Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for Delfi, 7–9 August 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 21.9% 20.3–23.6% 19.8–24.1% 19.4–24.6% 18.7–25.4%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 12.8% 11.6–14.3% 11.2–14.7% 10.9–15.1% 10.3–15.8%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 12.5% 11.3–14.0% 10.9–14.4% 10.6–14.7% 10.1–15.4%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 11.6% 10.4–13.0% 10.1–13.4% 9.8–13.8% 9.3–14.5%
Nemuno aušra (*) 0.0% 11.1% 10.0–12.5% 9.6–12.9% 9.3–13.2% 8.8–13.9%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 5.7% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.3% 4.0–7.8%
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.2% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.7% 2.9–6.2%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.2% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.1%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.5–4.2%
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.3–3.1% 1.1–3.4%
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.5–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (*) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 1
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 9% 100%  
3 91% 91% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 47% 100%  
2 53% 53% Median
3 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 26% 100%  
2 74% 74% Median
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 68% 68% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 83% 100% Median
2 17% 17%  
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 88% 88% Median
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 3 0% 3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) – Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) – Laisvės partija (RE) – Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 91% 94% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) – Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 47% 100%  
2 53% 53% Median
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 68% 68% Median
3 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 26% 100%  
2 74% 74% Median
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) – Laisvės partija (RE) – Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 85% 88% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 100% 100% Median

Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations