Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 2–6 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 29.1% 27.3–31.0% 26.8–31.6% 26.4–32.1% 25.5–33.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.3% 23.6–27.2% 23.1–27.7% 22.7–28.2% 21.9–29.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.1% 11.8–14.6% 11.5–15.0% 11.1–15.4% 10.5–16.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–11.0% 7.7–11.3% 7.2–12.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.6%
Venstre 4.4% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–6.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.8% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 53 49–57 47–58 46–58 45–61
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 43–50 42–51 41–52 40–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 21–27 20–28 20–28 18–30
Senterpartiet 19 17 15–20 14–20 14–20 13–22
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 10–14 9–14 9–15 8–16
Venstre 8 9 7–11 2–11 2–12 2–13
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–3 1–7 0–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.3% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.7% Last Result
46 2% 99.3%  
47 2% 97%  
48 3% 95%  
49 5% 92%  
50 6% 87%  
51 11% 81%  
52 19% 70%  
53 11% 52% Median
54 18% 41%  
55 4% 22%  
56 8% 18%  
57 5% 10%  
58 3% 5%  
59 1.2% 2%  
60 0.7% 1.3%  
61 0.4% 0.6%  
62 0.1% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.3% 100%  
40 0.7% 99.7%  
41 4% 98.9%  
42 5% 95%  
43 5% 91%  
44 14% 85%  
45 13% 72%  
46 19% 59% Median
47 10% 40%  
48 7% 30%  
49 12% 23% Last Result
50 5% 12%  
51 4% 7%  
52 2% 3%  
53 0.6% 1.0%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.9%  
19 1.4% 99.4%  
20 7% 98%  
21 9% 91%  
22 19% 82%  
23 13% 63% Median
24 12% 50%  
25 12% 38%  
26 10% 26%  
27 8% 16% Last Result
28 6% 8%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.6%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.7%  
14 5% 98%  
15 10% 92%  
16 24% 83%  
17 18% 58% Median
18 21% 40%  
19 9% 20% Last Result
20 9% 11%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.5%  
23 0.1% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0.1% 100%  
8 0.8% 99.9%  
9 8% 99.0%  
10 9% 91%  
11 33% 82% Last Result, Median
12 19% 48%  
13 18% 29%  
14 8% 11%  
15 2% 3%  
16 1.1% 1.1%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 8% 100%  
3 0.2% 92%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0.3% 92%  
7 4% 91%  
8 27% 87% Last Result
9 27% 60% Median
10 22% 33%  
11 8% 11%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100% Last Result
2 52% 88% Median
3 0% 36%  
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 0% 36%  
7 18% 36%  
8 13% 18%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 31% 99.9% Last Result
2 43% 69% Median
3 8% 26%  
4 0% 18%  
5 0% 18%  
6 0% 18%  
7 9% 18%  
8 8% 9%  
9 1.0% 1.3%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 36% 97%  
2 13% 62% Median
3 41% 49%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0.4% 8%  
7 3% 8%  
8 4% 5% Last Result
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 104 100% 99–109 98–111 96–111 94–113
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 90 96% 86–95 85–96 84–97 81–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 87 82% 83–92 81–93 79–95 78–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 85 53% 80–90 79–91 78–92 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 82 18% 77–86 76–88 74–90 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 80 11% 75–85 74–86 74–87 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 79 4% 74–83 73–84 72–85 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 78 2% 73–82 71–83 71–84 69–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 76 0.6% 72–81 71–83 70–84 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.3% 70–80 69–80 68–81 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 68 0% 64–73 62–74 62–75 61–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 65 0% 61–70 61–72 60–72 58–75
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 64 0% 59–68 57–70 55–71 54–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 59–68 58–69 57–69 56–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 54–62 53–63 52–64 50–66
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 28 0% 24–31 23–32 22–34 19–36

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 2% 99.5%  
96 0.7% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 2% 95%  
99 4% 94%  
100 4% 89%  
101 4% 85%  
102 5% 81%  
103 15% 75%  
104 13% 61% Median
105 9% 48%  
106 8% 39%  
107 7% 31% Last Result
108 6% 23%  
109 9% 17%  
110 2% 8%  
111 3% 6%  
112 0.7% 2%  
113 1.3% 2%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.5% 99.7%  
82 0.5% 99.2%  
83 1.2% 98.7%  
84 2% 98%  
85 3% 96% Majority
86 5% 93%  
87 9% 89%  
88 9% 80%  
89 18% 71% Last Result, Median
90 8% 52%  
91 10% 44%  
92 11% 34%  
93 7% 24%  
94 4% 17%  
95 5% 13%  
96 4% 8%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.4% 2%  
99 0.7% 0.9%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.5%  
79 2% 99.2%  
80 2% 97%  
81 1.3% 95%  
82 2% 94%  
83 6% 92%  
84 4% 86%  
85 9% 82% Majority
86 10% 74%  
87 17% 64% Median
88 12% 47% Last Result
89 7% 35%  
90 8% 28%  
91 8% 20%  
92 3% 13%  
93 6% 10%  
94 1.1% 4%  
95 1.3% 3%  
96 1.4% 2%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.7% 99.5%  
77 0.8% 98.7%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 3% 92% Last Result
81 4% 89%  
82 8% 86%  
83 8% 77%  
84 17% 69%  
85 8% 53% Median, Majority
86 9% 44%  
87 14% 36%  
88 6% 22%  
89 5% 16%  
90 4% 10%  
91 2% 6%  
92 3% 5%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 1.4% 99.6%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 1.1% 97%  
76 6% 96%  
77 3% 90%  
78 8% 87% Median
79 8% 80%  
80 7% 72%  
81 12% 65% Last Result
82 17% 53%  
83 10% 36%  
84 9% 26%  
85 4% 18% Majority
86 6% 14%  
87 2% 8%  
88 1.3% 6%  
89 2% 5%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.3% 0.5%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 0.8% 99.5%  
73 1.2% 98.7%  
74 3% 98%  
75 6% 94%  
76 4% 88%  
77 4% 84%  
78 14% 80% Median
79 10% 66%  
80 13% 56%  
81 9% 43%  
82 7% 34%  
83 10% 27%  
84 6% 17%  
85 5% 11% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.8% 2% Last Result
89 0.3% 1.1%  
90 0.4% 0.8%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.7% 99.7%  
71 1.4% 99.1%  
72 2% 98%  
73 4% 96%  
74 5% 92%  
75 4% 87%  
76 7% 83% Median
77 11% 76%  
78 10% 66%  
79 8% 56%  
80 18% 48% Last Result
81 9% 29%  
82 9% 20%  
83 5% 11%  
84 3% 7%  
85 1.5% 4% Majority
86 1.2% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.3%  
88 0.5% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.6% 99.7%  
70 0.9% 99.1%  
71 3% 98%  
72 4% 95%  
73 3% 90%  
74 6% 88%  
75 13% 82%  
76 10% 69% Median
77 7% 59%  
78 9% 52%  
79 11% 43%  
80 9% 31% Last Result
81 6% 23%  
82 8% 16%  
83 4% 8%  
84 2% 5%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.7% 2%  
87 0.4% 0.9%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 0.5% 99.2%  
70 3% 98.6%  
71 2% 96%  
72 5% 93% Last Result
73 8% 89%  
74 14% 81%  
75 8% 66%  
76 10% 58% Median
77 9% 48%  
78 10% 38%  
79 8% 28%  
80 4% 20%  
81 8% 16%  
82 3% 8%  
83 2% 5%  
84 3% 3%  
85 0.3% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.5% 99.8%  
67 0.7% 99.3%  
68 1.2% 98.6%  
69 3% 97%  
70 5% 94%  
71 8% 89%  
72 6% 81%  
73 12% 75%  
74 10% 63% Median
75 12% 53%  
76 8% 41%  
77 5% 32%  
78 10% 27%  
79 7% 17% Last Result
80 6% 10%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.3% 2%  
83 0.2% 1.1%  
84 0.6% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 1.1% 99.6%  
62 4% 98.5%  
63 3% 95%  
64 5% 91%  
65 5% 87%  
66 8% 82%  
67 16% 74% Median
68 13% 58%  
69 8% 45%  
70 11% 37%  
71 6% 26%  
72 6% 20%  
73 6% 14%  
74 5% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 0.5% 2%  
77 0.6% 2% Last Result
78 0.4% 1.0%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.2% 99.8%  
58 0.4% 99.7%  
59 1.4% 99.3%  
60 2% 98%  
61 6% 95%  
62 7% 90%  
63 9% 82%  
64 6% 73%  
65 18% 67% Median
66 13% 49%  
67 8% 36%  
68 11% 28%  
69 4% 17%  
70 5% 14%  
71 2% 8%  
72 4% 6%  
73 1.2% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.1%  
75 0.3% 0.7%  
76 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 2% 99.4%  
56 0.9% 97%  
57 2% 97%  
58 2% 95%  
59 4% 93%  
60 7% 88%  
61 8% 82% Last Result
62 7% 74%  
63 14% 67%  
64 6% 53% Median
65 19% 46%  
66 8% 28%  
67 7% 20%  
68 4% 13%  
69 3% 9%  
70 3% 6%  
71 0.8% 3%  
72 1.0% 2%  
73 0.5% 0.9%  
74 0.3% 0.4%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.2%  
58 4% 97%  
59 6% 93%  
60 6% 87%  
61 10% 81%  
62 16% 71%  
63 9% 55% Median
64 11% 46%  
65 14% 35%  
66 8% 21%  
67 2% 13%  
68 2% 11% Last Result
69 7% 8%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.3% 1.0%  
72 0.4% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.2% 100%  
50 0.5% 99.8%  
51 1.0% 99.3%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 97%  
54 5% 92%  
55 9% 87%  
56 14% 78%  
57 16% 65% Median
58 10% 48%  
59 7% 38%  
60 10% 31% Last Result
61 7% 21%  
62 8% 14%  
63 2% 5%  
64 2% 3%  
65 1.1% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 0.4% 99.6%  
20 0.6% 99.2%  
21 0.8% 98.6%  
22 2% 98%  
23 2% 96%  
24 5% 94%  
25 7% 89%  
26 8% 83%  
27 10% 74%  
28 18% 65% Median
29 19% 47%  
30 11% 28%  
31 10% 17%  
32 3% 7%  
33 1.3% 4%  
34 2% 3%  
35 0.5% 1.2% Last Result
36 0.3% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.3%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations