Opinion Poll by Norstat, 19–25 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.1% 23.4–27.0% 22.8–27.5% 22.4–28.0% 21.6–28.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.9% 23.1–26.8% 22.6–27.3% 22.2–27.8% 21.4–28.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.1% 13.6–16.7% 13.2–17.1% 12.9–17.5% 12.3–18.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.3% 10.1–12.8% 9.7–13.2% 9.4–13.5% 8.9–14.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.5% 6.0–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.3–9.7%
Venstre 4.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.3% 3.2–6.8%
Rødt 2.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.3–4.5% 2.0–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 42–49 41–49 40–51 39–53
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–49 41–50 41–51 40–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 25–30 24–31 23–32 22–33
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–23 18–24 17–24 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 11–15 11–16 11–17 10–18
Venstre 8 9 7–10 3–10 2–11 2–12
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–3 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.8%  
39 0.6% 99.6%  
40 3% 99.1%  
41 3% 96%  
42 7% 93%  
43 8% 87%  
44 14% 78%  
45 19% 65% Last Result, Median
46 16% 45%  
47 6% 29%  
48 7% 23%  
49 12% 17%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.2% 3%  
52 0.8% 1.4%  
53 0.5% 0.6%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.6%  
41 3% 98%  
42 9% 95%  
43 12% 86%  
44 10% 74%  
45 16% 64% Median
46 21% 47%  
47 7% 27%  
48 8% 20%  
49 5% 12% Last Result
50 3% 7%  
51 3% 4%  
52 0.7% 1.3%  
53 0.5% 0.7%  
54 0.1% 0.2%  
55 0.1% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.1%  
24 4% 97%  
25 16% 93%  
26 16% 77%  
27 22% 61% Last Result, Median
28 12% 39%  
29 10% 27%  
30 11% 17%  
31 3% 6%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.8% 1.1%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.7%  
17 3% 98.9%  
18 10% 96%  
19 14% 86% Last Result
20 20% 72%  
21 18% 52% Median
22 16% 34%  
23 11% 18%  
24 6% 7%  
25 1.0% 2%  
26 0.5% 0.7%  
27 0.1% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 2% 99.7%  
11 8% 98% Last Result
12 16% 89%  
13 23% 73%  
14 25% 51% Median
15 16% 26%  
16 6% 10%  
17 2% 4%  
18 1.1% 1.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 3% 100%  
3 3% 97%  
4 0% 94%  
5 0% 94%  
6 0% 94%  
7 12% 94%  
8 10% 82% Last Result
9 46% 72% Median
10 24% 26%  
11 1.5% 3%  
12 1.1% 1.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100% Last Result
2 61% 95% Median
3 0% 34%  
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 0% 34%  
7 10% 34%  
8 17% 23%  
9 5% 6%  
10 1.0% 1.1%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 24% 98%  
2 11% 75%  
3 52% 64% Median
4 0% 12%  
5 0% 12%  
6 0% 12%  
7 6% 12%  
8 6% 6% Last Result
9 0.4% 0.7%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 68% 97% Last Result, Median
2 25% 29%  
3 2% 4%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 1.0% 2%  
8 1.1% 1.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 105 100% 100–109 99–110 97–111 95–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 85 54% 81–89 79–90 78–92 76–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 85 58% 82–90 80–91 78–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 84 42% 79–87 78–89 77–91 75–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 84 46% 80–88 79–90 77–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 40% 80–88 78–89 77–90 75–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 15% 77–85 76–86 74–88 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 14% 76–85 75–87 74–87 73–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 6% 75–84 74–85 73–86 71–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0% 69–76 68–78 67–79 65–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 70 0% 67–74 65–76 64–78 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 65–73 64–75 63–76 61–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 62–70 61–71 60–72 59–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 52–66
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 57 0% 53–61 52–62 51–63 48–65
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 32 0% 29–36 28–37 26–38 23–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.7%  
96 0.9% 99.4%  
97 1.1% 98.5%  
98 1.5% 97%  
99 2% 96%  
100 6% 94%  
101 6% 88%  
102 10% 82%  
103 7% 72%  
104 11% 65%  
105 11% 54% Median
106 10% 43%  
107 9% 33% Last Result
108 6% 24%  
109 9% 18%  
110 5% 9%  
111 2% 4%  
112 0.8% 2%  
113 0.7% 1.0%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.8%  
77 0.6% 99.3%  
78 2% 98.7%  
79 2% 97%  
80 3% 95%  
81 6% 91% Last Result
82 13% 85%  
83 9% 73% Median
84 10% 64%  
85 7% 54% Majority
86 17% 47%  
87 9% 31%  
88 10% 22%  
89 4% 12%  
90 3% 8%  
91 1.4% 4%  
92 1.0% 3%  
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.3% 0.7%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.8%  
77 0.7% 99.4%  
78 1.4% 98.7%  
79 1.0% 97%  
80 3% 96%  
81 3% 94%  
82 8% 90%  
83 10% 83%  
84 15% 73%  
85 8% 58% Median, Majority
86 10% 50%  
87 8% 40%  
88 13% 32%  
89 8% 19% Last Result
90 4% 10%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.6% 1.1%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.6% 99.5%  
76 0.9% 98.9%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 4% 94%  
80 8% 90% Last Result
81 13% 81%  
82 8% 68% Median
83 10% 60%  
84 8% 50%  
85 15% 42% Majority
86 10% 27%  
87 8% 17%  
88 3% 10%  
89 3% 6%  
90 1.0% 4%  
91 1.4% 3%  
92 0.7% 1.3%  
93 0.4% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 1.3% 99.3%  
77 1.0% 98%  
78 1.4% 97%  
79 3% 96%  
80 4% 92%  
81 10% 88%  
82 9% 78%  
83 17% 69%  
84 7% 53% Median
85 10% 46% Majority
86 9% 36%  
87 13% 27%  
88 6% 15% Last Result
89 3% 9%  
90 2% 5%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.6% 1.3%  
93 0.5% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.9% 99.9%  
76 1.4% 99.0%  
77 0.9% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 94%  
80 4% 92%  
81 8% 88%  
82 15% 81%  
83 17% 65%  
84 8% 48% Median
85 8% 40% Majority
86 8% 31%  
87 10% 23%  
88 6% 13% Last Result
89 3% 7%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.8% 1.3%  
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.7% 99.5%  
74 1.3% 98.8%  
75 2% 97%  
76 4% 96%  
77 3% 92%  
78 8% 89%  
79 8% 81%  
80 20% 73% Last Result
81 8% 52% Median
82 8% 44%  
83 9% 36%  
84 12% 28%  
85 8% 15% Majority
86 3% 8%  
87 1.4% 5%  
88 2% 3%  
89 1.1% 2%  
90 0.3% 0.7%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.3% 99.9%  
73 1.1% 99.6%  
74 2% 98.5%  
75 2% 96%  
76 4% 94%  
77 3% 90%  
78 7% 87%  
79 12% 80%  
80 16% 68% Last Result
81 10% 52% Median
82 10% 41%  
83 6% 31%  
84 10% 25%  
85 7% 14% Majority
86 3% 8%  
87 3% 5%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.2%  
90 0.4% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.9%  
72 1.4% 99.3%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 95%  
75 4% 93%  
76 4% 89%  
77 11% 85%  
78 12% 74%  
79 17% 63% Last Result
80 9% 46% Median
81 9% 37%  
82 7% 28%  
83 9% 21%  
84 7% 13%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 1.4% 3%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.2% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.8% 99.6%  
66 1.1% 98.8%  
67 1.5% 98%  
68 3% 96%  
69 8% 94%  
70 7% 85%  
71 18% 78%  
72 7% 60% Last Result, Median
73 13% 54%  
74 13% 40%  
75 13% 27%  
76 6% 14%  
77 3% 8%  
78 1.4% 5%  
79 2% 4%  
80 0.9% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.8%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 1.2% 99.6%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 96%  
66 3% 94%  
67 6% 90%  
68 13% 85%  
69 10% 71%  
70 16% 61% Median
71 11% 45%  
72 13% 34%  
73 8% 21%  
74 3% 13%  
75 2% 9%  
76 3% 7%  
77 1.1% 4% Last Result
78 2% 3%  
79 0.6% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.7%  
62 1.2% 99.4%  
63 3% 98%  
64 3% 96%  
65 5% 92%  
66 7% 87%  
67 11% 80%  
68 15% 69%  
69 14% 55% Median
70 11% 41%  
71 13% 30%  
72 6% 17%  
73 2% 10%  
74 2% 8%  
75 3% 6%  
76 0.6% 3% Last Result
77 2% 2%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 2% 99.1%  
61 3% 97%  
62 6% 94%  
63 5% 88%  
64 12% 83%  
65 17% 71%  
66 12% 54% Median
67 10% 42%  
68 13% 32% Last Result
69 7% 19%  
70 7% 12%  
71 2% 6%  
72 1.4% 3%  
73 0.8% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.9%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.2% 99.9%  
52 0.8% 99.7%  
53 2% 98.9%  
54 3% 97%  
55 7% 94%  
56 10% 87%  
57 15% 78%  
58 8% 63%  
59 13% 54% Median
60 12% 41% Last Result
61 13% 30%  
62 3% 17%  
63 6% 14%  
64 5% 8%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.9% 1.3%  
67 0.1% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.7%  
48 0.4% 99.5%  
49 0.5% 99.1%  
50 1.1% 98.6%  
51 2% 98%  
52 5% 96%  
53 4% 91%  
54 10% 87%  
55 9% 77%  
56 15% 68%  
57 14% 53% Median
58 8% 39%  
59 9% 31%  
60 5% 22%  
61 7% 17% Last Result
62 6% 10%  
63 2% 4%  
64 0.9% 2%  
65 0.5% 0.9%  
66 0.2% 0.4%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.4% 99.8%  
24 0.7% 99.4%  
25 0.5% 98.8%  
26 1.1% 98%  
27 1.4% 97%  
28 4% 96%  
29 8% 91%  
30 11% 84%  
31 10% 73%  
32 22% 63%  
33 12% 41% Median
34 7% 29%  
35 9% 22% Last Result
36 6% 13%  
37 3% 6%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.6% 1.4%  
40 0.6% 0.9%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations