Opinion Poll by Vilmorus, 7–16 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 24.3% 22.6–26.1% 22.1–26.6% 21.7–27.1% 21.0–27.9%
Nemuno aušra (NI) 0.0% 20.7% 19.1–22.4% 18.7–22.9% 18.3–23.3% 17.6–24.2%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.4% 11.5–15.8% 10.9–16.5%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 11.8% 10.6–13.2% 10.2–13.6% 9.9–14.0% 9.4–14.6%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 10.8% 9.6–12.2% 9.3–12.5% 9.0–12.9% 8.5–13.6%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 9.6% 8.5–10.9% 8.2–11.3% 7.9–11.6% 7.4–12.2%
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 3 3 3 3 3
Nemuno aušra (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 99.4% 99.7% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 42% 100%  
3 58% 58% Median
4 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 8% 100%  
2 92% 92% Median
3 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 62% 100% Median
2 38% 38%  
3 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 89% 100% Median
2 11% 11%  
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98.5% 100% Median
2 1.5% 1.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partija „Laisvė ir teisingumas“ (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 62% 100% Median
2 38% 38%  
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98.5% 100% Median
2 1.5% 1.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations