Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 3–9 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.8% 24.8–28.9% 24.2–29.5% 23.7–30.0% 22.8–31.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.8% 23.9–28.0% 23.3–28.5% 22.9–29.1% 22.0–30.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.9% 13.3–16.6% 12.9–17.1% 12.5–17.6% 11.8–18.5%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.6% 9.3–12.1% 8.9–12.6% 8.6–13.0% 8.0–13.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.0% 5.0–7.3% 4.8–7.6% 4.5–7.9% 4.1–8.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.8% 4.0–6.0% 3.7–6.3% 3.5–6.6% 3.2–7.2%
Venstre 4.4% 4.0% 3.3–5.1% 3.0–5.4% 2.9–5.7% 2.5–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.0% 3.3–5.1% 3.0–5.4% 2.9–5.7% 2.5–6.2%
Rødt 2.4% 2.2% 1.7–3.1% 1.5–3.3% 1.4–3.5% 1.2–4.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 47 43–51 42–52 42–53 40–55
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 42–50 42–51 41–53 40–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–29 23–30 21–31 20–33
Senterpartiet 19 19 16–22 16–22 15–22 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 9–13 8–13 8–14 7–15
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 2–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Rødt 1 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.2% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.8%  
40 1.0% 99.6%  
41 1.1% 98.7%  
42 3% 98%  
43 7% 94%  
44 13% 87%  
45 9% 74% Last Result
46 11% 65%  
47 7% 54% Median
48 19% 47%  
49 9% 28%  
50 4% 19%  
51 6% 15%  
52 5% 9%  
53 2% 4%  
54 0.8% 2%  
55 0.5% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.3%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.6% 99.5%  
41 3% 98.9%  
42 8% 96%  
43 15% 88%  
44 10% 72%  
45 12% 62%  
46 12% 51% Median
47 11% 39%  
48 6% 28%  
49 4% 21% Last Result
50 9% 17%  
51 3% 8%  
52 1.4% 5%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.6% 1.0%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 1.1% 99.7%  
21 1.2% 98.6%  
22 2% 97%  
23 3% 96%  
24 3% 93%  
25 10% 90%  
26 30% 80% Median
27 20% 50% Last Result
28 19% 30%  
29 4% 11%  
30 4% 7%  
31 0.8% 3%  
32 0.7% 2%  
33 1.0% 2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.3% 99.9%  
14 0.9% 99.7%  
15 2% 98.8%  
16 8% 97%  
17 22% 89%  
18 16% 67%  
19 12% 51% Last Result, Median
20 18% 39%  
21 10% 22%  
22 9% 11%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.3% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.3%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.3% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0% 99.6%  
7 0.8% 99.6%  
8 7% 98.8%  
9 12% 92%  
10 33% 80% Median
11 19% 46% Last Result
12 14% 27%  
13 10% 14%  
14 3% 4%  
15 0.7% 0.9%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100% Last Result
2 10% 99.5%  
3 3% 89%  
4 0.3% 86%  
5 0% 86%  
6 0% 86%  
7 8% 86%  
8 29% 78% Median
9 32% 49%  
10 10% 18%  
11 6% 8%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 35% 99.7%  
3 2% 65%  
4 0% 62%  
5 0% 62%  
6 0% 62%  
7 23% 62% Median
8 27% 39% Last Result
9 8% 12%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 7% 99.9%  
2 6% 93%  
3 34% 87%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0% 53%  
7 17% 53% Median
8 21% 36% Last Result
9 12% 15%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 1.0%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 88% 98% Last Result, Median
2 9% 9%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0% 0.4%  
5 0% 0.4%  
6 0% 0.4%  
7 0.4% 0.4%  
8 0% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 104 100% 99–108 97–109 96–111 94–113
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 89 92 98.7% 88–98 86–99 85–99 84–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 89 92% 85–93 82–95 81–96 79–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 84 45% 79–90 79–91 77–92 73–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 85 55% 79–90 78–90 77–92 75–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 82 38% 78–89 78–90 76–91 72–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 7% 75–83 73–85 72–87 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 78 3% 73–83 72–84 71–85 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 77 1.3% 71–81 70–83 70–84 69–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 0.3% 70–80 69–81 69–82 68–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 74 0.2% 69–78 69–80 67–80 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 66–75 65–76 63–77 61–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 60–70 59–71 59–73 57–74
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 58 0% 51–64 51–65 50–66 49–68
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 52–61 52–62 51–63 49–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 25–34 24–36 22–36 20–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.1% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.6% 99.7%  
95 1.1% 99.0%  
96 0.8% 98%  
97 2% 97%  
98 3% 95%  
99 11% 91%  
100 5% 81%  
101 3% 76%  
102 14% 73%  
103 7% 59%  
104 6% 51%  
105 13% 46%  
106 7% 33% Median
107 14% 26% Last Result
108 5% 12%  
109 2% 6%  
110 2% 4%  
111 1.0% 3%  
112 1.0% 2%  
113 0.4% 0.7%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.9%  
83 0.2% 99.8%  
84 0.9% 99.6%  
85 1.5% 98.7% Majority
86 2% 97%  
87 4% 95%  
88 10% 91%  
89 12% 80% Last Result
90 9% 69%  
91 5% 60%  
92 6% 55%  
93 6% 49%  
94 7% 44%  
95 7% 37% Median
96 4% 30%  
97 5% 26%  
98 14% 21%  
99 5% 6%  
100 1.4% 2%  
101 0.3% 0.4%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.8%  
79 0.4% 99.8%  
80 2% 99.4%  
81 0.9% 98%  
82 2% 97%  
83 2% 95%  
84 2% 93%  
85 7% 92% Majority
86 19% 85%  
87 6% 65%  
88 7% 60% Last Result
89 8% 52%  
90 10% 44% Median
91 10% 33%  
92 11% 23%  
93 4% 12%  
94 3% 8%  
95 2% 5%  
96 0.7% 3%  
97 1.2% 2%  
98 0.5% 1.1%  
99 0.2% 0.6%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 1.0% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 98.9%  
75 0.2% 98.7%  
76 0.8% 98.6%  
77 0.6% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 13% 95%  
80 6% 82%  
81 5% 76% Last Result
82 9% 71%  
83 12% 62%  
84 6% 50% Median
85 6% 45% Majority
86 4% 39%  
87 5% 34%  
88 6% 30%  
89 8% 24%  
90 9% 15%  
91 3% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.5% 0.9%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 0.9% 99.1%  
77 2% 98%  
78 3% 96%  
79 9% 94%  
80 8% 85%  
81 6% 76%  
82 5% 70%  
83 4% 66%  
84 6% 61%  
85 6% 55% Majority
86 12% 50%  
87 9% 38% Median
88 5% 29% Last Result
89 6% 24%  
90 13% 18%  
91 2% 5%  
92 0.6% 3%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.2% 1.4%  
95 0.2% 1.3%  
96 1.0% 1.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 1.0% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 98.9%  
74 0.4% 98.7%  
75 0.7% 98%  
76 0.7% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 14% 95%  
79 6% 82%  
80 5% 76% Last Result
81 10% 70%  
82 11% 60%  
83 6% 50% Median
84 6% 44%  
85 4% 38% Majority
86 4% 34%  
87 6% 29%  
88 8% 23%  
89 9% 15%  
90 2% 6%  
91 2% 4%  
92 0.9% 2%  
93 0.5% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.6%  
70 0.6% 99.4%  
71 1.0% 98.8%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 4% 91%  
76 11% 87%  
77 11% 76%  
78 9% 65%  
79 9% 56%  
80 8% 47% Last Result, Median
81 6% 39%  
82 18% 33%  
83 7% 15%  
84 1.3% 8%  
85 2% 7% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 0.7% 3%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.6%  
70 0.7% 99.2%  
71 3% 98%  
72 5% 96%  
73 1.3% 91%  
74 4% 90%  
75 7% 85%  
76 15% 78%  
77 9% 64% Last Result
78 11% 55%  
79 11% 44%  
80 5% 33% Median
81 7% 28%  
82 10% 20%  
83 5% 11%  
84 3% 6%  
85 1.1% 3% Majority
86 0.4% 2%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.4% 1.0%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 1.4% 99.6%  
70 5% 98%  
71 14% 94%  
72 5% 79%  
73 4% 74%  
74 7% 70%  
75 7% 63%  
76 6% 56% Median
77 6% 51%  
78 5% 45%  
79 9% 40%  
80 12% 31% Last Result
81 10% 20%  
82 4% 9%  
83 2% 5%  
84 1.5% 3%  
85 0.9% 1.3% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 2% 99.6%  
69 5% 98%  
70 14% 93%  
71 6% 79%  
72 5% 73%  
73 7% 68%  
74 5% 61%  
75 5% 56% Median
76 7% 50%  
77 4% 44%  
78 8% 40%  
79 12% 31% Last Result
80 10% 19%  
81 4% 9%  
82 2% 5%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0.6% 0.9%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.2% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.7%  
65 0.7% 99.6%  
66 0.7% 98.9%  
67 2% 98%  
68 1.4% 97%  
69 5% 95%  
70 11% 90%  
71 8% 79%  
72 9% 71% Last Result
73 6% 62% Median
74 26% 56%  
75 4% 30%  
76 7% 26%  
77 4% 19%  
78 6% 14%  
79 2% 8%  
80 4% 6%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.0%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.2% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.2%  
63 2% 98.7%  
64 2% 97%  
65 1.4% 95%  
66 9% 94%  
67 4% 85%  
68 16% 81%  
69 11% 65%  
70 10% 53%  
71 10% 43%  
72 3% 33% Median
73 15% 30%  
74 4% 15%  
75 3% 11%  
76 5% 8% Last Result
77 1.0% 3%  
78 0.7% 2%  
79 0.7% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.4% 99.9%  
58 1.3% 99.5%  
59 5% 98%  
60 13% 94%  
61 5% 81%  
62 8% 76%  
63 7% 67%  
64 11% 60%  
65 8% 49% Median
66 7% 41%  
67 11% 35%  
68 6% 23% Last Result
69 3% 17%  
70 8% 14%  
71 2% 6%  
72 1.2% 4%  
73 3% 3%  
74 0.2% 0.5%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.8%  
48 0.2% 99.8%  
49 1.0% 99.5%  
50 1.1% 98.6%  
51 9% 97%  
52 3% 89%  
53 2% 86%  
54 12% 84%  
55 4% 73%  
56 5% 68%  
57 5% 63%  
58 9% 58%  
59 11% 49%  
60 6% 38%  
61 6% 32% Last Result, Median
62 2% 26%  
63 8% 23%  
64 11% 16%  
65 2% 5%  
66 1.4% 3%  
67 0.3% 2%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.3% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.9% 99.6%  
50 0.7% 98.7%  
51 2% 98%  
52 6% 96%  
53 14% 90%  
54 7% 76%  
55 12% 68%  
56 9% 57% Median
57 10% 48%  
58 8% 38%  
59 4% 30%  
60 14% 25% Last Result
61 3% 12%  
62 5% 8%  
63 2% 4%  
64 1.5% 2%  
65 0.3% 0.7%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.2% 99.9%  
20 0.5% 99.7%  
21 1.3% 99.2%  
22 2% 98%  
23 0.9% 96%  
24 2% 95%  
25 12% 93%  
26 4% 81%  
27 3% 76%  
28 7% 73%  
29 7% 66%  
30 8% 59%  
31 11% 51%  
32 8% 40%  
33 14% 32% Median
34 10% 19%  
35 4% 9% Last Result
36 3% 5%  
37 1.4% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.6%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations