Opinion Poll by Norstat, 17–23 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.5% 24.8–28.5% 24.2–29.0% 23.8–29.5% 23.0–30.4%
Høyre 25.0% 25.6% 23.8–27.5% 23.3–28.0% 22.9–28.5% 22.1–29.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.7% 12.3–15.2% 12.0–15.7% 11.6–16.0% 11.0–16.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.7% 9.5–12.1% 9.2–12.5% 8.9–12.9% 8.4–13.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.3–8.0% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Venstre 4.4% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.5% 3.3–7.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.4% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 45–52 43–53 43–55 41–56
Høyre 45 46 43–50 41–51 40–52 39–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–28 21–28 21–29 19–30
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–22 16–23 16–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 10–14 9–14 9–15 8–16
Venstre 8 9 7–11 2–11 2–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 2–10 1–10 1–11
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–6 1–7 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.5% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.5%  
43 5% 98%  
44 3% 93%  
45 13% 90%  
46 8% 77%  
47 11% 69%  
48 16% 58% Median
49 10% 42% Last Result
50 9% 32%  
51 5% 23%  
52 10% 17%  
53 4% 7%  
54 1.2% 4%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.7% 0.9%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.2% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 3% 99.3%  
41 2% 97%  
42 4% 94%  
43 8% 91%  
44 8% 83%  
45 19% 74% Last Result
46 11% 55% Median
47 12% 44%  
48 11% 32%  
49 7% 21%  
50 6% 14%  
51 6% 8%  
52 1.4% 3%  
53 0.5% 1.2%  
54 0.5% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.2%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.9%  
20 1.3% 99.1%  
21 4% 98%  
22 6% 94%  
23 9% 87%  
24 22% 79%  
25 22% 57% Median
26 15% 35%  
27 10% 20% Last Result
28 5% 10%  
29 3% 5%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.4% 100%  
15 0.7% 99.6%  
16 6% 98.9%  
17 11% 93%  
18 19% 82%  
19 18% 63% Last Result, Median
20 20% 45%  
21 14% 25%  
22 5% 11%  
23 3% 6%  
24 2% 2%  
25 0.3% 0.5%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.9% 100%  
9 5% 99.1%  
10 10% 94%  
11 36% 84% Last Result, Median
12 15% 48%  
13 21% 33%  
14 8% 12%  
15 3% 4%  
16 1.1% 1.2%  
17 0.1% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100%  
3 2% 94%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0.1% 92%  
7 7% 92%  
8 24% 85% Last Result
9 27% 60% Median
10 23% 33%  
11 8% 10%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.7% 0.8%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 3% 100%  
2 3% 97%  
3 32% 93%  
4 0% 62%  
5 0% 62%  
6 0.1% 62%  
7 8% 61%  
8 34% 53% Last Result, Median
9 13% 19%  
10 5% 6%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 49% 100% Last Result
2 46% 51% Median
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0.8% 6%  
7 3% 5%  
8 0.5% 2%  
9 1.4% 1.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 35% 99.7% Last Result
2 50% 64% Median
3 4% 15%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0.2% 11%  
7 6% 11%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 105 100% 100–110 98–111 97–112 95–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 87 77% 83–92 82–94 80–95 79–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 87% 83–92 82–93 80–95 78–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 86 66% 80–90 79–92 78–92 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 83 34% 79–89 77–90 77–91 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 17% 77–87 76–88 74–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 13% 77–86 76–87 74–89 72–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 8% 75–83 73–86 72–87 71–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 9% 75–84 73–86 72–87 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 76 1.2% 71–81 69–82 69–84 67–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.2% 69–79 67–80 67–80 65–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0% 67–76 65–77 65–78 62–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 63–72 62–73 61–75 59–76
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 61 0% 56–65 55–66 53–68 51–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 56–64 55–66 54–66 52–68
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 34 0% 30–38 28–39 27–40 24–42

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.7%  
95 1.0% 99.6%  
96 1.0% 98.6%  
97 1.1% 98%  
98 4% 96%  
99 1.4% 93%  
100 4% 91%  
101 5% 87%  
102 6% 82%  
103 9% 76%  
104 7% 67%  
105 11% 59%  
106 13% 48%  
107 9% 35% Last Result, Median
108 5% 25%  
109 6% 20%  
110 8% 14%  
111 3% 6%  
112 2% 3%  
113 1.0% 1.1%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.4% 99.7%  
80 2% 99.2%  
81 1.3% 97%  
82 5% 96%  
83 4% 92%  
84 11% 88%  
85 5% 77% Majority
86 9% 72%  
87 13% 63%  
88 9% 50% Last Result, Median
89 12% 41%  
90 8% 29%  
91 7% 21%  
92 5% 14%  
93 3% 9%  
94 2% 6%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.7% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.9%  
98 0.4% 0.6%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.7%  
79 1.1% 99.3%  
80 1.0% 98%  
81 2% 97%  
82 4% 96%  
83 2% 91%  
84 2% 89%  
85 10% 87% Majority
86 7% 77%  
87 11% 70%  
88 11% 60%  
89 19% 49% Last Result
90 7% 30% Median
91 7% 23%  
92 7% 16%  
93 5% 9%  
94 2% 4%  
95 0.9% 3%  
96 1.4% 2%  
97 0.4% 0.6%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.7%  
76 0.6% 99.4%  
77 0.5% 98.8%  
78 3% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 6% 94%  
81 4% 88%  
82 3% 85%  
83 9% 82%  
84 7% 73%  
85 6% 66% Majority
86 12% 60%  
87 18% 48%  
88 9% 30% Last Result, Median
89 5% 22%  
90 8% 16%  
91 4% 9%  
92 3% 5%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 1.0% 1.5%  
95 0.4% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.4% 99.9%  
75 1.0% 99.5%  
76 1.0% 98.5%  
77 3% 98%  
78 4% 95%  
79 8% 91%  
80 5% 84%  
81 9% 78% Last Result
82 18% 70% Median
83 12% 52%  
84 6% 40%  
85 7% 34% Majority
86 9% 27%  
87 3% 18%  
88 4% 15%  
89 6% 12%  
90 2% 6%  
91 3% 4%  
92 0.5% 2%  
93 0.6% 1.2%  
94 0.2% 0.6%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.8% 99.8%  
74 2% 99.0%  
75 0.7% 97%  
76 5% 96%  
77 4% 91%  
78 7% 87%  
79 9% 81%  
80 15% 71% Last Result, Median
81 13% 56%  
82 8% 44%  
83 6% 35%  
84 12% 29%  
85 3% 17% Majority
86 3% 14%  
87 4% 12%  
88 5% 8%  
89 1.3% 3%  
90 1.3% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.8%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.8%  
73 1.4% 99.4%  
74 0.9% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 5% 96%  
77 7% 91%  
78 7% 84%  
79 7% 77%  
80 19% 70% Last Result, Median
81 11% 51%  
82 11% 40%  
83 7% 30%  
84 10% 23%  
85 2% 13% Majority
86 2% 11%  
87 4% 9%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.0% 3%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 1.0% 99.6%  
72 2% 98.5%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 4% 91%  
76 9% 87%  
77 7% 78%  
78 16% 71% Median
79 12% 55% Last Result
80 11% 43%  
81 8% 32%  
82 10% 24%  
83 4% 14%  
84 2% 10%  
85 2% 8% Majority
86 3% 6%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.3% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.6%  
70 0.5% 99.4%  
71 0.7% 98.8%  
72 0.8% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 2% 94%  
75 6% 93%  
76 7% 87%  
77 7% 80%  
78 12% 74%  
79 13% 62%  
80 11% 49% Last Result, Median
81 6% 38%  
82 10% 32%  
83 8% 23%  
84 6% 15%  
85 3% 9% Majority
86 3% 6%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 1.2% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.3% 99.9%  
67 1.1% 99.6%  
68 0.6% 98.5%  
69 3% 98%  
70 3% 95%  
71 7% 92%  
72 5% 86%  
73 7% 80%  
74 8% 74%  
75 11% 66%  
76 10% 54%  
77 16% 45% Last Result, Median
78 8% 29%  
79 3% 21%  
80 4% 17%  
81 6% 13%  
82 4% 7%  
83 0.7% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.3% 1.2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.9%  
87 0.1% 0.4%  
88 0.3% 0.3%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.5%  
66 1.5% 99.1%  
67 3% 98%  
68 4% 95%  
69 5% 91%  
70 6% 86%  
71 9% 80%  
72 6% 71%  
73 15% 65%  
74 7% 50%  
75 16% 43% Median
76 9% 27% Last Result
77 4% 18%  
78 4% 14%  
79 4% 10%  
80 3% 6%  
81 0.9% 2%  
82 0.5% 1.3%  
83 0.3% 0.7%  
84 0.3% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.5% 99.4%  
64 1.2% 98.9%  
65 3% 98%  
66 4% 94%  
67 5% 90%  
68 8% 86%  
69 13% 77%  
70 8% 64%  
71 14% 56% Median
72 8% 42% Last Result
73 8% 34%  
74 7% 26%  
75 9% 19%  
76 5% 10%  
77 2% 6%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.4% 0.9%  
80 0.2% 0.5%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.5% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.5%  
61 2% 98.8%  
62 2% 97%  
63 5% 95%  
64 7% 89%  
65 12% 82%  
66 7% 70%  
67 22% 63% Median
68 9% 41% Last Result
69 6% 32%  
70 9% 26%  
71 6% 17%  
72 5% 11%  
73 2% 7%  
74 1.2% 4%  
75 0.7% 3%  
76 2% 2%  
77 0.2% 0.4%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.2% 99.8%  
51 0.4% 99.6%  
52 1.1% 99.3%  
53 1.4% 98%  
54 2% 97%  
55 3% 95%  
56 6% 92%  
57 5% 86%  
58 8% 81%  
59 6% 73%  
60 9% 67%  
61 8% 58% Last Result
62 10% 49%  
63 16% 39% Median
64 9% 23%  
65 7% 14%  
66 2% 7%  
67 2% 5%  
68 2% 3%  
69 0.7% 1.1%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.8%  
53 1.3% 99.3%  
54 3% 98%  
55 3% 95%  
56 9% 92%  
57 7% 83%  
58 9% 76%  
59 12% 66% Median
60 12% 54% Last Result
61 11% 42%  
62 8% 30%  
63 7% 23%  
64 7% 15%  
65 2% 8%  
66 3% 5%  
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0.7% 1.1%  
69 0.2% 0.4%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.2% 99.8%  
24 0.3% 99.7%  
25 0.5% 99.4%  
26 0.5% 99.0%  
27 2% 98%  
28 3% 97%  
29 2% 94%  
30 5% 92%  
31 12% 86%  
32 9% 74%  
33 12% 64%  
34 10% 53%  
35 5% 43% Last Result
36 7% 38% Median
37 16% 31%  
38 8% 15%  
39 4% 7%  
40 2% 3%  
41 0.6% 1.3%  
42 0.5% 0.6%  
43 0.1% 0.2%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations