Opinion Poll by FACTUM, 17–23 September 2018
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” | 23.0% | 19.2% | 18.2–20.3% | 17.9–20.6% | 17.6–20.8% | 17.2–21.4% |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 0.7% | 16.2% | 15.2–17.2% | 15.0–17.5% | 14.7–17.7% | 14.3–18.2% |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 19.5% | 12.1% | 11.3–13.0% | 11.1–13.3% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.5–14.0% |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 16.6% | 12.1% | 11.3–13.0% | 11.1–13.3% | 10.9–13.5% | 10.5–14.0% |
| KPV LV | 0.0% | 11.1% | 10.3–12.0% | 10.1–12.3% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% |
| Attīstībai–Par! | 0.9% | 11.1% | 10.3–12.0% | 10.1–12.3% | 9.9–12.5% | 9.6–12.9% |
| Vienotība | 21.9% | 9.1% | 8.4–9.9% | 8.2–10.1% | 8.0–10.3% | 7.7–10.7% |
| Latvijas Reģionu apvienība | 6.7% | 3.0% | 2.6–3.5% | 2.5–3.7% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% |
| Progresīvie | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” | 24 | 22 | 20–22 | 20–23 | 20–23 | 19–24 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija | 0 | 18 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–21 |
| Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 21 | 15 | 14–15 | 14–15 | 13–15 | 11–15 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” | 17 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 12–15 |
| KPV LV | 0 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 |
| Attīstībai–Par! | 0 | 12 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–14 |
| Vienotība | 23 | 9 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 9–10 | 8–12 |
| Latvijas Reģionu apvienība | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Latvijas Krievu savienība | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Progresīvie | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 20 | 11% | 99.4% | |
| 21 | 17% | 88% | |
| 22 | 62% | 71% | Median |
| 23 | 8% | 9% | |
| 24 | 1.5% | 1.5% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Jaunā konservatīvā partija page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 12% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 88% | |
| 17 | 23% | 85% | |
| 18 | 42% | 62% | Median |
| 19 | 17% | 19% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 98.6% | |
| 13 | 2% | 98% | |
| 14 | 45% | 95% | |
| 15 | 50% | 50% | Median |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK”
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 15% | 100% | |
| 13 | 73% | 85% | Median |
| 14 | 11% | 11% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
KPV LV
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the KPV LV page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 21% | 100% | |
| 11 | 26% | 79% | |
| 12 | 42% | 53% | Median |
| 13 | 4% | 12% | |
| 14 | 7% | 7% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Attīstībai–Par!
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Attīstībai–Par! page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 5% | 95% | |
| 12 | 44% | 90% | Median |
| 13 | 36% | 46% | |
| 14 | 10% | 10% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Vienotība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Vienotība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 59% | 98.6% | Median |
| 10 | 38% | 40% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Latvijas Reģionu apvienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Reģionu apvienība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Latvijas Krievu savienība
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Latvijas Krievu savienība page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Progresīvie
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Progresīvie page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība | 61 | 66 | 100% | 66–69 | 65–69 | 64–70 | 64–70 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! | 38 | 57 | 100% | 56–59 | 55–59 | 54–60 | 54–60 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība | 61 | 54 | 99.8% | 53–56 | 52–57 | 52–57 | 51–58 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība | 40 | 52 | 95% | 51–54 | 50–55 | 50–55 | 49–56 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par! | 24 | 52 | 87% | 50–53 | 50–53 | 49–53 | 48–54 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība | 61 | 49 | 21% | 48–51 | 47–52 | 47–52 | 46–53 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – KPV LV | 45 | 48 | 2% | 46–49 | 45–50 | 45–50 | 44–51 |
| Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība | 38 | 45 | 0% | 43–47 | 42–47 | 42–47 | 42–48 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! | 38 | 39 | 0% | 39–41 | 38–42 | 38–42 | 36–43 |
| Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība | 61 | 37 | 0% | 35–38 | 35–39 | 35–39 | 34–39 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par! | 24 | 34 | 0% | 33–35 | 31–36 | 31–36 | 30–36 |
| Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV | 24 | 34 | 0% | 31–34 | 31–35 | 30–36 | 30–36 |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 61 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 62 | 0% | 100% | |
| 63 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 64 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 65 | 5% | 96% | |
| 66 | 42% | 91% | |
| 67 | 21% | 49% | Median |
| 68 | 17% | 28% | |
| 69 | 6% | 11% | |
| 70 | 4% | 5% | |
| 71 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 72 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0% | 100% | |
| 49 | 0% | 100% | |
| 50 | 0% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0% | 100% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 100% | |
| 53 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 54 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 55 | 2% | 97% | |
| 56 | 12% | 94% | |
| 57 | 41% | 82% | |
| 58 | 22% | 41% | Median |
| 59 | 14% | 19% | |
| 60 | 4% | 5% | |
| 61 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 62 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 51 | 0.8% | 99.8% | Majority |
| 52 | 5% | 99.1% | |
| 53 | 20% | 94% | |
| 54 | 40% | 75% | |
| 55 | 9% | 35% | Median |
| 56 | 17% | 26% | |
| 57 | 7% | 8% | |
| 58 | 0.2% | 0.7% | |
| 59 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 49 | 1.3% | 99.8% | |
| 50 | 4% | 98% | |
| 51 | 9% | 95% | Majority |
| 52 | 53% | 86% | Median |
| 53 | 17% | 33% | |
| 54 | 9% | 16% | |
| 55 | 5% | 7% | |
| 56 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 57 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Attīstībai–Par!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0% | 100% | |
| 33 | 0% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0% | 100% | |
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0% | 100% | |
| 37 | 0% | 100% | |
| 38 | 0% | 100% | |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0% | 100% | |
| 42 | 0% | 100% | |
| 43 | 0% | 100% | |
| 44 | 0% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0% | 100% | |
| 46 | 0% | 100% | |
| 47 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 48 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 49 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 50 | 9% | 97% | |
| 51 | 27% | 87% | Majority |
| 52 | 39% | 61% | Median |
| 53 | 20% | 22% | |
| 54 | 2% | 2% | |
| 55 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par! – Vienotība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 45 | 0.1% | 99.9% | |
| 46 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 47 | 4% | 98% | |
| 48 | 36% | 95% | |
| 49 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 50 | 20% | 41% | |
| 51 | 14% | 21% | Majority |
| 52 | 7% | 7% | |
| 53 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – KPV LV
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 44 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 45 | 5% | 98.6% | Last Result |
| 46 | 9% | 93% | |
| 47 | 17% | 84% | |
| 48 | 53% | 67% | |
| 49 | 9% | 14% | Median |
| 50 | 4% | 5% | |
| 51 | 1.3% | 2% | Majority |
| 52 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% |
Jaunā konservatīvā partija – Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 39 | 0% | 100% | |
| 40 | 0% | 100% | |
| 41 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 42 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 43 | 10% | 95% | |
| 44 | 13% | 85% | |
| 45 | 41% | 71% | |
| 46 | 16% | 30% | Median |
| 47 | 13% | 14% | |
| 48 | 0.4% | 0.9% | |
| 49 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 50 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Attīstībai–Par!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 0% | 100% | |
| 36 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 99.5% | |
| 38 | 7% | 98% | Last Result |
| 39 | 42% | 91% | |
| 40 | 15% | 49% | Median |
| 41 | 25% | 34% | |
| 42 | 8% | 8% | |
| 43 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 44 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% |
Nacionālā apvienība „Visu Latvijai!”–„Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK” – Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība – Vienotība
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 33 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 34 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 35 | 11% | 99.1% | |
| 36 | 30% | 88% | |
| 37 | 33% | 58% | Median |
| 38 | 15% | 25% | |
| 39 | 9% | 10% | |
| 40 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 42 | 0% | 0% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% | |
| 44 | 0% | 0% | |
| 45 | 0% | 0% | |
| 46 | 0% | 0% | |
| 47 | 0% | 0% | |
| 48 | 0% | 0% | |
| 49 | 0% | 0% | |
| 50 | 0% | 0% | |
| 51 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
| 52 | 0% | 0% | |
| 53 | 0% | 0% | |
| 54 | 0% | 0% | |
| 55 | 0% | 0% | |
| 56 | 0% | 0% | |
| 57 | 0% | 0% | |
| 58 | 0% | 0% | |
| 59 | 0% | 0% | |
| 60 | 0% | 0% | |
| 61 | 0% | 0% | Last Result |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – Attīstībai–Par!
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 32 | 5% | 95% | |
| 33 | 12% | 90% | |
| 34 | 38% | 78% | Median |
| 35 | 30% | 40% | |
| 36 | 9% | 9% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” – KPV LV
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 31 | 6% | 95% | |
| 32 | 17% | 89% | |
| 33 | 21% | 72% | |
| 34 | 42% | 51% | Median |
| 35 | 5% | 9% | |
| 36 | 4% | 4% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: FACTUM
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 17–23 September 2018
Calculations
- Sample size: 2381
- Simulations done: 1,048,576
- Error estimate: 0.84%