Opinion Poll by Norstat, 27 September–1 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.5% 24.7–28.4% 24.2–28.9% 23.7–29.4% 22.9–30.3%
Høyre 25.0% 25.6% 23.8–27.5% 23.4–28.0% 22.9–28.5% 22.1–29.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.3% 13.0–15.9% 12.6–16.4% 12.2–16.7% 11.6–17.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.6% 9.4–12.0% 9.1–12.4% 8.8–12.8% 8.3–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.0–9.4% 5.6–10.0%
Venstre 4.4% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.8% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.8–4.7%
Rødt 2.4% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.8–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 49 45–53 44–54 43–54 42–56
Høyre 45 47 43–50 42–52 41–53 40–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–29 23–30 22–31 21–32
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–23 17–23 16–23 15–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–17 10–18
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 0–9
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–7

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.1% 99.6%  
43 3% 98%  
44 5% 95%  
45 7% 90%  
46 11% 83%  
47 8% 72%  
48 13% 64%  
49 17% 52% Last Result, Median
50 10% 34%  
51 6% 24%  
52 8% 18%  
53 3% 11%  
54 6% 8%  
55 0.9% 2%  
56 0.5% 0.8%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.7% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.0%  
42 2% 97%  
43 9% 95%  
44 7% 86%  
45 19% 79% Last Result
46 7% 60%  
47 13% 53% Median
48 12% 40%  
49 7% 28%  
50 13% 22%  
51 3% 9%  
52 4% 6%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.4% 0.9%  
55 0.4% 0.5%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.7% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.0%  
23 5% 97%  
24 12% 92%  
25 19% 80%  
26 13% 61% Median
27 12% 48% Last Result
28 13% 36%  
29 16% 23%  
30 3% 7%  
31 3% 4%  
32 1.5% 2%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.6%  
16 3% 98.6%  
17 9% 96%  
18 16% 87%  
19 20% 71% Last Result
20 18% 51% Median
21 15% 33%  
22 7% 17%  
23 8% 10%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.4%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 6% 98% Last Result
12 13% 92%  
13 21% 79%  
14 25% 58% Median
15 20% 32%  
16 7% 12%  
17 4% 5%  
18 1.1% 1.5%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 29% 100%  
3 14% 71%  
4 0% 57%  
5 0% 57%  
6 0% 57%  
7 8% 57% Median
8 29% 49% Last Result
9 11% 20%  
10 7% 9%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 8% 99.9%  
2 9% 92%  
3 45% 83% Median
4 0% 38%  
5 0% 38%  
6 0% 38%  
7 8% 38%  
8 18% 30% Last Result
9 9% 13%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100%  
1 48% 98.9% Last Result
2 44% 51% Median
3 2% 8%  
4 0.2% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 2% 5%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.6% 0.6%  
10 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 69% 99.9% Last Result, Median
2 30% 31%  
3 0% 1.3%  
4 0% 1.3%  
5 0% 1.3%  
6 0% 1.3%  
7 0.9% 1.3%  
8 0.4% 0.4%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 103 100% 99–108 98–109 97–110 94–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 89 83% 84–94 83–95 82–96 80–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 85 59% 81–90 80–92 79–93 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 86 57% 81–89 79–91 78–91 76–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 83 43% 80–88 78–90 78–91 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 84 46% 79–88 78–89 76–90 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 84 41% 79–88 77–89 76–90 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 29% 77–87 76–88 75–89 74–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 8% 74–84 73–85 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 75 0.4% 70–80 69–81 68–82 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0% 69–78 68–79 66–81 64–82
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0% 69–78 68–78 67–80 64–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 64–73 63–74 62–75 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 62 0% 58–67 57–67 56–68 54–71
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 57 0% 52–63 51–64 51–66 49–68
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 30 0% 24–36 23–37 22–38 20–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.3% 99.8%  
95 0.3% 99.5%  
96 0.7% 99.1%  
97 1.4% 98%  
98 2% 97%  
99 5% 95%  
100 10% 90%  
101 12% 80%  
102 14% 68%  
103 5% 54% Median
104 10% 49%  
105 10% 38%  
106 6% 28%  
107 10% 23% Last Result
108 4% 13%  
109 5% 9%  
110 2% 4%  
111 1.1% 2%  
112 0.6% 0.7%  
113 0.1% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.2% 99.9%  
80 0.9% 99.7%  
81 0.9% 98.8%  
82 2% 98%  
83 5% 96%  
84 8% 90%  
85 4% 83% Majority
86 5% 79%  
87 10% 74%  
88 10% 63% Last Result, Median
89 14% 53%  
90 11% 39%  
91 9% 28%  
92 6% 19%  
93 3% 14%  
94 5% 11%  
95 3% 6%  
96 1.4% 3%  
97 0.8% 1.4%  
98 0.4% 0.7%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.8%  
77 0.4% 99.2%  
78 0.7% 98.8%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 96%  
81 5% 92%  
82 11% 87%  
83 8% 76%  
84 9% 68%  
85 10% 59% Median, Majority
86 5% 49%  
87 7% 44%  
88 12% 36%  
89 9% 24% Last Result
90 6% 15%  
91 4% 9%  
92 2% 5%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.6% 1.0%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 1.2% 99.4%  
78 2% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 3% 94%  
81 10% 91% Last Result
82 10% 82%  
83 9% 71%  
84 5% 62%  
85 5% 57% Majority
86 10% 52% Median
87 9% 43%  
88 14% 33%  
89 9% 19%  
90 4% 10%  
91 3% 6%  
92 0.8% 2%  
93 0.3% 2%  
94 0.7% 1.2%  
95 0.2% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.7%  
75 0.7% 99.5%  
76 0.3% 98.8%  
77 0.8% 98%  
78 3% 98%  
79 4% 94%  
80 9% 90%  
81 14% 81%  
82 9% 67%  
83 10% 57% Median
84 5% 48%  
85 5% 43% Majority
86 9% 38%  
87 10% 29%  
88 10% 18% Last Result
89 3% 9%  
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.2% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.8%  
76 2% 99.3%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 96%  
79 4% 93%  
80 11% 89% Last Result
81 11% 78%  
82 8% 68%  
83 5% 60%  
84 9% 55%  
85 5% 46% Median, Majority
86 12% 41%  
87 15% 29%  
88 7% 15%  
89 3% 8%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.3% 1.4%  
93 0.6% 1.1%  
94 0.2% 0.5%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.6% 99.7%  
76 2% 99.0%  
77 2% 97%  
78 4% 95%  
79 6% 91%  
80 9% 85% Last Result
81 12% 76%  
82 7% 64%  
83 5% 56%  
84 10% 51% Median
85 9% 41% Majority
86 8% 32%  
87 11% 24%  
88 5% 13%  
89 4% 8%  
90 2% 4%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.2%  
93 0.5% 0.8%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.9% 99.6%  
75 3% 98.6%  
76 2% 96%  
77 4% 94%  
78 7% 90%  
79 12% 82% Last Result
80 9% 71%  
81 8% 61%  
82 9% 53%  
83 6% 45% Median
84 10% 39%  
85 9% 29% Majority
86 9% 20%  
87 6% 11%  
88 2% 5%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.4% 1.4%  
91 0.4% 1.0%  
92 0.4% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.9% 99.7%  
71 0.5% 98.8%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 5% 94%  
75 4% 88%  
76 7% 84%  
77 9% 78%  
78 11% 69%  
79 14% 57%  
80 14% 44% Last Result, Median
81 6% 30%  
82 5% 24%  
83 5% 19%  
84 6% 14%  
85 5% 8% Majority
86 1.5% 3%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.6% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.4% 99.7%  
67 0.9% 99.3%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 6% 95%  
71 5% 89%  
72 12% 84%  
73 10% 72%  
74 10% 62% Median
75 10% 52%  
76 16% 42%  
77 4% 26% Last Result
78 5% 21%  
79 4% 16%  
80 6% 12%  
81 2% 6%  
82 3% 4%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.8% 99.4%  
66 1.2% 98.6%  
67 2% 97%  
68 4% 95%  
69 7% 91%  
70 11% 84%  
71 12% 74%  
72 10% 62% Median
73 11% 52%  
74 6% 41%  
75 15% 36%  
76 5% 21% Last Result
77 5% 16%  
78 5% 11%  
79 2% 6%  
80 2% 4%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.3% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.4% 99.4%  
66 1.2% 98.9%  
67 2% 98%  
68 5% 96%  
69 7% 91%  
70 8% 84%  
71 9% 76%  
72 10% 67% Last Result
73 11% 57% Median
74 10% 47%  
75 5% 37%  
76 12% 33%  
77 8% 21%  
78 8% 12%  
79 1.0% 5%  
80 2% 4%  
81 1.0% 1.5%  
82 0.4% 0.5%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.7%  
61 1.2% 99.3%  
62 3% 98%  
63 4% 95%  
64 5% 92%  
65 8% 86%  
66 11% 78%  
67 12% 67%  
68 12% 55% Last Result
69 9% 44% Median
70 7% 35%  
71 8% 28%  
72 8% 20%  
73 7% 12%  
74 1.2% 5%  
75 3% 4%  
76 0.5% 1.3%  
77 0.5% 0.8%  
78 0.2% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 1.4% 99.5%  
56 2% 98%  
57 5% 96%  
58 4% 91%  
59 9% 87%  
60 9% 78% Last Result
61 9% 69%  
62 11% 60%  
63 7% 49% Median
64 17% 42%  
65 8% 25%  
66 4% 17%  
67 8% 12%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 0.4% 1.2%  
71 0.5% 0.8%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.1% 99.7%  
49 0.5% 99.6%  
50 1.4% 99.1%  
51 3% 98%  
52 6% 95%  
53 7% 89%  
54 6% 82%  
55 16% 76%  
56 9% 60%  
57 6% 51% Median
58 8% 45%  
59 7% 37%  
60 5% 30%  
61 6% 24% Last Result
62 7% 18%  
63 4% 11%  
64 3% 7%  
65 1.1% 4%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.4% 1.0%  
68 0.5% 0.6%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.8% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.1%  
22 2% 98.8%  
23 6% 97%  
24 5% 91%  
25 5% 86%  
26 6% 82%  
27 2% 75%  
28 7% 73%  
29 5% 66%  
30 11% 61% Median
31 8% 49%  
32 8% 41%  
33 10% 33%  
34 5% 23%  
35 6% 18% Last Result
36 5% 12%  
37 4% 7%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.7% 2%  
40 0.7% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations