Nemuno aušra (NI)
Voting Intentions
Last result: 0.0% (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 13.3% | 9.9–22.4% | 9.4–23.1% | 8.9–23.6% | 8.2–24.7% |
| 18–28 March 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
10.4% | 9.1–12.1% | 8.7–12.6% | 8.4–13.0% | 7.8–13.8% |
| 8–24 March 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai Elta |
13.2% | 11.9–14.7% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.3–15.5% | 10.7–16.2% |
| 14–23 February 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
21.7% | 20.1–23.4% | 19.6–23.9% | 19.3–24.4% | 18.5–25.2% |
| 25 January–8 February 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai Elta |
17.4% | 15.9–19.0% | 15.5–19.4% | 15.2–19.8% | 14.5–20.6% |
| 18–29 January 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
13.0% | 11.7–14.4% | 11.4–14.8% | 11.1–15.2% | 10.5–15.9% |
| 13–20 December 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12 November–1 December 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 17.1% | 15.7–18.7% | 15.2–19.1% | 14.9–19.5% | 14.2–20.3% |
| 7–16 November 2024 | Vilmorus | 20.7% | 19.1–22.4% | 18.7–22.9% | 18.3–23.3% | 17.6–24.2% |
| 30 October–12 November 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 20.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 16–25 September 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 13–21 September 2024 | Vilmorus | 16.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 6–20 September 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 11.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 7–9 August 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai Delfi |
11.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 19–29 July 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11–21 July 2024 | Vilmorus | 9.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 21 June–7 July 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai LRT |
9.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 18–28 June 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per percentage block of voting intentions for the poll average for Nemuno aušra (NI).
| Voting Intentions | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.0–0.5% | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 0.5–1.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 1.5–2.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 2.5–3.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 3.5–4.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 4.5–5.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 5.5–6.5% | 0% | 100% | |
| 6.5–7.5% | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7.5–8.5% | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 8.5–9.5% | 5% | 98.8% | |
| 9.5–10.5% | 10% | 93% | |
| 10.5–11.5% | 11% | 83% | |
| 11.5–12.5% | 11% | 72% | |
| 12.5–13.5% | 13% | 60% | Median |
| 13.5–14.5% | 10% | 47% | |
| 14.5–15.5% | 3% | 37% | |
| 15.5–16.5% | 0.6% | 34% | |
| 16.5–17.5% | 0.1% | 33% | |
| 17.5–18.5% | 0.2% | 33% | |
| 18.5–19.5% | 1.2% | 33% | |
| 19.5–20.5% | 4% | 32% | |
| 20.5–21.5% | 9% | 27% | |
| 21.5–22.5% | 10% | 19% | |
| 22.5–23.5% | 6% | 9% | |
| 23.5–24.5% | 2% | 3% | |
| 24.5–25.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 25.5–26.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26.5–27.5% | 0% | 0% |
Seats
Last result: 0 seats (General Election of 9 June 2024)
Confidence Intervals
| Period | Polling firm/Commissioner(s) | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N/A | Poll Average | 2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| 18–28 March 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 8–24 March 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai Elta |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 14–23 February 2025 | Vilmorus Lietuvos Rytas |
2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 25 January–8 February 2025 | Baltijos tyrimai Elta |
2 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 18–29 January 2025 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| 13–20 December 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
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| 12 November–1 December 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 7–16 November 2024 | Vilmorus | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| 30 October–12 November 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | |||||
| 16–25 September 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
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| 13–21 September 2024 | Vilmorus | |||||
| 6–20 September 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai | |||||
| 7–9 August 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai Delfi |
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| 19–29 July 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
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| 11–21 July 2024 | Vilmorus | |||||
| 21 June–7 July 2024 | Baltijos tyrimai LRT |
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| 18–28 June 2024 | Spinter tyrimai Delfi |
Probability Mass Function
The following table shows the probability mass function per seat for the poll average for Nemuno aušra (NI).
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 36% | 100% | |
| 2 | 56% | 64% | Median |
| 3 | 9% | 9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |