 19% 47%  
57 25% 28%  
58 2% 3%  
59 1.2% 1.2%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.5% 99.9%  
46 2% 99.3%  
47 18% 97%  
48 28% 79%  
49 24% 51% Median
50 20% 27%  
51 5% 8% Majority
52 2% 3%  
53 0.2% 0.8%  
54 0.6% 0.6%  
55 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.8% 99.8%  
44 4% 99.0%  
45 21% 95%  
46 24% 75%  
47 21% 51% Median
48 9% 30%  
49 20% 21%  
50 1.2% 1.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.8% 99.8%  
44 4% 99.0%  
45 21% 95%  
46 24% 75%  
47 21% 51% Median
48 9% 30%  
49 20% 21%  
50 1.2% 1.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2% Majority
52 0% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 100%  
41 1.2% 99.9%  
42 2% 98.8%  
43 25% 97%  
44 19% 72%  
45 21% 53% Median
46 20% 33%  
47 12% 13%  
48 1.0% 1.2%  
49 0.2% 0.2%  
50 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.5% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.3% Last Result
41 7% 98%  
42 33% 90% Median
43 30% 57%  
44 14% 27%  
45 8% 13%  
46 3% 6%  
47 2% 2%  
48 0.6% 0.6%  
49 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.8%  
34 5% 97%  
35 17% 93%  
36 25% 76% Median
37 30% 51%  
38 16% 22%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.8% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0% 100%  
32 0.1% 99.9%  
33 3% 99.8%  
34 5% 97%  
35 17% 93%  
36 25% 76% Median
37 30% 51%  
38 16% 22%  
39 4% 5%  
40 0.8% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0.5% 100%  
27 2% 99.5%  
28 24% 97%  
29 19% 74%  
30 17% 55% Median
31 25% 38%  
32 12% 14%  
33 1.3% 1.5%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0% 99.9%  
24 0.2% 99.9%  
25 8% 99.7%  
26 8% 92%  
27 23% 84%  
28 26% 61% Median
29 25% 35%  
30 8% 10%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.4%  
33 0% 0%  
34 0% 0%  
35 0% 0%  
36 0% 0%  
37 0% 0%  
38 0% 0% Last Result

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations