Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai, 6–20 September 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 22.2% 20.5–24.0% 20.0–24.6% 19.6–25.0% 18.8–25.9%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 16.7% 15.2–18.4% 14.8–18.9% 14.4–19.3% 13.7–20.1%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 13.8% 12.5–15.4% 12.1–15.9% 11.8–16.2% 11.1–17.0%
Nemuno aušra (*) 0.0% 11.5% 10.3–13.0% 9.9–13.4% 9.6–13.8% 9.0–14.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 11.3% 10.1–12.8% 9.7–13.2% 9.4–13.5% 8.9–14.3%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.7–6.7% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.3% 3.9–7.9%
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0.0% 5.3% 4.4–6.4% 4.2–6.7% 4.0–6.9% 3.6–7.5%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.0–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Darbo Partija (NI) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.1–3.5%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.8–3.1%
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–2.9%
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–2.0% 0.8–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.6–2.6%
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.5–2.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 3 3 3 3 2–4
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 1–2
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–2
Nemuno aušra (*) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 98% 98% Median
4 0.6% 0.6%  
5 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 100%  
2 99.0% 99.3% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 19% 100%  
2 81% 81% Median
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 94% 94% Median
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 22% 22%  
2 0% 0%  

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Darbo Partija (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–2
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) – Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 1 0% 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) – Laisvės partija (RE) – Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) 0 1 0% 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Darbo Partija (NI) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 77% 99.0% Median
4 22% 22%  
5 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 100%  
2 99.0% 99.3% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) – Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 97% 97% Median
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 93% 100% Median
2 7% 7%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) – Laisvės partija (RE) – Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 94% 94% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Darbo Partija (NI)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations