Opinion Poll by Vilmorus, 13–21 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 26.4% | 24.3–28.6% | 23.8–29.3% | 23.3–29.8% | 22.3–30.9% |
| Nemuno aušra (*) | 0.0% | 16.7% | 15.0–18.7% | 14.6–19.2% | 14.1–19.7% | 13.4–20.7% |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 13.3% | 11.8–15.1% | 11.3–15.6% | 10.9–16.0% | 10.3–16.9% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 9.5% | 8.2–11.1% | 7.9–11.6% | 7.6–11.9% | 7.0–12.7% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 7.8–10.6% | 7.5–11.1% | 7.2–11.5% | 6.6–12.3% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.4–8.9% | 6.0–9.4% | 5.8–9.7% | 5.3–10.4% |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.8–5.8% | 2.5–6.4% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.6–4.4% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.2–4.9% | 1.9–5.5% |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.1–3.7% | 1.9–4.0% | 1.8–4.3% | 1.5–4.8% |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.2–3.0% | 1.1–3.2% | 0.9–3.6% |
| Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.2–2.6% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.0% | 0.8–3.5% |
| Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.6–2.3% | 0.4–2.7% |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.9% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.6–2.3% | 0.4–2.7% |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.7% | 0.2–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Nemuno aušra (*) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 64% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 36% | 36% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Nemuno aušra (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 93% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 7% | 7% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 23% | 23% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.5% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 67% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 33% | 33% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 3–5 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) – Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) – Laisvės partija (RE) – Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 31% | 100% | Median |
| 4 | 68% | 69% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) – Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 77% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 23% | 23% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 97% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 3% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 97% | 97% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) – Laisvės partija (RE) – Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Vilmorus
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 13–21 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 693
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.91%