Opinion Poll by FACTUM, 10–16 September 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 23.0% 20.6% 19.2–22.2% 18.7–22.6% 18.4–23.0% 17.7–23.8%
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0.7% 13.7% 12.5–15.1% 12.2–15.5% 11.9–15.9% 11.3–16.5%
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 16.6% 12.7% 11.5–14.1% 11.2–14.4% 10.9–14.8% 10.4–15.4%
Attīstībai–Par! 0.9% 11.8% 10.6–13.1% 10.3–13.4% 10.0–13.8% 9.5–14.4%
KPV LV 0.0% 10.8% 9.7–12.1% 9.4–12.4% 9.2–12.7% 8.7–13.4%
Vienotība 21.9% 9.8% 8.7–11.0% 8.5–11.3% 8.2–11.6% 7.7–12.2%
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 19.5% 9.8% 8.7–11.0% 8.5–11.3% 8.2–11.6% 7.7–12.2%
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 6.7% 2.9% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Latvijas Krievu savienība 1.6% 2.9% 2.4–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.1–4.1% 1.9–4.5%
Progresīvie 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.6% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” 24 23 22–26 22–26 21–26 20–27
Jaunā konservatīvā partija 0 15 14–16 13–17 13–18 13–19
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” 17 14 12–17 12–17 12–17 12–17
Attīstībai–Par! 0 13 12–15 12–15 10–15 10–17
KPV LV 0 11 10–14 10–14 9–14 9–14
Vienotība 23 10 10–13 10–13 9–13 8–14
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 21 11 11–14 11–14 10–14 8–15
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība 8 0 0 0 0 0
Latvijas Krievu savienība 0 0 0 0 0 0
Progresīvie 0 0 0 0 0 0

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 2% 99.9%  
21 2% 98%  
22 32% 97%  
23 22% 65% Median
24 27% 43% Last Result
25 6% 16%  
26 9% 10%  
27 0.7% 0.8%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 8% 100%  
14 12% 92%  
15 65% 80% Median
16 5% 15%  
17 6% 10%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.9% 1.2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 10% 100%  
13 29% 90%  
14 21% 61% Median
15 24% 39%  
16 5% 15%  
17 10% 10% Last Result
18 0.4% 0.4%  
19 0% 0%  

Attīstībai–Par!

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai–Par! page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 2% 100%  
11 2% 97%  
12 19% 96%  
13 27% 77% Median
14 36% 50%  
15 12% 14%  
16 0.8% 2%  
17 0.7% 0.8%  
18 0% 0%  

KPV LV

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 3% 100%  
10 33% 97%  
11 16% 64% Median
12 17% 48%  
13 9% 31%  
14 22% 22%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Vienotība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.9% 99.9%  
9 4% 99.0%  
10 47% 95% Median
11 12% 48%  
12 22% 37%  
13 13% 15%  
14 2% 2%  
15 0% 0%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0%  
22 0% 0%  
23 0% 0% Last Result

Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.8% 100%  
9 0.6% 99.2%  
10 3% 98.5%  
11 67% 96% Median
12 9% 29%  
13 7% 20%  
14 12% 13%  
15 2% 2%  
16 0% 0%  
17 0% 0%  
18 0% 0%  
19 0% 0%  
20 0% 0%  
21 0% 0% Last Result

Latvijas Reģionu apvienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Median
1 0% 0%  
2 0% 0%  
3 0% 0%  
4 0% 0%  
5 0% 0%  
6 0% 0%  
7 0% 0%  
8 0% 0% Last Result

Latvijas Krievu savienība

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Progresīvie

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresīvie page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 61 65 100% 63–68 61–68 61–68 61–69
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 38 54 98% 52–56 51–57 51–58 50–59
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība 40 53 90% 51–57 50–57 50–57 49–58
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par! 24 51 88% 50–54 49–55 49–55 48–56
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 61 52 70% 49–54 48–54 48–55 47–56
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 61 50 42% 48–53 46–53 46–53 45–55
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 45 47 2% 43–49 43–50 43–50 42–51
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 38 41 0% 39–43 38–43 38–44 37–46
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 38 39 0% 37–41 36–42 36–43 35–44
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība 61 37 0% 34–39 33–39 33–40 32–41
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! 24 36 0% 35–39 34–39 34–39 33–40
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV 24 35 0% 32–37 32–39 32–39 31–39

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.2% 100%  
61 5% 99.7% Last Result
62 5% 95%  
63 7% 90% Median
64 23% 83%  
65 23% 60%  
66 11% 36%  
67 9% 25%  
68 15% 16%  
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100% Last Result
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 1.5% 99.8%  
51 6% 98% Majority
52 8% 92%  
53 19% 84% Median
54 25% 65%  
55 21% 40%  
56 11% 19%  
57 5% 8%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.8% 1.1%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100% Last Result
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0% 100%  
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 100%  
49 2% 99.8%  
50 8% 98%  
51 7% 90% Majority
52 12% 83% Median
53 21% 71%  
54 23% 49%  
55 6% 27%  
56 10% 20%  
57 10% 10%  
58 0.5% 0.7%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0% 100%  
32 0% 100%  
33 0% 100%  
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 100%  
36 0% 100%  
37 0% 100%  
38 0% 100%  
39 0% 100%  
40 0% 100%  
41 0% 100%  
42 0% 100%  
43 0% 100%  
44 0% 100%  
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.2% 99.9%  
48 1.4% 99.7%  
49 4% 98%  
50 6% 94%  
51 48% 88% Median, Majority
52 17% 40%  
53 8% 24%  
54 11% 16%  
55 4% 5%  
56 0.8% 0.9%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.5% 99.9%  
48 5% 99.5%  
49 5% 95%  
50 20% 90% Median
51 15% 70% Majority
52 18% 55%  
53 20% 37%  
54 12% 17%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.4% 2%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.4% 99.9%  
46 5% 99.5%  
47 4% 95%  
48 12% 91% Median
49 23% 78%  
50 13% 55%  
51 18% 42% Majority
52 6% 24%  
53 16% 18%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.6%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0.1% 100%  
42 0.5% 99.9%  
43 10% 99.3%  
44 10% 89%  
45 6% 80% Last Result, Median
46 23% 73%  
47 21% 51%  
48 12% 29%  
49 7% 17%  
50 8% 10%  
51 2% 2% Majority
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.2% 99.9%  
37 2% 99.8%  
38 6% 98% Last Result
39 13% 92%  
40 29% 79% Median
41 20% 50%  
42 13% 30%  
43 13% 17%  
44 3% 5%  
45 0.6% 2%  
46 0.8% 1.0%  
47 0.2% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.2% 100%  
35 1.3% 99.8%  
36 7% 98%  
37 8% 92%  
38 17% 83% Last Result, Median
39 27% 66%  
40 23% 39%  
41 7% 16%  
42 6% 9%  
43 3% 4%  
44 0.7% 0.9%  
45 0.1% 0.2%  
46 0% 0%  

Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Vienotība – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.6% 99.9%  
33 5% 99.4%  
34 7% 94%  
35 20% 88% Median
36 14% 67%  
37 12% 53%  
38 21% 41%  
39 17% 20%  
40 2% 4%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  
44 0% 0%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0%  
50 0% 0%  
51 0% 0% Majority
52 0% 0%  
53 0% 0%  
54 0% 0%  
55 0% 0%  
56 0% 0%  
57 0% 0%  
58 0% 0%  
59 0% 0%  
60 0% 0%  
61 0% 0% Last Result

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par!

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0% 100%  
31 0.1% 100%  
32 0.2% 99.8%  
33 2% 99.6%  
34 3% 98%  
35 6% 94%  
36 38% 88% Median
37 27% 50%  
38 12% 23%  
39 9% 11%  
40 1.4% 2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0% 100% Last Result
25 0% 100%  
26 0% 100%  
27 0% 100%  
28 0% 100%  
29 0% 100%  
30 0.2% 100%  
31 1.3% 99.7%  
32 15% 98%  
33 9% 84%  
34 11% 75% Median
35 23% 64%  
36 23% 40%  
37 7% 17%  
38 5% 10%  
39 5% 5%  
40 0.2% 0.2%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations