Opinion Poll by Baltijos tyrimai for Elta, 25 January–8 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0.0% 22.6% 21.0–24.3% 20.5–24.8% 20.1–25.2% 19.4–26.1%
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 17.9% 16.4–19.5% 16.0–19.9% 15.6–20.3% 15.0–21.1%
Nemuno aušra (NI) 0.0% 17.4% 15.9–19.0% 15.5–19.4% 15.2–19.8% 14.5–20.6%
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0.0% 11.7% 10.5–13.1% 10.1–13.5% 9.8–13.8% 9.3–14.5%
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0.0% 10.6% 9.4–11.9% 9.1–12.3% 8.9–12.7% 8.3–13.3%
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.5%
Laisvės partija (RE) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.8% 1.5–3.0% 1.4–3.1% 1.2–3.5%
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0.0% 2.0% 1.5–2.7% 1.4–2.8% 1.3–3.0% 1.1–3.4%
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.1%
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.1% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) 0 3 3 3 2–3 2–3
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Nemuno aušra (NI) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 2–3
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Laisvės partija (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 95% 96% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 89% 100% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Nemuno aušra (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nemuno aušra (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 92% 100% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 67% 100% Median
2 33% 33%  
3 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Liberalų Sąjūdis (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 24% 100% Last Result
1 76% 76% Median
2 0% 0%  

Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Laisvės partija (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Laisvės partija (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nacionalinis Susivienijimas (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) – Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D) 0 3 0% 3 3 2–3 2–3
Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP) 0 1 0% 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Demokratų sąjunga „Vardan Lietuvos“ (Greens/EFA) – Lietuvos Žaliųjų Partija (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 89% 100% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Lietuvos socialdemokratų partija (S&D) – Lietuvos regionų partija (S&D)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 95% 96% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lietuvos valstiečių ir žaliųjų sąjunga (ECR) – Lietuvos lenkų rinkimų akcija (ECR)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 85% 100% Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0%  

Tėvynės sąjunga–Lietuvos krikščionys demokratai (EPP)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 67% 100% Median
2 33% 33%  
3 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations