Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 23–25 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.3% 25.5–29.3% 25.0–29.8% 24.6–30.3% 23.8–31.2%
Høyre 25.0% 25.8% 24.0–27.6% 23.5–28.2% 23.1–28.7% 22.3–29.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.5% 12.2–15.0% 11.8–15.5% 11.5–15.9% 10.9–16.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.9% 9.7–12.3% 9.3–12.7% 9.0–13.0% 8.5–13.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.2–8.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.6%
Rødt 2.4% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.7–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 51 47–55 46–56 45–57 43–59
Høyre 45 47 44–52 43–53 42–53 40–56
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–28 21–29 21–30 20–31
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 17–24 17–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–13 9–14 8–14 8–15
Venstre 8 3 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–3 1–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.5% 99.9%  
44 1.1% 99.4%  
45 2% 98%  
46 5% 97%  
47 7% 92%  
48 6% 85%  
49 15% 80% Last Result
50 10% 65%  
51 9% 54% Median
52 12% 45%  
53 12% 33%  
54 7% 21%  
55 7% 13%  
56 3% 6%  
57 1.5% 3%  
58 1.0% 2%  
59 0.3% 0.6%  
60 0.3% 0.4%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.5% 99.8%  
41 1.2% 99.3%  
42 1.4% 98%  
43 3% 97%  
44 6% 94%  
45 14% 87% Last Result
46 11% 73%  
47 13% 62% Median
48 13% 50%  
49 12% 36%  
50 4% 24%  
51 7% 20%  
52 7% 13%  
53 3% 5%  
54 1.4% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.8%  
56 0.1% 0.5%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.4% 99.9%  
20 1.4% 99.5%  
21 4% 98%  
22 7% 94%  
23 8% 87%  
24 14% 80%  
25 21% 66% Median
26 15% 45%  
27 15% 30% Last Result
28 8% 14%  
29 3% 6%  
30 3% 3%  
31 0.4% 0.7%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0.1% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 2% 99.6%  
17 6% 98%  
18 14% 91%  
19 16% 77% Last Result
20 21% 61% Median
21 14% 40%  
22 11% 26%  
23 8% 16%  
24 4% 7%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0.1% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.2% 99.8%  
8 2% 99.6%  
9 14% 97%  
10 21% 84%  
11 22% 63% Last Result, Median
12 24% 41%  
13 11% 17%  
14 4% 6%  
15 1.4% 2%  
16 0.3% 0.3%  
17 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 48% 99.8%  
3 5% 52% Median
4 0% 46%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0.2% 46%  
7 6% 46%  
8 26% 40% Last Result
9 11% 14%  
10 3% 3%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 12% 99.8%  
2 9% 88%  
3 47% 79% Median
4 0% 33%  
5 0% 33%  
6 0.2% 33%  
7 9% 32%  
8 14% 24% Last Result
9 7% 10%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 14% 100% Last Result
2 69% 86% Median
3 0% 17%  
4 0% 17%  
5 0% 17%  
6 0.2% 17%  
7 5% 17%  
8 8% 11%  
9 3% 3%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100%  
1 61% 98.5% Last Result, Median
2 30% 38%  
3 5% 8%  
4 0.4% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 0.6% 3%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 103 100% 97–107 95–108 95–109 92–111
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 88 80% 83–93 82–95 81–96 79–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 87 69% 82–92 81–93 80–95 76–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 55% 80–90 79–91 78–93 75–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 84 42% 79–89 77–90 76–91 74–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 84 42% 79–88 78–89 76–91 73–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 28% 78–87 76–88 75–90 73–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 82 29% 77–87 75–88 74–89 72–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 77 4% 72–83 71–84 70–85 68–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 78 4% 73–83 71–84 70–85 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 0.8% 70–81 69–82 69–83 66–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0% 68–77 67–79 65–80 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 71 0% 67–76 65–77 64–78 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 66 0% 62–71 61–73 59–74 58–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 62 0% 58–66 56–68 56–68 54–70
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 57 0% 52–62 51–63 49–64 47–67
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 29 0% 25–35 23–36 23–37 21–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
88 0% 100%  
89 0.1% 99.9%  
90 0.1% 99.9%  
91 0.1% 99.8%  
92 0.3% 99.7%  
93 0.8% 99.3%  
94 0.7% 98.5%  
95 3% 98%  
96 2% 95%  
97 2% 92%  
98 6% 90% Median
99 9% 84%  
100 6% 76%  
101 10% 70%  
102 7% 60%  
103 15% 53%  
104 8% 39%  
105 12% 31%  
106 5% 19%  
107 7% 14% Last Result
108 3% 7%  
109 2% 4%  
110 1.4% 2%  
111 0.5% 0.8%  
112 0.2% 0.3%  
113 0% 0.1%  
114 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 1.1% 99.5%  
80 0.6% 98%  
81 2% 98%  
82 3% 96%  
83 5% 93%  
84 8% 88%  
85 4% 80% Majority
86 9% 76% Median
87 12% 67%  
88 9% 54% Last Result
89 12% 45%  
90 4% 34%  
91 8% 29%  
92 8% 22%  
93 5% 14%  
94 3% 9%  
95 2% 5%  
96 1.3% 3%  
97 1.0% 2%  
98 0.3% 0.6%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.4% 99.9%  
77 0.6% 99.5%  
78 0.7% 98.9%  
79 0.6% 98%  
80 2% 98%  
81 4% 96% Last Result
82 4% 92%  
83 12% 87%  
84 6% 76%  
85 7% 69% Median, Majority
86 12% 62%  
87 10% 50%  
88 9% 40%  
89 8% 31%  
90 6% 23%  
91 6% 17%  
92 4% 11%  
93 3% 7%  
94 1.5% 4%  
95 1.4% 3%  
96 0.7% 1.4%  
97 0.4% 0.7%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.6% 99.7%  
76 0.5% 99.1%  
77 1.0% 98.7%  
78 1.3% 98%  
79 2% 96%  
80 5% 95% Last Result
81 8% 90%  
82 9% 82%  
83 7% 72%  
84 10% 66% Median
85 13% 55% Majority
86 7% 43%  
87 8% 35%  
88 8% 28%  
89 5% 19%  
90 7% 14%  
91 3% 7%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.6% 3%  
94 2% 2%  
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.3% 0.5%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.8%  
75 0.9% 99.2%  
76 2% 98%  
77 0.9% 96%  
78 3% 95%  
79 4% 92%  
80 7% 87% Last Result
81 12% 81%  
82 7% 69%  
83 6% 62% Median
84 15% 57%  
85 9% 42% Majority
86 9% 33%  
87 5% 24%  
88 7% 19%  
89 5% 12%  
90 2% 7%  
91 3% 5%  
92 1.1% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.0%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.2% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 0.2% 99.4%  
75 2% 99.2%  
76 0.7% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 3% 95%  
79 7% 92% Median
80 6% 85%  
81 9% 79%  
82 8% 70%  
83 7% 63%  
84 13% 55%  
85 9% 42% Majority
86 7% 33%  
87 9% 26%  
88 8% 17%  
89 4% 9% Last Result
90 2% 5%  
91 1.1% 3%  
92 0.9% 2%  
93 0.3% 1.0%  
94 0.4% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.8% 99.5%  
74 1.0% 98.7%  
75 3% 98%  
76 2% 95%  
77 3% 93%  
78 6% 90%  
79 8% 84% Last Result
80 11% 76%  
81 7% 65%  
82 10% 58% Median
83 13% 48%  
84 7% 35%  
85 7% 28% Majority
86 7% 21%  
87 5% 14%  
88 6% 9%  
89 1.0% 4%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.2% 0.7%  
92 0.4% 0.5%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.7%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 0.8% 99.2%  
74 2% 98%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 95%  
77 4% 92%  
78 6% 88% Median
79 7% 82%  
80 8% 75%  
81 9% 67%  
82 10% 58%  
83 12% 48%  
84 7% 36%  
85 6% 29% Majority
86 12% 23%  
87 4% 11%  
88 3% 7% Last Result
89 2% 4%  
90 0.6% 2%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.5% 0.8%  
93 0.3% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 0.8% 99.1%  
70 3% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 7% 93%  
73 5% 86%  
74 8% 81%  
75 9% 73% Median
76 10% 65%  
77 10% 54% Last Result
78 9% 45%  
79 7% 36%  
80 12% 28%  
81 3% 17%  
82 4% 14%  
83 5% 10%  
84 2% 5%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 0.6% 1.3%  
87 0.4% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.4% 99.6%  
69 0.6% 99.2%  
70 1.4% 98.7%  
71 2% 97%  
72 4% 95%  
73 6% 91%  
74 7% 85%  
75 7% 78% Median
76 10% 71%  
77 5% 61%  
78 8% 56%  
79 13% 48%  
80 10% 35% Last Result
81 8% 25%  
82 4% 16%  
83 7% 12%  
84 2% 5%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.3% 0.7%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.4%  
68 1.1% 98.8%  
69 3% 98%  
70 6% 94%  
71 4% 88%  
72 7% 84%  
73 11% 77%  
74 7% 67% Median
75 11% 60%  
76 10% 49% Last Result
77 9% 39%  
78 7% 30%  
79 9% 23%  
80 3% 14%  
81 4% 11%  
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.3% 2%  
85 0.6% 0.8% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.4%  
65 2% 98.8%  
66 1.1% 97%  
67 3% 95%  
68 4% 93%  
69 5% 89%  
70 10% 84%  
71 10% 75%  
72 12% 65% Last Result, Median
73 10% 53%  
74 9% 43%  
75 9% 34%  
76 9% 24%  
77 6% 15%  
78 2% 9%  
79 3% 7%  
80 3% 4%  
81 0.2% 1.1%  
82 0.4% 0.9%  
83 0.4% 0.5%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.5% 99.7%  
63 0.7% 99.2%  
64 2% 98.5%  
65 3% 97%  
66 3% 94%  
67 8% 91%  
68 9% 83% Last Result
69 8% 74%  
70 12% 66%  
71 9% 54% Median
72 10% 46%  
73 8% 36%  
74 6% 28%  
75 8% 22%  
76 8% 14%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 4%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.7%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.6%  
59 2% 99.0%  
60 2% 97%  
61 3% 96%  
62 7% 92% Last Result
63 5% 85%  
64 12% 80%  
65 8% 68% Median
66 15% 60%  
67 8% 45%  
68 10% 37%  
69 5% 28%  
70 9% 22%  
71 5% 13%  
72 2% 8%  
73 2% 6%  
74 2% 4%  
75 0.6% 2%  
76 0.7% 1.2%  
77 0.3% 0.5%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 1.0% 99.6%  
55 0.8% 98.6%  
56 3% 98%  
57 3% 95%  
58 4% 91%  
59 10% 87%  
60 10% 77% Last Result
61 11% 68%  
62 11% 57% Median
63 14% 46%  
64 9% 32%  
65 10% 23%  
66 4% 13%  
67 4% 9%  
68 3% 5%  
69 1.1% 2%  
70 0.8% 1.2%  
71 0.3% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.4% 99.7%  
48 0.8% 99.2%  
49 2% 98%  
50 0.9% 97%  
51 4% 96%  
52 9% 92%  
53 6% 82% Median
54 6% 76%  
55 7% 71%  
56 8% 63%  
57 10% 55%  
58 8% 45%  
59 8% 37%  
60 7% 29%  
61 11% 22% Last Result
62 4% 11%  
63 3% 7%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.5% 2%  
66 1.0% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.7%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.6%  
22 1.4% 99.0%  
23 4% 98%  
24 3% 94%  
25 9% 90%  
26 4% 82% Median
27 9% 78%  
28 10% 69%  
29 13% 59%  
30 6% 46%  
31 10% 40%  
32 9% 31%  
33 7% 22%  
34 5% 15%  
35 4% 10% Last Result
36 3% 7%  
37 2% 4%  
38 0.5% 2%  
39 0.4% 1.1%  
40 0.6% 0.7%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations