Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 3–4 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.6% 25.7–29.7% 25.2–30.3% 24.7–30.8% 23.9–31.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.8% 23.9–27.8% 23.4–28.3% 22.9–28.8% 22.1–29.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.4% 12.0–15.0% 11.6–15.5% 11.3–15.9% 10.6–16.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.4% 10.1–12.9% 9.8–13.4% 9.4–13.7% 8.9–14.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.5% 5.5–7.7% 5.2–8.0% 5.0–8.3% 4.6–8.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.4% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.7% 3.2–5.9% 2.8–6.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.9% 2.6–5.1% 2.3–5.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.6% 2.4–4.9% 2.1–5.3%
Rødt 2.4% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 46–54 44–55 44–55 42–58
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 43–50 42–51 42–53 40–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–27 21–28 20–29 19–30
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–24 17–24 17–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–14 10–15 9–15 8–16
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–10 2–11 1–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.6% 99.9%  
43 0.7% 99.2%  
44 4% 98.6%  
45 3% 94% Last Result
46 4% 91%  
47 8% 87%  
48 14% 79%  
49 11% 64%  
50 12% 53% Median
51 17% 41%  
52 8% 24%  
53 5% 16%  
54 6% 11%  
55 3% 5%  
56 1.0% 2%  
57 0.7% 1.3%  
58 0.4% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.8%  
41 1.0% 99.3%  
42 5% 98%  
43 8% 93%  
44 9% 86%  
45 13% 77%  
46 9% 64%  
47 17% 55% Median
48 12% 38%  
49 9% 27% Last Result
50 9% 18%  
51 5% 9%  
52 2% 4%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 1.2%  
55 0.2% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 0.9% 99.6%  
20 2% 98.6%  
21 3% 97%  
22 9% 93%  
23 13% 84%  
24 14% 71%  
25 24% 56% Median
26 17% 32%  
27 7% 16% Last Result
28 5% 9%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.7% 1.2%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 2% 99.7%  
17 4% 98%  
18 6% 94%  
19 10% 88% Last Result
20 17% 78%  
21 15% 61% Median
22 27% 46%  
23 7% 20%  
24 9% 13%  
25 2% 3%  
26 1.4% 2%  
27 0.3% 0.4%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 1.1% 99.9%  
9 3% 98.8%  
10 13% 96%  
11 24% 83% Last Result
12 27% 58% Median
13 17% 32%  
14 9% 14%  
15 4% 5%  
16 1.0% 1.4%  
17 0.3% 0.4%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.2% 100%  
2 1.4% 98.8%  
3 22% 97%  
4 0% 75%  
5 0% 75%  
6 0% 75%  
7 5% 75%  
8 27% 70% Last Result, Median
9 28% 43%  
10 11% 15%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 17% 100% Last Result
2 45% 83% Median
3 4% 38%  
4 1.4% 34%  
5 0% 33%  
6 0% 33%  
7 12% 33%  
8 16% 21%  
9 4% 5%  
10 0.8% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 5% 100%  
2 70% 95% Median
3 7% 25%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 0% 18%  
7 6% 18%  
8 9% 12% Last Result
9 3% 3%  
10 0.6% 0.7%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 87% 90% Last Result, Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 106 100% 101–110 100–111 98–112 96–114
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 91 93% 86–95 84–96 82–97 80–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 88 91% 85–93 83–95 81–96 78–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 84 43% 79–88 78–91 77–92 75–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 85 56% 80–90 78–91 77–92 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 36% 78–88 77–90 76–91 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 9% 75–84 74–86 73–88 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 81 6% 75–83 73–85 72–87 70–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 77 5% 73–82 72–84 71–86 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 80 8% 74–83 72–85 70–86 68–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 0.5% 70–79 68–81 67–81 64–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 74 0.2% 70–79 69–80 68–80 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 63–72 62–73 61–75 60–78
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 60 0% 55–65 54–66 53–69 50–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 54–62 54–64 52–65 51–67
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 32 0% 27–35 26–36 25–38 22–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.3% 99.6%  
97 0.9% 99.3%  
98 1.2% 98%  
99 1.4% 97%  
100 3% 96%  
101 6% 93%  
102 8% 87%  
103 4% 79%  
104 9% 75%  
105 13% 66%  
106 7% 53% Median
107 19% 46% Last Result
108 6% 27%  
109 8% 21%  
110 6% 13%  
111 2% 7%  
112 3% 5%  
113 1.3% 2%  
114 0.5% 0.7%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.8%  
81 1.1% 99.3%  
82 2% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 2% 95%  
85 2% 93% Majority
86 4% 91%  
87 8% 87%  
88 7% 79% Last Result
89 6% 72%  
90 7% 66% Median
91 9% 59%  
92 19% 50%  
93 9% 31%  
94 8% 22%  
95 4% 14%  
96 5% 9%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.9% 2%  
99 0.9% 2%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.2% 100%  
78 0.4% 99.7%  
79 0.9% 99.3%  
80 0.9% 98%  
81 0.7% 98%  
82 0.9% 97%  
83 2% 96%  
84 3% 94%  
85 6% 91% Majority
86 9% 85%  
87 24% 75% Median
88 9% 51%  
89 4% 42% Last Result
90 13% 38%  
91 6% 25%  
92 5% 19%  
93 4% 14%  
94 4% 10%  
95 3% 6%  
96 1.1% 3%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.8% 1.0%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.7% 99.5%  
77 2% 98.8%  
78 3% 96%  
79 4% 93%  
80 5% 89%  
81 5% 84% Last Result
82 5% 79%  
83 6% 75% Median
84 26% 69%  
85 7% 43% Majority
86 12% 36%  
87 8% 25%  
88 7% 17%  
89 2% 10%  
90 2% 8%  
91 2% 5%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.1% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.9%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.7%  
75 0.4% 99.5%  
76 1.1% 99.1%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 2% 95%  
80 2% 92%  
81 7% 90%  
82 8% 83%  
83 12% 75%  
84 7% 64%  
85 26% 56% Median, Majority
86 6% 31%  
87 5% 25%  
88 5% 21% Last Result
89 5% 16%  
90 4% 11%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.7% 1.2%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.6% 99.5%  
76 2% 98.9%  
77 4% 97%  
78 4% 93%  
79 5% 90%  
80 5% 84% Last Result
81 4% 79%  
82 5% 75% Median
83 25% 70%  
84 8% 45%  
85 11% 36% Majority
86 8% 26%  
87 6% 18%  
88 4% 12%  
89 2% 8%  
90 2% 5%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.2% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.0%  
94 0.3% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.8% 99.8%  
72 1.2% 99.0%  
73 1.1% 98%  
74 3% 97%  
75 4% 94%  
76 4% 90%  
77 5% 86%  
78 6% 81%  
79 13% 75%  
80 4% 62% Last Result
81 9% 58% Median
82 24% 49%  
83 9% 25%  
84 6% 15%  
85 3% 9% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 0.9% 4%  
88 0.7% 3%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.8% 99.9%  
71 1.0% 99.1%  
72 1.2% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 4% 94%  
75 5% 90%  
76 5% 86%  
77 5% 81%  
78 13% 76%  
79 5% 63% Last Result
80 7% 59% Median
81 26% 51%  
82 10% 25%  
83 6% 15%  
84 3% 9%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 1.1% 4%  
87 0.7% 3%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.7% 2%  
90 0.6% 0.9%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.2% 99.7%  
69 0.9% 99.4%  
70 0.9% 98.5%  
71 2% 98%  
72 5% 96%  
73 4% 91%  
74 9% 87%  
75 9% 78%  
76 19% 70%  
77 9% 51% Median
78 8% 42%  
79 6% 34%  
80 7% 28% Last Result
81 8% 21%  
82 4% 13%  
83 2% 9%  
84 2% 7%  
85 1.5% 5% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 1.1% 99.5%  
70 0.9% 98%  
71 2% 97%  
72 1.1% 95%  
73 4% 94%  
74 3% 90%  
75 7% 87%  
76 7% 80%  
77 7% 72% Last Result
78 5% 65% Median
79 9% 60%  
80 16% 51%  
81 15% 35%  
82 7% 20%  
83 4% 14%  
84 2% 10%  
85 5% 8% Majority
86 1.1% 3%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.0%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.5% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.5%  
65 0.5% 99.4%  
66 0.7% 98.9%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 3% 94%  
70 3% 91%  
71 5% 88%  
72 7% 83%  
73 14% 76%  
74 9% 62%  
75 6% 53%  
76 6% 47% Last Result, Median
77 8% 41%  
78 14% 34%  
79 11% 19%  
80 3% 8%  
81 3% 5%  
82 0.9% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.4%  
84 0.3% 0.8%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.7%  
66 0.3% 99.5%  
67 1.3% 99.2%  
68 2% 98%  
69 2% 96%  
70 8% 94%  
71 4% 86%  
72 11% 82% Last Result
73 10% 71%  
74 18% 61%  
75 12% 43% Median
76 8% 32%  
77 6% 24%  
78 6% 19%  
79 7% 12%  
80 3% 5%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.6% 1.4%  
83 0.5% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.2% 99.8%  
60 2% 99.6%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 96%  
63 5% 94%  
64 5% 88%  
65 14% 83%  
66 6% 69%  
67 5% 63%  
68 9% 58% Last Result, Median
69 18% 48%  
70 11% 31%  
71 9% 20%  
72 5% 11%  
73 2% 6%  
74 1.1% 4%  
75 0.4% 3%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.5% 1.3%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.1%  
52 0.9% 98.6%  
53 1.1% 98%  
54 3% 97%  
55 8% 94%  
56 4% 86%  
57 9% 82%  
58 9% 72%  
59 8% 64%  
60 12% 56% Median
61 6% 44% Last Result
62 15% 38%  
63 5% 23%  
64 4% 18%  
65 6% 14%  
66 3% 8%  
67 0.9% 5%  
68 1.0% 4%  
69 2% 3%  
70 1.0% 1.3%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.7% 99.7%  
52 2% 99.1%  
53 2% 97%  
54 6% 95%  
55 4% 90%  
56 7% 85%  
57 12% 78%  
58 10% 66%  
59 22% 56% Median
60 10% 34% Last Result
61 7% 24%  
62 9% 17%  
63 3% 8%  
64 3% 5%  
65 0.8% 3%  
66 1.2% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.3% 99.8%  
23 0.8% 99.4%  
24 0.9% 98.7%  
25 2% 98%  
26 5% 96%  
27 7% 91%  
28 5% 84%  
29 6% 79%  
30 11% 74%  
31 9% 63% Median
32 14% 54%  
33 15% 40%  
34 8% 25%  
35 8% 17% Last Result
36 4% 8%  
37 2% 5%  
38 1.0% 3%  
39 0.3% 2%  
40 0.8% 1.2%  
41 0.3% 0.5%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations