Opinion Poll by Sentio, 12–18 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.8% 24.9–28.9% 24.4–29.5% 23.9–30.0% 23.0–31.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.2% 24.3–28.3% 23.7–28.9% 23.3–29.4% 22.4–30.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.7% 13.2–16.4% 12.8–16.9% 12.4–17.4% 11.8–18.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.4% 10.0–12.9% 9.7–13.4% 9.3–13.7% 8.7–14.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.4% 5.4–7.6% 5.1–8.0% 4.9–8.3% 4.4–8.9%
Venstre 4.4% 3.9% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.5% 2.4–6.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.5% 2.4–6.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Rødt 2.4% 2.4% 1.8–3.2% 1.6–3.5% 1.5–3.7% 1.3–4.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 45–52 44–53 43–55 41–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 44–52 43–53 42–54 40–56
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 24–30 23–31 22–32 21–33
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–24 17–24 17–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 9–14 9–15 8–16
Venstre 8 3 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.7%  
42 1.3% 99.1%  
43 2% 98%  
44 4% 96%  
45 7% 92% Last Result
46 9% 85%  
47 11% 76%  
48 13% 65%  
49 23% 53% Median
50 5% 30%  
51 10% 25%  
52 6% 15%  
53 5% 9%  
54 1.2% 5%  
55 0.9% 3%  
56 2% 2%  
57 0.2% 0.6%  
58 0.1% 0.3%  
59 0.1% 0.3%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.9%  
41 1.1% 99.4%  
42 3% 98%  
43 5% 96%  
44 5% 91%  
45 11% 85%  
46 9% 75%  
47 14% 66%  
48 22% 52% Median
49 9% 30% Last Result
50 6% 22%  
51 3% 16%  
52 8% 13%  
53 2% 5%  
54 2% 3%  
55 1.0% 1.5%  
56 0.3% 0.5%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.6% 99.7%  
22 3% 99.1%  
23 4% 97%  
24 11% 93%  
25 10% 82%  
26 18% 72%  
27 9% 55% Last Result, Median
28 14% 46%  
29 18% 32%  
30 6% 14%  
31 5% 8%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.5% 0.8%  
34 0.2% 0.2%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.2% 99.9%  
16 0.7% 99.6%  
17 5% 98.9%  
18 10% 94%  
19 13% 84% Last Result
20 28% 71% Median
21 13% 43%  
22 9% 29%  
23 8% 20%  
24 8% 12%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.9% 1.3%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 1.3% 99.9%  
9 4% 98.6%  
10 15% 94%  
11 28% 80% Last Result
12 25% 52% Median
13 14% 26%  
14 8% 12%  
15 2% 4%  
16 1.1% 2%  
17 0.2% 0.4%  
18 0.2% 0.2%  
19 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 46% 99.6%  
3 7% 54% Median
4 0% 46%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0% 46%  
7 8% 46%  
8 24% 38% Last Result
9 11% 14%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 9% 99.7%  
2 3% 91%  
3 43% 88% Median
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0% 45%  
7 18% 45%  
8 17% 27% Last Result
9 7% 10%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.7% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 42% 99.6% Last Result
2 42% 58% Median
3 2% 16%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 0% 14%  
7 6% 14%  
8 6% 8%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 66% 99.5% Last Result, Median
2 33% 33%  
3 0% 0.5%  
4 0% 0.5%  
5 0% 0.5%  
6 0% 0.5%  
7 0.2% 0.5%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 107 100% 101–110 100–111 99–113 96–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 83% 83–93 82–94 81–95 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 87 76% 82–92 81–94 80–95 78–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 86 61% 80–90 80–92 78–92 75–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 83 39% 79–89 77–89 77–91 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 82 27% 78–88 76–88 75–90 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 17% 76–86 75–87 74–88 72–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 16% 76–86 74–87 72–88 71–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 13% 75–85 73–86 73–87 71–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 76 0.9% 70–80 69–82 69–83 66–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 76 0.4% 70–80 69–81 68–83 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.2% 68–77 67–79 65–80 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 63–73 62–74 61–75 60–77
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 58 0% 53–63 52–65 51–67 49–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 56–64 54–66 52–66 50–68
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 30 0% 25–35 24–37 24–39 21–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.2% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.7%  
97 0.4% 99.5%  
98 2% 99.0%  
99 2% 98%  
100 5% 96%  
101 3% 91%  
102 4% 88% Median
103 7% 84%  
104 9% 77%  
105 5% 68%  
106 9% 63%  
107 20% 54% Last Result
108 14% 34%  
109 5% 20%  
110 6% 15%  
111 5% 9%  
112 1.5% 4%  
113 1.2% 3%  
114 0.4% 1.4%  
115 0.7% 1.0%  
116 0.1% 0.3%  
117 0.2% 0.2%  
118 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.7%  
79 1.0% 99.3%  
80 0.8% 98%  
81 1.4% 98%  
82 5% 96%  
83 4% 91%  
84 3% 86% Median
85 10% 83% Majority
86 6% 74%  
87 9% 67%  
88 18% 58%  
89 7% 40% Last Result
90 11% 33%  
91 7% 22%  
92 4% 14%  
93 3% 11%  
94 3% 8%  
95 2% 5%  
96 1.4% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.8%  
98 0.2% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.6% 99.7%  
79 1.2% 99.1%  
80 1.1% 98%  
81 6% 97%  
82 5% 91%  
83 4% 86%  
84 6% 82%  
85 9% 76% Median, Majority
86 5% 68%  
87 20% 63%  
88 8% 43% Last Result
89 7% 35%  
90 8% 28%  
91 9% 20%  
92 3% 12%  
93 3% 8%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.2% 3%  
96 1.4% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.7%  
76 0.6% 99.4%  
77 1.2% 98.8%  
78 0.6% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 7% 95%  
81 5% 88%  
82 4% 83% Median
83 10% 79%  
84 9% 70%  
85 6% 61% Majority
86 9% 55%  
87 19% 46%  
88 7% 27% Last Result
89 7% 20%  
90 6% 13%  
91 2% 7%  
92 3% 5%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.8% 1.4%  
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.6%  
75 0.8% 99.4%  
76 1.0% 98.6%  
77 3% 98%  
78 2% 95%  
79 6% 93%  
80 7% 87%  
81 7% 80% Last Result
82 19% 73%  
83 9% 54% Median
84 6% 45%  
85 9% 39% Majority
86 10% 30%  
87 4% 21%  
88 5% 17%  
89 7% 12%  
90 2% 5%  
91 0.6% 3%  
92 1.2% 2%  
93 0.6% 1.2%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.6%  
74 1.0% 99.3%  
75 1.1% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 2% 94%  
78 7% 92%  
79 7% 85%  
80 18% 78% Last Result
81 9% 60%  
82 9% 51% Median
83 6% 42%  
84 9% 36%  
85 8% 27% Majority
86 3% 19%  
87 6% 16%  
88 6% 10%  
89 2% 4%  
90 0.5% 3%  
91 1.2% 2%  
92 0.5% 1.0%  
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.7%  
73 1.4% 99.2%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 95%  
76 3% 92%  
77 4% 89%  
78 7% 86%  
79 11% 78%  
80 7% 67% Last Result
81 18% 60% Median
82 9% 42%  
83 6% 33%  
84 10% 26%  
85 3% 17% Majority
86 4% 14%  
87 5% 9%  
88 1.4% 4%  
89 0.8% 2%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.1% 99.7%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 2% 99.1%  
73 1.1% 97%  
74 2% 96%  
75 4% 94%  
76 3% 90%  
77 9% 87%  
78 7% 78%  
79 8% 71% Median
80 21% 63% Last Result
81 7% 42%  
82 6% 35%  
83 8% 29%  
84 5% 21%  
85 2% 16% Majority
86 6% 14%  
87 5% 8%  
88 1.2% 3%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.6% 0.8%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 1.5% 99.1%  
73 3% 98%  
74 3% 95%  
75 3% 92%  
76 6% 89%  
77 8% 83%  
78 10% 76%  
79 21% 66% Last Result
80 7% 45% Median
81 8% 38%  
82 8% 31%  
83 7% 23%  
84 3% 16%  
85 4% 13% Majority
86 5% 9%  
87 1.0% 3%  
88 0.8% 2%  
89 0.9% 1.5%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.3%  
68 0.7% 98.6%  
69 7% 98%  
70 3% 91%  
71 5% 88%  
72 5% 83%  
73 7% 78% Median
74 8% 72%  
75 8% 64%  
76 19% 56%  
77 8% 37% Last Result
78 8% 29%  
79 6% 20%  
80 5% 14%  
81 3% 9%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.2% 4%  
84 1.4% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.9% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 0.8% 99.4%  
68 1.3% 98.6%  
69 3% 97%  
70 6% 95%  
71 3% 88%  
72 9% 85% Last Result
73 5% 76%  
74 10% 71%  
75 8% 61%  
76 5% 52% Median
77 11% 48%  
78 19% 36%  
79 5% 17%  
80 5% 12%  
81 3% 7%  
82 1.3% 4%  
83 0.6% 3%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.1% 0.4% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 2% 99.5%  
66 2% 97%  
67 3% 96%  
68 8% 93%  
69 4% 85%  
70 6% 81%  
71 7% 75% Median
72 9% 68%  
73 6% 59%  
74 11% 53%  
75 18% 42%  
76 8% 24% Last Result
77 8% 16%  
78 3% 8%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.1% 3%  
81 0.7% 2%  
82 0.3% 1.1%  
83 0.5% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.6%  
61 2% 99.0%  
62 4% 97%  
63 3% 93%  
64 3% 90%  
65 9% 87%  
66 8% 78%  
67 8% 70%  
68 21% 61% Last Result, Median
69 10% 41%  
70 6% 31%  
71 8% 24%  
72 5% 16%  
73 5% 11%  
74 2% 6%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.2% 0.7%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 0.4% 99.6%  
50 1.0% 99.2%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 6% 93%  
54 5% 87%  
55 4% 82% Median
56 7% 78%  
57 4% 71%  
58 19% 66%  
59 9% 48%  
60 9% 38%  
61 7% 29% Last Result
62 6% 22%  
63 8% 16%  
64 2% 8%  
65 2% 6%  
66 1.0% 4%  
67 1.1% 3%  
68 1.5% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.5%  
52 1.5% 98.9%  
53 1.2% 97%  
54 2% 96%  
55 4% 94%  
56 10% 90%  
57 10% 81%  
58 7% 70%  
59 27% 63%  
60 9% 36% Last Result, Median
61 5% 27%  
62 5% 22%  
63 3% 16%  
64 5% 13%  
65 2% 8%  
66 5% 6%  
67 0.4% 2%  
68 1.2% 1.5%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.2%  
23 1.3% 98.9%  
24 4% 98%  
25 4% 93%  
26 8% 90% Median
27 5% 82%  
28 6% 77%  
29 17% 71%  
30 7% 53%  
31 7% 47%  
32 6% 39%  
33 9% 33%  
34 8% 24%  
35 8% 17% Last Result
36 2% 9%  
37 3% 7%  
38 2% 4%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.6% 1.0%  
41 0.3% 0.4%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations