Opinion Poll by FACTUM, 31 August–9 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” | 23.0% | 20.6% | 19.2–22.1% | 18.8–22.5% | 18.5–22.9% | 17.8–23.6% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 0.7% | 14.7% | 13.5–16.0% | 13.2–16.4% | 12.9–16.7% | 12.3–17.4% |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 16.6% | 13.7% | 12.5–15.0% | 12.2–15.4% | 11.9–15.7% | 11.4–16.3% |
| KPV LV | 0.0% | 12.8% | 11.6–14.0% | 11.3–14.4% | 11.1–14.7% | 10.5–15.3% |
| Vienotība | 21.9% | 8.8% | 7.9–9.9% | 7.6–10.2% | 7.4–10.5% | 7.0–11.0% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 19.5% | 8.8% | 7.9–9.9% | 7.6–10.2% | 7.4–10.5% | 7.0–11.0% |
| Attīstībai–Par! | 0.9% | 8.8% | 7.9–9.9% | 7.6–10.2% | 7.4–10.5% | 7.0–11.0% |
| Latvijas Reģionu apvienība | 6.7% | 3.9% | 3.3–4.7% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.6% |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.1–4.0% | 1.9–4.4% |
| Progresīvie | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.1–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” | 24 | 26 | 25–27 | 25–28 | 24–28 | 22–29 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 0 | 19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 | 15–22 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 17 | 18 | 16–18 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 14–18 |
| KPV LV | 0 | 15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 |
| Vienotība | 23 | 12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 21 | 11 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 |
| Attīstībai–Par! | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latvijas Reģionu apvienība | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Progresīvie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98.5% | Last Result |
| 25 | 20% | 95% | |
| 26 | 50% | 75% | Median |
| 27 | 19% | 25% | |
| 28 | 4% | 6% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 7% | 96% | |
| 17 | 12% | 89% | |
| 18 | 7% | 77% | |
| 19 | 48% | 70% | Median |
| 20 | 18% | 22% | |
| 21 | 4% | 4% | |
| 22 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 16 | 10% | 97% | |
| 17 | 37% | 87% | Last Result |
| 18 | 50% | 50% | Median |
| 19 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
KPV LV
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 11% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 55% | 89% | Median |
| 16 | 12% | 34% | |
| 17 | 19% | 22% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Vienotība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 9 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 34% | 94% | |
| 11 | 6% | 60% | |
| 12 | 50% | 54% | Median |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 4% | 98% | |
| 11 | 79% | 94% | Median |
| 12 | 4% | 15% | |
| 13 | 4% | 11% | |
| 14 | 6% | 8% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Attīstībai–Par!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai–Par! page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 3% | |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Latvijas Krievu savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Progresīvie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresīvie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 61 | 59 | 100% | 56–60 | 55–61 | 55–61 | 53–62 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 61 | 59 | 100% | 56–60 | 55–61 | 55–61 | 53–62 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 45 | 52 | 95% | 51–55 | 51–56 | 50–57 | 48–58 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 38 | 47 | 2% | 45–49 | 45–50 | 44–50 | 42–51 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 38 | 47 | 2% | 45–49 | 45–50 | 44–50 | 42–51 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība | 40 | 48 | 0.3% | 45–49 | 44–49 | 43–50 | 42–50 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par! | 24 | 45 | 0% | 43–46 | 42–46 | 41–46 | 39–47 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV | 24 | 41 | 0% | 40–44 | 39–44 | 39–45 | 38–45 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 61 | 40 | 0% | 39–41 | 38–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 61 | 40 | 0% | 39–41 | 38–42 | 37–43 | 36–44 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 38 | 29 | 0% | 27–30 | 27–31 | 26–32 | 25–33 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! | 24 | 26 | 0% | 25–27 | 25–28 | 24–28 | 22–29 |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 3% | 98% | |
| 56 | 12% | 95% | |
| 57 | 10% | 82% | |
| 58 | 9% | 72% | |
| 59 | 46% | 63% | |
| 60 | 12% | 17% | Median |
| 61 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 52 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 54 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 55 | 3% | 98% | |
| 56 | 12% | 95% | |
| 57 | 10% | 82% | |
| 58 | 9% | 72% | |
| 59 | 46% | 63% | |
| 60 | 12% | 17% | Median |
| 61 | 4% | 5% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 63 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 64 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 46 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 48 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 49 | 0.9% | 99.4% | |
| 50 | 3% | 98% | |
| 51 | 11% | 95% | Majority |
| 52 | 46% | 84% | Median |
| 53 | 8% | 38% | |
| 54 | 9% | 30% | |
| 55 | 15% | 21% | |
| 56 | 3% | 6% | |
| 57 | 2% | 3% | |
| 58 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 59 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 45 | 9% | 97% | |
| 46 | 15% | 87% | |
| 47 | 36% | 72% | |
| 48 | 15% | 36% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 21% | |
| 50 | 5% | 7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 2% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 99.3% | |
| 44 | 2% | 98.6% | |
| 45 | 9% | 97% | |
| 46 | 15% | 87% | |
| 47 | 36% | 72% | |
| 48 | 15% | 36% | Median |
| 49 | 14% | 21% | |
| 50 | 5% | 7% | |
| 51 | 2% | 2% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 42 | 1.1% | 99.8% | |
| 43 | 3% | 98.7% | |
| 44 | 3% | 96% | |
| 45 | 16% | 92% | |
| 46 | 9% | 76% | |
| 47 | 8% | 67% | |
| 48 | 46% | 59% | |
| 49 | 11% | 13% | Median |
| 50 | 2% | 3% | |
| 51 | 0.3% | 0.3% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 39 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 40 | 0.4% | 98% | |
| 41 | 1.2% | 98% | |
| 42 | 5% | 97% | |
| 43 | 6% | 92% | |
| 44 | 24% | 86% | |
| 45 | 38% | 62% | Median |
| 46 | 22% | 24% | |
| 47 | 2% | 2% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 99.7% | |
| 38 | 1.3% | 99.5% | |
| 39 | 6% | 98% | |
| 40 | 12% | 92% | |
| 41 | 46% | 80% | Median |
| 42 | 9% | 34% | |
| 43 | 10% | 25% | |
| 44 | 12% | 15% | |
| 45 | 3% | 3% | |
| 46 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 5% | 97% | |
| 39 | 35% | 92% | |
| 40 | 36% | 57% | |
| 41 | 14% | 21% | Median |
| 42 | 4% | 7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.6% | |
| 37 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 38 | 5% | 97% | |
| 39 | 35% | 92% | |
| 40 | 36% | 57% | |
| 41 | 14% | 21% | Median |
| 42 | 4% | 7% | |
| 43 | 2% | 3% | |
| 44 | 0.6% | 0.9% | |
| 45 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 27 | 7% | 96% | |
| 28 | 34% | 89% | |
| 29 | 43% | 55% | Median |
| 30 | 6% | 13% | |
| 31 | 4% | 7% | |
| 32 | 2% | 3% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 99.5% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98.5% | Last Result |
| 25 | 20% | 95% | |
| 26 | 50% | 75% | Median |
| 27 | 19% | 25% | |
| 28 | 4% | 6% | |
| 29 | 2% | 2% | |
| 30 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: FACTUM
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 31 August–9 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 1293
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 1.59%