Opinion Poll by FACTUM, 27 August–2 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions

Confidence Intervals
Party |
Last Result |
Poll Result |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” |
23.0% |
23.3% |
22.1–24.6% |
21.7–24.9% |
21.4–25.2% |
20.9–25.9% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija |
0.7% |
14.6% |
13.6–15.7% |
13.3–16.0% |
13.1–16.2% |
12.6–16.8% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” |
16.6% |
11.6% |
10.7–12.6% |
10.5–12.9% |
10.3–13.2% |
9.9–13.7% |
KPV LV |
0.0% |
11.6% |
10.7–12.6% |
10.5–12.9% |
10.3–13.2% |
9.9–13.7% |
Attīstībai–Par! |
0.9% |
10.7% |
9.8–11.7% |
9.6–11.9% |
9.4–12.2% |
9.0–12.7% |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība |
19.5% |
8.7% |
7.9–9.6% |
7.7–9.9% |
7.5–10.1% |
7.2–10.5% |
Vienotība |
21.9% |
6.8% |
6.1–7.6% |
5.9–7.8% |
5.7–8.0% |
5.4–8.4% |
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība |
6.7% |
2.9% |
2.5–3.5% |
2.4–3.6% |
2.3–3.8% |
2.1–4.1% |
Progresīvie |
0.0% |
2.9% |
2.5–3.5% |
2.4–3.6% |
2.3–3.8% |
2.1–4.1% |
Latvijas Krievu savienība |
1.6% |
1.9% |
1.6–2.4% |
1.5–2.5% |
1.4–2.7% |
1.2–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats

Confidence Intervals
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
28 |
24% |
97% |
|
29 |
19% |
74% |
|
30 |
17% |
55% |
Median |
31 |
25% |
38% |
|
32 |
12% |
14% |
|
33 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Jaunā konservatīvā partija
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0% |
100% |
|
13 |
0% |
100% |
|
14 |
0% |
100% |
|
15 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
16 |
2% |
99.9% |
|
17 |
4% |
98% |
|
18 |
39% |
94% |
|
19 |
22% |
55% |
Median |
20 |
29% |
33% |
|
21 |
2% |
4% |
|
22 |
2% |
2% |
|
23 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
24 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
12 |
0.4% |
100% |
|
13 |
1.4% |
99.6% |
|
14 |
5% |
98% |
|
15 |
54% |
93% |
Median |
16 |
29% |
39% |
|
17 |
3% |
10% |
Last Result |
18 |
7% |
7% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
KPV LV
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
1 |
0% |
100% |
|
2 |
0% |
100% |
|
3 |
0% |
100% |
|
4 |
0% |
100% |
|
5 |
0% |
100% |
|
6 |
0% |
100% |
|
7 |
0% |
100% |
|
8 |
0% |
100% |
|
9 |
0% |
100% |
|
10 |
0% |
100% |
|
11 |
0% |
100% |
|
12 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
13 |
3% |
99.9% |
|
14 |
10% |
97% |
|
15 |
83% |
87% |
Median |
16 |
2% |
4% |
|
17 |
1.0% |
1.3% |
|
18 |
0.3% |
0.4% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
Attīstībai–Par!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai–Par! page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
9 |
1.4% |
100% |
|
10 |
8% |
98.6% |
|
11 |
22% |
90% |
|
12 |
17% |
69% |
|
13 |
27% |
51% |
Median |
14 |
19% |
24% |
|
15 |
5% |
5% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Vienotība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
7 |
3% |
100% |
|
8 |
62% |
97% |
Median |
9 |
8% |
35% |
|
10 |
25% |
26% |
|
11 |
1.1% |
1.3% |
|
12 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
13 |
0% |
0% |
|
14 |
0% |
0% |
|
15 |
0% |
0% |
|
16 |
0% |
0% |
|
17 |
0% |
0% |
|
18 |
0% |
0% |
|
19 |
0% |
0% |
|
20 |
0% |
0% |
|
21 |
0% |
0% |
|
22 |
0% |
0% |
|
23 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Median |
1 |
0% |
0% |
|
2 |
0% |
0% |
|
3 |
0% |
0% |
|
4 |
0% |
0% |
|
5 |
0% |
0% |
|
6 |
0% |
0% |
|
7 |
0% |
0% |
|
8 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Progresīvie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresīvie page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Latvijas Krievu savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
0 |
100% |
100% |
Last Result, Median |
Coalitions

Confidence Intervals
Coalition |
Last Result |
Median |
Majority? |
80% Confidence Interval |
90% Confidence Interval |
95% Confidence Interval |
99% Confidence Interval |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība |
45 |
57 |
100% |
55–58 |
54–59 |
54–59 |
52–61 |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība |
61 |
55 |
100% |
53–57 |
53–57 |
53–58 |
52–59 |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība |
61 |
55 |
100% |
53–57 |
53–57 |
53–58 |
52–59 |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par! |
24 |
49 |
8% |
47–50 |
47–51 |
46–52 |
45–54 |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība |
38 |
47 |
0.2% |
45–49 |
45–49 |
44–49 |
43–50 |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība |
38 |
47 |
0.2% |
45–49 |
45–49 |
44–49 |
43–50 |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV |
24 |
45 |
0% |
43–47 |
43–47 |
42–47 |
41–48 |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība |
40 |
43 |
0% |
42–45 |
41–46 |
41–46 |
39–48 |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība |
61 |
37 |
0% |
35–38 |
34–39 |
33–39 |
33–40 |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība |
61 |
37 |
0% |
35–38 |
34–39 |
33–39 |
33–40 |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! |
24 |
30 |
0% |
28–32 |
28–32 |
27–32 |
26–33 |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība |
38 |
28 |
0% |
26–30 |
25–30 |
25–30 |
25–31 |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
45 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
46 |
0% |
100% |
|
47 |
0% |
100% |
|
48 |
0% |
100% |
|
49 |
0% |
100% |
|
50 |
0% |
100% |
|
51 |
0% |
100% |
Majority |
52 |
0.6% |
100% |
|
53 |
2% |
99.4% |
|
54 |
3% |
98% |
|
55 |
8% |
94% |
|
56 |
14% |
87% |
|
57 |
30% |
73% |
|
58 |
33% |
43% |
Median |
59 |
7% |
10% |
|
60 |
2% |
2% |
|
61 |
0.5% |
0.7% |
|
62 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
63 |
0% |
0% |
|
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.2% |
100% |
Majority |
52 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
53 |
12% |
98.8% |
|
54 |
20% |
87% |
|
55 |
21% |
67% |
Median |
56 |
19% |
47% |
|
57 |
25% |
28% |
|
58 |
2% |
3% |
|
59 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
51 |
0.2% |
100% |
Majority |
52 |
1.0% |
99.8% |
|
53 |
12% |
98.8% |
|
54 |
20% |
87% |
|
55 |
21% |
67% |
Median |
56 |
19% |
47% |
|
57 |
25% |
28% |
|
58 |
2% |
3% |
|
59 |
1.2% |
1.2% |
|
60 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par!

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0% |
100% |
|
43 |
0% |
100% |
|
44 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
45 |
0.5% |
99.9% |
|
46 |
2% |
99.3% |
|
47 |
18% |
97% |
|
48 |
28% |
79% |
|
49 |
24% |
51% |
Median |
50 |
20% |
27% |
|
51 |
5% |
8% |
Majority |
52 |
2% |
3% |
|
53 |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
54 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
44 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
45 |
21% |
95% |
|
46 |
24% |
75% |
|
47 |
21% |
51% |
Median |
48 |
9% |
30% |
|
49 |
20% |
21% |
|
50 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0% |
100% |
|
41 |
0% |
100% |
|
42 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
43 |
0.8% |
99.8% |
|
44 |
4% |
99.0% |
|
45 |
21% |
95% |
|
46 |
24% |
75% |
|
47 |
21% |
51% |
Median |
48 |
9% |
30% |
|
49 |
20% |
21% |
|
50 |
1.2% |
1.4% |
|
51 |
0.1% |
0.2% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0.1% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0% |
100% |
|
27 |
0% |
100% |
|
28 |
0% |
100% |
|
29 |
0% |
100% |
|
30 |
0% |
100% |
|
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0% |
100% |
|
33 |
0% |
100% |
|
34 |
0% |
100% |
|
35 |
0% |
100% |
|
36 |
0% |
100% |
|
37 |
0% |
100% |
|
38 |
0% |
100% |
|
39 |
0% |
100% |
|
40 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
41 |
1.2% |
99.9% |
|
42 |
2% |
98.8% |
|
43 |
25% |
97% |
|
44 |
19% |
72% |
|
45 |
21% |
53% |
Median |
46 |
20% |
33% |
|
47 |
12% |
13% |
|
48 |
1.0% |
1.2% |
|
49 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
38 |
0.2% |
100% |
|
39 |
0.5% |
99.8% |
|
40 |
2% |
99.3% |
Last Result |
41 |
7% |
98% |
|
42 |
33% |
90% |
Median |
43 |
30% |
57% |
|
44 |
14% |
27% |
|
45 |
8% |
13% |
|
46 |
3% |
6% |
|
47 |
2% |
2% |
|
48 |
0.6% |
0.6% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
5% |
97% |
|
35 |
17% |
93% |
|
36 |
25% |
76% |
Median |
37 |
30% |
51% |
|
38 |
16% |
22% |
|
39 |
4% |
5% |
|
40 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
31 |
0% |
100% |
|
32 |
0.1% |
99.9% |
|
33 |
3% |
99.8% |
|
34 |
5% |
97% |
|
35 |
17% |
93% |
|
36 |
25% |
76% |
Median |
37 |
30% |
51% |
|
38 |
16% |
22% |
|
39 |
4% |
5% |
|
40 |
0.8% |
0.9% |
|
41 |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
42 |
0% |
0% |
|
43 |
0% |
0% |
|
44 |
0% |
0% |
|
45 |
0% |
0% |
|
46 |
0% |
0% |
|
47 |
0% |
0% |
|
48 |
0% |
0% |
|
49 |
0% |
0% |
|
50 |
0% |
0% |
|
51 |
0% |
0% |
Majority |
52 |
0% |
0% |
|
53 |
0% |
0% |
|
54 |
0% |
0% |
|
55 |
0% |
0% |
|
56 |
0% |
0% |
|
57 |
0% |
0% |
|
58 |
0% |
0% |
|
59 |
0% |
0% |
|
60 |
0% |
0% |
|
61 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par!

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
24 |
0% |
100% |
Last Result |
25 |
0% |
100% |
|
26 |
0.5% |
100% |
|
27 |
2% |
99.5% |
|
28 |
24% |
97% |
|
29 |
19% |
74% |
|
30 |
17% |
55% |
Median |
31 |
25% |
38% |
|
32 |
12% |
14% |
|
33 |
1.3% |
1.5% |
|
34 |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

Number of Seats |
Probability |
Accumulated |
Special Marks |
22 |
0.1% |
100% |
|
23 |
0% |
99.9% |
|
24 |
0.2% |
99.9% |
|
25 |
8% |
99.7% |
|
26 |
8% |
92% |
|
27 |
23% |
84% |
|
28 |
26% |
61% |
Median |
29 |
25% |
35% |
|
30 |
8% |
10% |
|
31 |
2% |
2% |
|
32 |
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
33 |
0% |
0% |
|
34 |
0% |
0% |
|
35 |
0% |
0% |
|
36 |
0% |
0% |
|
37 |
0% |
0% |
|
38 |
0% |
0% |
Last Result |
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: FACTUM
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 27 August–2 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1915
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.40%