Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 25–27 September 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.1% 24.3–28.0% 23.8–28.5% 23.4–29.0% 22.5–29.9%
Høyre 25.0% 24.4% 22.6–26.3% 22.2–26.8% 21.7–27.3% 20.9–28.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.4% 13.0–16.0% 12.7–16.5% 12.3–16.8% 11.7–17.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.2% 9.0–11.5% 8.7–11.9% 8.4–12.3% 7.8–13.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.3% 5.4–9.9%
Venstre 4.4% 5.3% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.3–4.7% 2.1–5.1%
Rødt 2.4% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 44–51 43–52 42–53 41–55
Høyre 45 45 41–48 40–49 39–49 38–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–29 23–30 22–31 21–32
Senterpartiet 19 19 16–21 16–22 15–22 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 11–16 10–17 10–18
Venstre 8 10 8–11 8–12 7–13 2–14
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.9%  
42 2% 99.3%  
43 4% 97%  
44 7% 93%  
45 17% 86%  
46 7% 70%  
47 15% 63% Median
48 8% 48%  
49 17% 40% Last Result
50 8% 23%  
51 7% 15%  
52 2% 7%  
53 3% 5%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.6% 0.9%  
56 0.3% 0.3%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.9%  
40 4% 97%  
41 8% 93%  
42 10% 85%  
43 5% 75%  
44 7% 69%  
45 26% 63% Last Result, Median
46 18% 36%  
47 7% 19%  
48 6% 11%  
49 3% 5%  
50 1.0% 2%  
51 0.5% 1.1%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.3% 0.3%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.9% 99.7%  
22 2% 98.8%  
23 5% 97%  
24 12% 92%  
25 20% 81%  
26 19% 61% Median
27 13% 42% Last Result
28 13% 29%  
29 9% 15%  
30 3% 6%  
31 1.4% 3%  
32 0.9% 1.2%  
33 0.2% 0.3%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.7% 99.9%  
15 3% 99.2%  
16 9% 96%  
17 17% 87%  
18 18% 71%  
19 24% 53% Last Result, Median
20 17% 28%  
21 6% 12%  
22 4% 5%  
23 1.1% 2%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 3% 99.8%  
11 7% 97% Last Result
12 18% 90%  
13 25% 72% Median
14 23% 47%  
15 17% 24%  
16 5% 8%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.9% 1.1%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 1.2% 100%  
3 0.4% 98.8%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 1.4% 98%  
8 8% 97% Last Result
9 22% 89%  
10 29% 67% Median
11 28% 38%  
12 7% 10%  
13 2% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.6%  
15 0.1% 0.1%  
16 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 6% 99.8%  
2 10% 94%  
3 46% 84% Median
4 0% 38%  
5 0% 38%  
6 0% 38%  
7 4% 38%  
8 24% 34% Last Result
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 31% 99.8% Last Result
2 52% 69% Median
3 2% 17%  
4 0.4% 15%  
5 0% 15%  
6 0% 15%  
7 5% 15%  
8 8% 9%  
9 1.5% 2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 63% 99.9% Last Result, Median
2 36% 37%  
3 0% 1.2%  
4 0% 1.2%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0% 1.2%  
7 0.5% 1.1%  
8 0.5% 0.6%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 104 100% 100–108 98–109 97–110 95–112
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 85% 84–92 82–93 81–95 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 87 77% 83–91 82–93 81–94 79–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 85 66% 81–90 80–91 78–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 84 33% 79–88 78–89 77–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 82 21% 78–86 76–88 76–89 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 15% 77–85 76–87 74–88 73–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 7% 76–84 75–86 74–86 72–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 7% 75–84 74–85 73–86 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0.4% 70–78 68–80 68–81 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 66–75 66–77 65–78 63–80
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0% 67–74 66–75 64–76 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 62–70 61–71 60–73 59–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 65 0% 61–69 60–71 59–72 57–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 61 0% 58–65 56–66 55–67 53–69
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 59 0% 55–64 53–65 52–66 49–67
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 33 0% 29–37 28–39 27–40 25–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.3% 99.8%  
95 0.5% 99.5%  
96 0.4% 99.0%  
97 2% 98.6%  
98 3% 97%  
99 3% 94%  
100 3% 90%  
101 9% 87%  
102 12% 78%  
103 7% 66% Median
104 11% 59%  
105 10% 48%  
106 11% 37%  
107 10% 26% Last Result
108 9% 16%  
109 3% 6%  
110 1.3% 3%  
111 1.5% 2%  
112 0.4% 0.5%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.7%  
80 0.6% 99.2%  
81 2% 98.6%  
82 3% 97%  
83 3% 94%  
84 6% 91%  
85 6% 85% Majority
86 9% 79% Median
87 13% 70%  
88 12% 58%  
89 10% 46% Last Result
90 13% 36%  
91 8% 23%  
92 6% 15%  
93 5% 9%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.1% 3%  
96 1.2% 2%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.5%  
80 1.0% 99.0%  
81 1.3% 98%  
82 3% 97%  
83 10% 94%  
84 7% 84% Median
85 14% 77% Majority
86 12% 64%  
87 14% 52%  
88 14% 38% Last Result
89 6% 24%  
90 5% 18%  
91 5% 13%  
92 3% 8%  
93 2% 5%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.8% 2%  
96 0.5% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.7%  
77 0.9% 99.3%  
78 1.0% 98%  
79 2% 97%  
80 3% 95%  
81 3% 92%  
82 6% 89%  
83 10% 83%  
84 7% 73% Median
85 17% 66% Majority
86 10% 49%  
87 12% 39%  
88 9% 27% Last Result
89 8% 19%  
90 4% 11%  
91 2% 7%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.5% 1.3%  
94 0.5% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.7%  
76 0.5% 99.2%  
77 3% 98.7%  
78 3% 96%  
79 4% 93%  
80 8% 89%  
81 9% 81% Last Result
82 12% 72% Median
83 10% 61%  
84 17% 50%  
85 7% 33% Majority
86 10% 26%  
87 6% 17%  
88 3% 11%  
89 3% 8%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.0% 3%  
92 0.9% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.7%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.5% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 1.0% 99.0%  
76 3% 98%  
77 5% 95%  
78 4% 90%  
79 7% 86%  
80 15% 80% Last Result
81 8% 64% Median
82 11% 56%  
83 14% 45%  
84 10% 31%  
85 7% 21% Majority
86 5% 14%  
87 3% 9%  
88 2% 6%  
89 1.4% 4%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.4% 1.0%  
92 0.4% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 1.2% 99.7%  
74 1.1% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 5% 95%  
77 6% 91%  
78 8% 85%  
79 13% 77%  
80 10% 64% Last Result, Median
81 12% 54%  
82 13% 42%  
83 9% 30%  
84 6% 21%  
85 6% 15% Majority
86 3% 9%  
87 3% 6%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.6% 1.3%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 0.8% 99.5%  
73 1.0% 98.7%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 3% 93%  
77 5% 90%  
78 5% 84%  
79 6% 79%  
80 17% 73% Last Result
81 11% 56% Median
82 14% 45%  
83 13% 31%  
84 11% 18%  
85 2% 7% Majority
86 3% 5%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.5%  
89 0.5% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.2% 100%  
71 0.7% 99.8%  
72 1.0% 99.0%  
73 1.5% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 5% 94%  
76 8% 89%  
77 6% 81%  
78 19% 74%  
79 5% 55% Last Result, Median
80 13% 50%  
81 10% 37%  
82 11% 27%  
83 3% 16%  
84 7% 13%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 1.0% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.1%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.6%  
66 0.7% 99.1%  
67 0.8% 98%  
68 4% 98%  
69 2% 94%  
70 7% 92%  
71 16% 85% Median
72 11% 69%  
73 13% 58%  
74 19% 46%  
75 4% 26%  
76 7% 22%  
77 3% 15% Last Result
78 4% 12%  
79 3% 8%  
80 2% 5%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.7% 1.5%  
83 0.3% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.5%  
85 0.3% 0.4% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.2% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 1.4% 98.9%  
65 2% 98%  
66 6% 96%  
67 4% 90%  
68 7% 86%  
69 16% 79% Median
70 10% 62%  
71 9% 52%  
72 18% 43%  
73 7% 25%  
74 6% 17%  
75 2% 11%  
76 4% 9% Last Result
77 2% 5%  
78 1.4% 3%  
79 0.8% 1.5%  
80 0.2% 0.7%  
81 0.4% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.8% 99.5%  
64 1.2% 98.7%  
65 2% 97%  
66 4% 95%  
67 5% 91%  
68 6% 86%  
69 9% 80%  
70 9% 71%  
71 19% 62% Median
72 15% 43% Last Result
73 12% 28%  
74 8% 15%  
75 4% 8%  
76 2% 4%  
77 1.4% 2%  
78 0.6% 1.1%  
79 0.3% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 1.2% 99.6%  
60 3% 98%  
61 4% 95%  
62 3% 91%  
63 9% 88%  
64 13% 79%  
65 7% 66%  
66 19% 59% Median
67 8% 40%  
68 9% 33% Last Result
69 10% 23%  
70 6% 13%  
71 3% 7%  
72 1.0% 4%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.5% 1.1%  
75 0.5% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 2% 99.4%  
59 1.3% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 9% 93%  
62 10% 84% Last Result
63 11% 74% Median
64 10% 62%  
65 11% 52%  
66 7% 41%  
67 12% 34%  
68 9% 22%  
69 3% 12%  
70 3% 9%  
71 3% 6%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.4% 1.4%  
74 0.5% 1.0%  
75 0.3% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.5% 99.9%  
54 0.6% 99.4%  
55 3% 98.9%  
56 2% 96%  
57 3% 94%  
58 16% 91%  
59 16% 75%  
60 7% 59% Last Result, Median
61 8% 52%  
62 15% 45%  
63 6% 30%  
64 10% 24%  
65 6% 13%  
66 3% 8%  
67 3% 5%  
68 1.0% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.7%  
70 0.3% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 0.2% 99.4%  
51 0.7% 99.2%  
52 1.3% 98.5%  
53 2% 97%  
54 4% 95%  
55 4% 91%  
56 6% 87%  
57 8% 80%  
58 7% 73% Median
59 23% 65%  
60 9% 42%  
61 10% 33% Last Result
62 3% 23%  
63 10% 20%  
64 2% 11%  
65 5% 8%  
66 3% 4%  
67 0.4% 0.8%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.1% 99.8%  
24 0.2% 99.8%  
25 0.2% 99.6%  
26 0.8% 99.4%  
27 3% 98.6%  
28 2% 95%  
29 6% 93%  
30 4% 87%  
31 12% 83%  
32 11% 71% Median
33 18% 60%  
34 7% 42%  
35 6% 35% Last Result
36 15% 29%  
37 3% 13%  
38 3% 10%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.3% 0.6%  
42 0.2% 0.2%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations