Opinion Poll by Sentio, 10–16 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.2% 23.3–27.2% 22.7–27.8% 22.3–28.3% 21.4–29.3%
Høyre 25.0% 25.2% 23.3–27.2% 22.7–27.8% 22.3–28.3% 21.4–29.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.6% 13.1–16.4% 12.7–16.8% 12.4–17.3% 11.7–18.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.1% 8.9–11.6% 8.5–12.1% 8.2–12.4% 7.7–13.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.2–8.6% 5.9–8.9% 5.7–9.3% 5.2–10.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 4.9% 4.0–6.0% 3.8–6.3% 3.6–6.6% 3.2–7.2%
Venstre 4.4% 4.6% 3.8–5.7% 3.6–6.1% 3.4–6.3% 3.0–6.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 1.9–5.2%
Rødt 2.4% 3.1% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.6% 1.8–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–49 41–50 41–51 39–54
Høyre 45 45 41–49 40–50 39–51 38–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–30 23–30 22–31 20–33
Senterpartiet 19 18 15–21 15–22 15–22 14–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–17 9–18
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 8 2–11 2–11 2–12 2–13
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–7 1–8 0–8 0–9
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.6% 99.9%  
40 2% 99.3%  
41 4% 98%  
42 5% 94%  
43 16% 88%  
44 10% 72%  
45 19% 62% Median
46 9% 43%  
47 18% 34%  
48 4% 15%  
49 4% 11% Last Result
50 4% 8%  
51 2% 4%  
52 0.7% 2%  
53 0.5% 1.2%  
54 0.4% 0.8%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.3% 99.7%  
39 1.2% 98%  
40 3% 97%  
41 7% 94%  
42 9% 88%  
43 8% 79%  
44 8% 71%  
45 13% 63% Last Result, Median
46 16% 49%  
47 7% 33%  
48 13% 27%  
49 6% 13%  
50 3% 7%  
51 2% 4%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.3% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.3%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.8%  
21 1.0% 99.3%  
22 2% 98%  
23 4% 96%  
24 8% 92%  
25 24% 83%  
26 11% 59% Median
27 18% 48% Last Result
28 11% 31%  
29 9% 20%  
30 6% 10%  
31 2% 4%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.7%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.4% 99.9%  
14 2% 99.5%  
15 10% 98%  
16 12% 88%  
17 8% 77%  
18 29% 68% Median
19 21% 39% Last Result
20 8% 18%  
21 5% 10%  
22 4% 6%  
23 1.0% 1.4%  
24 0.2% 0.4%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 1.0% 99.8%  
10 4% 98.8%  
11 13% 95% Last Result
12 21% 81%  
13 24% 61% Median
14 15% 37%  
15 14% 22%  
16 6% 8%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.6% 0.8%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100% Last Result
2 11% 99.7%  
3 5% 89%  
4 0% 84%  
5 0% 84%  
6 0% 84%  
7 5% 84%  
8 29% 78% Median
9 21% 50%  
10 17% 29%  
11 8% 12%  
12 3% 4%  
13 0.9% 1.0%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 14% 100%  
3 3% 86%  
4 0% 83%  
5 0% 83%  
6 0.4% 83%  
7 6% 83%  
8 32% 77% Last Result, Median
9 23% 45%  
10 17% 23%  
11 4% 6%  
12 1.1% 1.5%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 25% 96%  
2 10% 71%  
3 44% 61% Median
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0.2% 17%  
7 11% 17%  
8 5% 6% Last Result
9 1.0% 1.2%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 37% 100% Last Result
2 54% 63% Median
3 0% 9%  
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0.2% 9%  
7 5% 9%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.7% 0.9%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 100 100% 95–106 94–107 93–108 90–109
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 91 94% 86–95 84–96 82–97 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 87 78% 82–93 80–94 80–95 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 86 71% 81–92 80–93 79–94 78–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 84 48% 79–90 78–92 77–93 76–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 83 29% 77–88 76–89 75–90 72–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 78 6% 74–83 73–85 72–87 71–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 12% 74–85 73–86 72–87 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 2% 72–82 71–83 71–84 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 75 0.4% 68–79 68–80 67–82 65–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0% 67–76 66–78 65–78 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 66 0% 62–70 61–72 60–74 59–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 60–67 59–69 58–70 57–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 55–63 54–64 53–65 51–67
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 57 0% 50–61 49–62 47–63 46–64
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 29 0% 24–33 22–35 21–35 19–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
87 0% 100%  
88 0.2% 99.9%  
89 0.1% 99.8%  
90 0.5% 99.6%  
91 0.3% 99.1%  
92 1.1% 98.8%  
93 2% 98%  
94 2% 96%  
95 5% 94%  
96 6% 89%  
97 6% 83%  
98 8% 78%  
99 11% 69%  
100 9% 58% Median
101 11% 49%  
102 9% 39%  
103 6% 30%  
104 5% 24%  
105 7% 18%  
106 2% 11%  
107 5% 9% Last Result
108 3% 4%  
109 1.5% 2%  
110 0.1% 0.3%  
111 0.1% 0.2%  
112 0% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.8%  
81 0.6% 99.2%  
82 1.2% 98.7%  
83 1.3% 97%  
84 2% 96%  
85 4% 94% Majority
86 6% 90%  
87 7% 84%  
88 5% 78%  
89 10% 73% Last Result
90 5% 63% Median
91 17% 57%  
92 11% 40%  
93 10% 29%  
94 6% 19%  
95 7% 14%  
96 4% 7%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.5% 1.0%  
99 0.2% 0.5%  
100 0.2% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.9% 99.6%  
80 4% 98.7%  
81 3% 95%  
82 5% 92%  
83 4% 86%  
84 4% 82%  
85 4% 78% Majority
86 13% 74%  
87 12% 61% Median
88 14% 50% Last Result
89 7% 36%  
90 7% 29%  
91 5% 22%  
92 6% 17%  
93 3% 11%  
94 4% 8%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.4% 1.0%  
98 0.4% 0.6%  
99 0% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.7%  
79 3% 99.3%  
80 1.5% 96%  
81 6% 94% Last Result
82 9% 89%  
83 4% 79%  
84 4% 75%  
85 12% 71% Majority
86 12% 59% Median
87 8% 47%  
88 8% 40%  
89 8% 32%  
90 8% 25%  
91 4% 17%  
92 4% 13%  
93 4% 9%  
94 3% 5%  
95 0.7% 2%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.7%  
98 0.2% 0.4%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.6% 99.7%  
77 4% 99.0%  
78 2% 95%  
79 5% 94%  
80 9% 89% Last Result
81 6% 80%  
82 6% 74%  
83 12% 68%  
84 9% 56% Median
85 9% 48% Majority
86 9% 38%  
87 6% 29%  
88 4% 23%  
89 7% 19%  
90 2% 12%  
91 4% 10%  
92 3% 6%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.7% 1.1%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.3% 99.6%  
73 0.9% 99.3%  
74 0.7% 98%  
75 3% 98%  
76 4% 95%  
77 4% 91%  
78 4% 87%  
79 8% 83%  
80 8% 75%  
81 8% 68%  
82 8% 60% Median
83 12% 53%  
84 12% 41%  
85 4% 29% Majority
86 4% 25%  
87 9% 21%  
88 6% 11% Last Result
89 1.5% 6%  
90 3% 4%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.5%  
72 2% 99.0%  
73 4% 97%  
74 7% 93%  
75 6% 86%  
76 10% 81%  
77 11% 71%  
78 17% 60% Median
79 5% 43%  
80 10% 37% Last Result
81 5% 27%  
82 7% 22%  
83 6% 16%  
84 4% 10%  
85 2% 6% Majority
86 1.3% 4%  
87 1.2% 3%  
88 0.6% 1.3%  
89 0.5% 0.7%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 0.8% 99.4%  
71 0.7% 98.6%  
72 2% 98%  
73 2% 96%  
74 5% 94%  
75 6% 89%  
76 6% 83%  
77 6% 76%  
78 7% 70%  
79 11% 63% Median
80 17% 52% Last Result
81 12% 36%  
82 3% 24%  
83 5% 20%  
84 4% 16%  
85 5% 12% Majority
86 3% 8%  
87 3% 4%  
88 0.8% 1.2%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.3%  
70 1.2% 98.8%  
71 3% 98%  
72 7% 94%  
73 5% 87%  
74 13% 82%  
75 12% 69%  
76 16% 57% Median
77 8% 41%  
78 8% 33%  
79 6% 26% Last Result
80 4% 20%  
81 5% 16%  
82 6% 11%  
83 1.4% 5%  
84 2% 4%  
85 1.1% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.7%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.3% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.5%  
66 0.5% 99.3%  
67 2% 98.8%  
68 8% 97%  
69 3% 89%  
70 3% 86%  
71 4% 83%  
72 8% 80%  
73 8% 71%  
74 9% 63% Median
75 15% 54%  
76 10% 39%  
77 7% 29% Last Result
78 9% 22%  
79 4% 12%  
80 4% 9%  
81 1.4% 5%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.8% 2%  
84 0.4% 0.8%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.7%  
64 1.0% 99.3%  
65 1.3% 98%  
66 3% 97%  
67 7% 94%  
68 4% 87%  
69 5% 83%  
70 15% 78%  
71 16% 64% Median
72 9% 48% Last Result
73 13% 39%  
74 5% 26%  
75 9% 22%  
76 5% 13%  
77 1.2% 8%  
78 5% 7%  
79 1.0% 2%  
80 0.8% 1.3%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 1.2% 99.7%  
60 1.0% 98%  
61 4% 97%  
62 4% 93%  
63 4% 90%  
64 9% 86%  
65 17% 77%  
66 18% 60% Median
67 5% 41%  
68 14% 36%  
69 7% 22%  
70 6% 15%  
71 3% 9%  
72 1.4% 6%  
73 2% 5%  
74 1.0% 3%  
75 0.5% 2%  
76 0.2% 1.4% Last Result
77 1.1% 1.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 1.0% 99.6%  
58 2% 98.6%  
59 6% 96%  
60 6% 90%  
61 13% 85%  
62 13% 72%  
63 19% 59% Median
64 6% 40%  
65 12% 34%  
66 7% 22%  
67 6% 15%  
68 2% 9% Last Result
69 2% 7%  
70 3% 5%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.5% 1.1%  
73 0.2% 0.6%  
74 0.2% 0.4%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.2% 99.9%  
51 0.6% 99.8%  
52 0.9% 99.2%  
53 3% 98%  
54 5% 95%  
55 7% 90%  
56 15% 84%  
57 14% 68%  
58 7% 55% Median
59 12% 48%  
60 12% 36% Last Result
61 7% 24%  
62 6% 17%  
63 4% 11%  
64 3% 7%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.7% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.8%  
46 0.3% 99.6%  
47 2% 99.3%  
48 2% 97%  
49 2% 95%  
50 5% 93%  
51 8% 88%  
52 5% 81%  
53 5% 76%  
54 8% 71%  
55 8% 63%  
56 5% 55% Median
57 7% 50%  
58 7% 44%  
59 14% 37%  
60 6% 23%  
61 10% 17% Last Result
62 2% 7%  
63 4% 5%  
64 0.8% 1.1%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.6%  
20 0.5% 98.9%  
21 2% 98%  
22 2% 96%  
23 1.5% 95%  
24 4% 93%  
25 4% 89%  
26 9% 85%  
27 9% 76%  
28 9% 67%  
29 18% 58% Median
30 7% 40%  
31 12% 32%  
32 7% 20%  
33 4% 13%  
34 4% 9%  
35 3% 5% Last Result
36 1.4% 2%  
37 0.3% 0.9%  
38 0.5% 0.6%  
39 0.1% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations