Opinion Poll by Norstat, 25–31 October 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.9% 24.2–27.8% 23.7–28.4% 23.2–28.8% 22.4–29.8%
Høyre 25.0% 25.8% 24.1–27.7% 23.5–28.3% 23.1–28.7% 22.3–29.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.5% 13.1–16.1% 12.7–16.5% 12.4–16.9% 11.8–17.7%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.7% 10.5–13.2% 10.1–13.6% 9.8–14.0% 9.3–14.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 5.9–9.3% 5.5–10.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.2% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.4% 3.1–5.7% 2.7–6.1%
Venstre 4.4% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 1.9–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%
Rødt 2.4% 2.3% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.3–3.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 44–50 43–51 42–52 41–54
Høyre 45 47 43–50 42–51 41–52 40–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–29 22–30 22–30 21–32
Senterpartiet 19 21 19–24 18–25 18–26 17–27
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 2–10 1–11 1–11
Venstre 8 3 2–9 2–9 2–9 2–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–8
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.3% 99.9%  
41 1.2% 99.6%  
42 2% 98%  
43 5% 97%  
44 5% 91%  
45 7% 86%  
46 18% 79%  
47 14% 60% Median
48 13% 46%  
49 12% 33% Last Result
50 12% 21%  
51 5% 9%  
52 2% 4%  
53 0.5% 2%  
54 0.7% 1.2%  
55 0.3% 0.5%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 1.0% 99.7%  
41 1.4% 98.7%  
42 4% 97%  
43 7% 93%  
44 11% 86%  
45 11% 75% Last Result
46 8% 64%  
47 19% 57% Median
48 10% 37%  
49 13% 28%  
50 5% 15%  
51 6% 10%  
52 2% 4%  
53 0.5% 2%  
54 0.7% 1.2%  
55 0.2% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 1.0% 99.8%  
22 4% 98.8%  
23 3% 95%  
24 18% 92%  
25 18% 74%  
26 14% 56% Median
27 17% 42% Last Result
28 9% 25%  
29 9% 17%  
30 5% 7%  
31 1.2% 2%  
32 0.7% 1.1%  
33 0.3% 0.5%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.3% 100%  
17 2% 99.7%  
18 3% 98%  
19 4% 94% Last Result
20 17% 90%  
21 26% 73% Median
22 17% 47%  
23 14% 30%  
24 8% 16%  
25 5% 9%  
26 2% 3%  
27 0.8% 1.1%  
28 0.1% 0.2%  
29 0.1% 0.1%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.9%  
11 5% 98.5% Last Result
12 14% 94%  
13 20% 79%  
14 23% 59% Median
15 23% 36%  
16 10% 13%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.8% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 2% 97%  
3 28% 94%  
4 0% 66%  
5 0% 66%  
6 0% 66%  
7 14% 66%  
8 26% 52% Last Result, Median
9 17% 26%  
10 6% 10%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 46% 99.7%  
3 11% 54% Median
4 0.6% 43%  
5 0% 42%  
6 0% 42%  
7 16% 42%  
8 16% 26% Last Result
9 8% 10%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 77% 96% Last Result, Median
2 17% 19%  
3 0.7% 2%  
4 0% 1.5%  
5 0% 1.5%  
6 0% 1.5%  
7 0.7% 1.5%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 85% 99.8% Last Result, Median
2 15% 15%  
3 0% 0.4%  
4 0% 0.4%  
5 0% 0.4%  
6 0% 0.4%  
7 0.1% 0.4%  
8 0.2% 0.2%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 105 100% 102–109 101–110 100–112 97–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 90 95% 86–95 85–96 84–97 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 85 52% 81–88 80–90 79–92 77–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 85 54% 82–89 80–91 78–92 76–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 84 46% 80–87 78–89 78–91 76–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 84 46% 80–87 78–89 77–91 76–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 84 48% 81–88 79–89 77–90 75–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 29% 78–86 77–88 76–89 75–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 78 2% 73–82 72–83 71–84 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 76 0.9% 73–81 71–83 70–83 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 75 0.4% 72–80 70–82 69–82 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 72 0.1% 69–78 68–80 67–80 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 65–73 64–74 63–75 61–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 64 0% 60–67 59–68 57–69 56–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 61 0% 57–64 56–65 55–67 54–69
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 58 0% 54–62 52–63 50–65 48–67
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 26–37 25–38 25–39 23–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0.1% 100%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.3% 99.6%  
98 0.5% 99.3%  
99 1.0% 98.9%  
100 2% 98%  
101 3% 95%  
102 4% 93%  
103 10% 89%  
104 15% 79%  
105 15% 64% Median
106 18% 49%  
107 11% 31% Last Result
108 6% 20%  
109 4% 14%  
110 4% 9%  
111 2% 5%  
112 2% 3%  
113 0.5% 0.8%  
114 0.3% 0.3%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.4% 99.9%  
81 0.5% 99.5%  
82 0.5% 99.1%  
83 0.6% 98.6%  
84 3% 98%  
85 4% 95% Majority
86 6% 92%  
87 4% 85%  
88 11% 81% Last Result
89 6% 70%  
90 20% 64%  
91 7% 43% Median
92 5% 36%  
93 11% 31%  
94 5% 21%  
95 7% 16%  
96 5% 9%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.3% 0.8%  
100 0.3% 0.5%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.7%  
78 1.5% 99.4%  
79 2% 98%  
80 5% 96%  
81 4% 91% Last Result
82 6% 88%  
83 8% 82%  
84 22% 74% Median
85 5% 52% Majority
86 13% 47%  
87 9% 34%  
88 16% 25%  
89 2% 9%  
90 2% 7%  
91 2% 5%  
92 1.2% 3%  
93 1.3% 2%  
94 0.3% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 1.2% 99.4%  
78 1.0% 98%  
79 1.1% 97%  
80 2% 96%  
81 2% 94%  
82 14% 92%  
83 10% 78%  
84 15% 69%  
85 5% 54% Median, Majority
86 19% 49%  
87 8% 29%  
88 7% 21%  
89 5% 14% Last Result
90 4% 9%  
91 2% 5%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.5% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.6%  
77 1.4% 99.2%  
78 3% 98%  
79 4% 94%  
80 4% 90% Last Result
81 5% 87%  
82 8% 81%  
83 23% 73% Median
84 4% 50%  
85 14% 46% Majority
86 8% 32%  
87 16% 24%  
88 2% 8%  
89 2% 6%  
90 1.5% 4%  
91 1.4% 3%  
92 0.9% 1.4%  
93 0.2% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.6%  
77 2% 99.2%  
78 2% 97%  
79 4% 95%  
80 5% 91% Last Result
81 7% 86%  
82 8% 79%  
83 19% 71% Median
84 5% 51%  
85 15% 46% Majority
86 10% 31%  
87 14% 22%  
88 2% 8%  
89 2% 6%  
90 1.1% 4%  
91 1.0% 3%  
92 1.2% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 1.3% 99.3%  
77 1.2% 98%  
78 2% 97%  
79 2% 95%  
80 2% 93%  
81 16% 91%  
82 9% 75%  
83 13% 66%  
84 5% 53% Median
85 22% 48% Majority
86 8% 26%  
87 6% 18%  
88 4% 12% Last Result
89 5% 9%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.5% 2%  
92 0.3% 0.6%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.6% 99.5%  
76 2% 98.9%  
77 4% 97%  
78 4% 94%  
79 4% 89% Last Result
80 7% 85%  
81 9% 78%  
82 21% 69% Median
83 5% 49%  
84 15% 44%  
85 9% 29% Majority
86 14% 20%  
87 2% 7%  
88 2% 5%  
89 1.0% 4%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.8% 1.3%  
92 0.1% 0.4%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.2% 100%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.4%  
70 1.2% 99.1%  
71 2% 98%  
72 6% 96%  
73 7% 90%  
74 6% 83%  
75 9% 77%  
76 5% 67% Median
77 7% 62%  
78 19% 55%  
79 7% 35%  
80 11% 28% Last Result
81 4% 18%  
82 6% 14%  
83 3% 7%  
84 3% 4%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 1.2%  
87 0.3% 0.7%  
88 0.3% 0.4%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.6% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.2%  
69 0.6% 98%  
70 0.7% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 2% 94%  
73 9% 92%  
74 11% 83%  
75 16% 72%  
76 13% 56%  
77 8% 43% Last Result, Median
78 4% 35%  
79 4% 31%  
80 9% 26%  
81 9% 18%  
82 3% 9%  
83 4% 6%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.9% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.8% 99.7%  
67 0.6% 98.9%  
68 0.7% 98%  
69 0.9% 98%  
70 3% 97%  
71 3% 93%  
72 12% 91%  
73 8% 78%  
74 15% 70%  
75 14% 55%  
76 8% 41% Last Result, Median
77 4% 33%  
78 6% 29%  
79 7% 23%  
80 8% 16%  
81 3% 9%  
82 4% 6%  
83 0.7% 1.4%  
84 0.3% 0.7%  
85 0.3% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.4%  
66 1.4% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 4% 95%  
69 6% 92%  
70 12% 86%  
71 18% 73%  
72 11% 55% Last Result
73 11% 44% Median
74 4% 33%  
75 5% 29%  
76 8% 24%  
77 3% 16%  
78 5% 14%  
79 1.4% 8%  
80 5% 7%  
81 0.8% 2%  
82 0.3% 1.0%  
83 0.5% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.8%  
62 0.6% 99.5%  
63 3% 98.9%  
64 5% 96%  
65 5% 91%  
66 5% 86%  
67 16% 81%  
68 13% 65% Last Result, Median
69 12% 52%  
70 7% 40%  
71 13% 33%  
72 10% 21%  
73 4% 11%  
74 4% 7%  
75 2% 3%  
76 1.0% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.8%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.2%  
58 2% 97%  
59 4% 95%  
60 4% 91%  
61 6% 86%  
62 11% 80% Last Result
63 18% 69% Median
64 15% 51%  
65 15% 36%  
66 10% 21%  
67 4% 11%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 5%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.5% 1.1%  
72 0.3% 0.7%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.3% 99.9%  
54 0.7% 99.5%  
55 2% 98.8%  
56 3% 97%  
57 5% 94%  
58 5% 88%  
59 9% 84%  
60 10% 75% Last Result
61 21% 65% Median
62 11% 44%  
63 16% 33%  
64 10% 17%  
65 2% 7%  
66 2% 5%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.6% 1.2%  
69 0.4% 0.6%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.9%  
48 0.6% 99.6%  
49 0.7% 99.1%  
50 1.0% 98%  
51 0.9% 97%  
52 2% 97%  
53 4% 95%  
54 11% 91%  
55 9% 80%  
56 8% 71%  
57 8% 62%  
58 13% 54% Median
59 9% 41%  
60 6% 33%  
61 14% 26% Last Result
62 3% 12%  
63 5% 9%  
64 1.5% 4%  
65 1.2% 3%  
66 0.7% 1.3%  
67 0.5% 0.6%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.6% 99.7%  
24 1.0% 99.1%  
25 6% 98%  
26 5% 92%  
27 6% 87%  
28 2% 82%  
29 3% 79%  
30 4% 77%  
31 7% 73%  
32 5% 66% Median
33 8% 61%  
34 10% 53%  
35 17% 43% Last Result
36 8% 26%  
37 7% 17%  
38 5% 10%  
39 3% 5%  
40 1.0% 2%  
41 0.7% 1.2%  
42 0.4% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations