Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai, 30 October–12 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nemuno aušra (*) | 0.0% | 20.3% | 18.7–22.0% | 18.3–22.5% | 17.9–22.9% | 17.2–23.7% |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 18.8% | 17.3–20.5% | 16.9–20.9% | 16.5–21.3% | 15.9–22.1% |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 14.1% | 12.8–15.6% | 12.4–16.0% | 12.1–16.4% | 11.5–17.1% |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0.0% | 13.4% | 12.1–14.9% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.4% |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0.0% | 10.2% | 9.1–11.5% | 8.7–11.9% | 8.5–12.2% | 8.0–12.9% |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.5–8.6% | 5.1–9.2% |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.5–4.7% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.0–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.7–3.3% | 1.6–3.5% | 1.4–3.9% |
| Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.4% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.5–2.2% |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nemuno aušra (*) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Laisvės partija (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nemuno aušra (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 29% | 100% | |
| 3 | 71% | 71% | Median |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 83% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 17% | 17% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.2% | 99.2% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 99.7% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Darbo Partija (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 21% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Laisvės partija (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) – Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1–2 |
| Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) – Laisvės partija (RE) – Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 |
| Darbo Partija (NI) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 83% | 100% | Median |
| 3 | 17% | 17% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) – Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 2 | 99.2% | 99.2% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) – Laisvės partija (RE) – Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 98.9% | 100% | Median |
| 2 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Darbo Partija (NI)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 79% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 21% | 21% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Tautos ir teisingumo sąjunga (centristai, tautininkai) (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Baltijos tyrimai
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 30 October–12 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1020
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.57%