Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 31 October–6 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 25.7% 23.7–27.8% 23.2–28.4% 22.7–28.9% 21.8–30.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.2% 23.2–27.3% 22.7–27.9% 22.2–28.4% 21.3–29.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.8% 13.3–16.6% 12.8–17.1% 12.5–17.6% 11.8–18.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.3% 9.9–12.9% 9.5–13.3% 9.2–13.7% 8.6–14.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.2–8.6% 5.9–9.0% 5.6–9.4% 5.2–10.1%
Venstre 4.4% 4.2% 3.4–5.3% 3.2–5.7% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.0% 3.2–5.0% 3.0–5.3% 2.8–5.6% 2.5–6.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.5% 2.4–6.0%
Rødt 2.4% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–4.0% 1.8–4.2% 1.6–4.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 45 42–51 41–52 40–53 39–54
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 42–49 41–49 41–50 39–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–29 23–30 22–31 21–33
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–23 17–24 16–25 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–14 11–16 10–16 9–17
Venstre 8 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 7 3–8 3–9 2–9 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 3 1–9 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–2 1–7 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.4% 99.9%  
39 1.3% 99.5%  
40 1.1% 98%  
41 3% 97%  
42 7% 94%  
43 13% 87%  
44 5% 74%  
45 19% 68% Last Result, Median
46 20% 49%  
47 3% 29%  
48 7% 26%  
49 5% 19%  
50 3% 14%  
51 4% 11%  
52 3% 7%  
53 3% 4%  
54 1.1% 1.4%  
55 0.3% 0.4%  
56 0.1% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0% 100%  
38 0.1% 99.9%  
39 0.4% 99.8%  
40 2% 99.4%  
41 7% 98%  
42 5% 91%  
43 14% 86%  
44 15% 73%  
45 12% 57% Median
46 16% 45%  
47 2% 30%  
48 8% 27%  
49 15% 20% Last Result
50 3% 5%  
51 0.8% 2%  
52 0.6% 1.3%  
53 0.2% 0.7%  
54 0.3% 0.5%  
55 0.2% 0.2%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.9%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.6% 99.6%  
22 2% 99.0%  
23 2% 97%  
24 7% 95%  
25 16% 88%  
26 28% 72% Median
27 22% 44% Last Result
28 6% 22%  
29 6% 15%  
30 5% 9%  
31 1.5% 4%  
32 1.0% 2%  
33 1.0% 1.2%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.4% 99.8%  
16 2% 99.4%  
17 13% 97%  
18 10% 84%  
19 28% 74% Last Result, Median
20 10% 46%  
21 6% 36%  
22 19% 31%  
23 6% 11%  
24 3% 6%  
25 2% 3%  
26 0.2% 0.6%  
27 0.2% 0.3%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 1.3% 99.9%  
10 2% 98.6%  
11 14% 96% Last Result
12 26% 83%  
13 20% 57% Median
14 29% 37%  
15 3% 8%  
16 3% 5%  
17 1.2% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.5%  
19 0.2% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 21% 99.9%  
3 2% 79%  
4 0% 76%  
5 0% 76%  
6 0% 76%  
7 18% 76%  
8 31% 58% Last Result, Median
9 21% 28%  
10 4% 6%  
11 1.2% 2%  
12 0.8% 0.8%  
13 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 2% 99.7%  
2 0.8% 98%  
3 44% 97%  
4 0% 53%  
5 0% 53%  
6 0.1% 53%  
7 20% 53% Median
8 28% 33% Last Result
9 3% 5%  
10 0.9% 2%  
11 0.8% 1.2%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 11% 100% Last Result
2 36% 89%  
3 12% 53% Median
4 0.1% 41%  
5 0% 41%  
6 0% 41%  
7 8% 41%  
8 21% 32%  
9 10% 12%  
10 0.9% 1.3%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 44% 99.9% Last Result
2 51% 56% Median
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0.1% 5%  
7 3% 5%  
8 1.3% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 104 100% 101–109 99–111 97–112 95–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 87 85% 83–93 82–96 80–99 77–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 89 92% 85–94 83–96 82–96 79–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 85 63% 80–89 79–92 78–92 76–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 84 37% 80–89 77–90 77–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 16% 78–87 77–89 76–91 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 80 8% 75–84 73–86 73–87 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 75 4% 71–80 69–83 67–87 65–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 9% 74–84 71–85 69–86 68–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 4% 73–82 72–84 71–85 70–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 72 0% 69–77 67–79 66–82 63–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 67–76 66–79 64–79 62–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 65 0% 61–70 60–71 60–72 58–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 65 0% 60–68 58–70 57–72 56–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 54–63 53–63 52–64 51–66
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 58 0% 54–62 52–63 52–64 48–66
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 32 0% 28–37 25–38 24–40 23–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0% 99.9%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.8%  
95 0.6% 99.6%  
96 0.2% 98.9%  
97 1.4% 98.7%  
98 0.7% 97%  
99 4% 97%  
100 2% 93%  
101 13% 91%  
102 14% 78%  
103 8% 64%  
104 7% 57%  
105 7% 49% Median
106 15% 42%  
107 12% 27% Last Result
108 3% 16%  
109 4% 13%  
110 2% 9%  
111 3% 7%  
112 3% 4%  
113 1.1% 1.3%  
114 0% 0.3%  
115 0.2% 0.2%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.7% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.2%  
79 1.0% 99.0%  
80 0.9% 98%  
81 0.7% 97%  
82 3% 96%  
83 6% 94%  
84 2% 88%  
85 5% 85% Majority
86 12% 80%  
87 22% 68% Median
88 9% 46% Last Result
89 4% 38%  
90 3% 34%  
91 17% 30%  
92 3% 13%  
93 2% 11%  
94 1.0% 9%  
95 2% 8%  
96 1.4% 6%  
97 0.8% 4%  
98 0.5% 3%  
99 3% 3%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.8%  
80 1.0% 99.3%  
81 0.5% 98%  
82 2% 98%  
83 1.1% 96%  
84 2% 95%  
85 17% 92% Majority
86 7% 75%  
87 12% 68%  
88 1.1% 57%  
89 9% 56% Last Result, Median
90 6% 46%  
91 5% 40%  
92 14% 35%  
93 8% 21%  
94 4% 13%  
95 2% 9%  
96 5% 7%  
97 0.9% 1.4%  
98 0.2% 0.5%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.7%  
77 1.0% 99.3%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 96%  
80 8% 93%  
81 8% 85% Last Result
82 5% 77% Median
83 5% 72%  
84 4% 67%  
85 32% 63% Majority
86 14% 31%  
87 4% 16%  
88 2% 12%  
89 2% 10%  
90 2% 8%  
91 1.4% 7%  
92 3% 5%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.7% 1.1%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.6%  
76 1.0% 98.9%  
77 3% 98%  
78 1.4% 95%  
79 2% 93%  
80 2% 92%  
81 2% 90%  
82 4% 88%  
83 14% 84%  
84 32% 69%  
85 4% 37% Majority
86 5% 33% Median
87 5% 28%  
88 8% 23% Last Result
89 8% 15%  
90 3% 7%  
91 2% 4%  
92 1.0% 2%  
93 0.4% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.8% 99.7%  
75 0.5% 98.9%  
76 2% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 5% 94%  
79 9% 89%  
80 9% 80% Last Result, Median
81 5% 72%  
82 5% 67%  
83 22% 62%  
84 24% 40%  
85 4% 16% Majority
86 2% 12%  
87 3% 10%  
88 1.3% 8%  
89 2% 6%  
90 0.8% 5%  
91 3% 4%  
92 0.4% 1.2%  
93 0.6% 0.8%  
94 0.2% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 0.9% 99.5%  
73 5% 98.6%  
74 2% 93%  
75 4% 91%  
76 8% 87%  
77 14% 79%  
78 5% 65%  
79 6% 60% Median
80 9% 54% Last Result
81 1.1% 44%  
82 12% 43%  
83 7% 32%  
84 17% 25%  
85 2% 8% Majority
86 1.1% 5%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.5% 2%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.8% 99.8%  
66 0.8% 99.0%  
67 0.8% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 3% 95%  
70 2% 92%  
71 4% 91%  
72 4% 87%  
73 18% 83%  
74 13% 65% Median
75 7% 52%  
76 8% 46%  
77 15% 37% Last Result
78 10% 22%  
79 2% 13%  
80 2% 11%  
81 1.5% 9%  
82 2% 7%  
83 1.1% 6%  
84 0.8% 4%  
85 0.2% 4% Majority
86 0.6% 3%  
87 3% 3%  
88 0% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.1%  
70 0.9% 97%  
71 1.0% 96%  
72 2% 95%  
73 1.4% 92%  
74 2% 91%  
75 3% 89%  
76 11% 86%  
77 10% 75%  
78 4% 66%  
79 6% 62% Median
80 16% 55% Last Result
81 21% 39%  
82 3% 18%  
83 3% 16%  
84 4% 12%  
85 4% 9% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.3% 2%  
88 1.1% 2%  
89 0.7% 1.0%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.6%  
71 2% 99.3%  
72 5% 97%  
73 4% 92%  
74 3% 88%  
75 18% 85%  
76 7% 66%  
77 4% 59% Median
78 10% 56%  
79 4% 45% Last Result
80 11% 41%  
81 2% 30%  
82 19% 29%  
83 4% 10%  
84 2% 6%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.0%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.4% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.5%  
64 0.3% 99.4%  
65 0.6% 99.0%  
66 2% 98%  
67 4% 96%  
68 2% 92%  
69 13% 91%  
70 12% 77%  
71 3% 65% Median
72 26% 62% Last Result
73 10% 36%  
74 3% 26%  
75 5% 24%  
76 3% 19%  
77 8% 16%  
78 1.1% 8%  
79 3% 7%  
80 0.6% 4%  
81 0.4% 3%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.7% 1.4%  
84 0.7% 0.7%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 2% 99.5%  
64 1.0% 98%  
65 0.7% 97%  
66 3% 96%  
67 7% 93%  
68 2% 86%  
69 23% 84%  
70 8% 60%  
71 26% 52% Median
72 6% 26%  
73 6% 21%  
74 1.3% 14%  
75 3% 13%  
76 3% 10% Last Result
77 0.6% 7%  
78 0.7% 6%  
79 3% 6%  
80 1.4% 2%  
81 0.4% 0.9%  
82 0.3% 0.5%  
83 0.2% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.6%  
59 1.3% 99.2%  
60 4% 98%  
61 15% 94%  
62 10% 79%  
63 6% 69%  
64 9% 63% Median
65 6% 54%  
66 4% 48%  
67 6% 45%  
68 26% 39% Last Result
69 3% 13%  
70 3% 10%  
71 4% 7%  
72 2% 3%  
73 0.7% 1.5%  
74 0.2% 0.8%  
75 0.5% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.2% 99.9%  
55 0% 99.8%  
56 1.1% 99.7%  
57 3% 98.7%  
58 3% 96%  
59 2% 93%  
60 4% 91%  
61 3% 87%  
62 12% 84% Last Result
63 15% 73% Median
64 7% 58%  
65 7% 51%  
66 8% 43%  
67 14% 36%  
68 13% 22%  
69 2% 9%  
70 4% 7%  
71 0.7% 3%  
72 1.4% 3%  
73 0.2% 1.3%  
74 0.6% 1.1%  
75 0.2% 0.4%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.4% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.5%  
52 2% 99.1%  
53 3% 97%  
54 11% 94%  
55 5% 83%  
56 9% 79%  
57 8% 70%  
58 24% 61% Median
59 6% 38%  
60 5% 32% Last Result
61 6% 27%  
62 5% 21%  
63 13% 16%  
64 0.9% 3%  
65 0.9% 2%  
66 0.7% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.3% 99.6%  
49 0.2% 99.4%  
50 0.6% 99.1%  
51 1.0% 98.6%  
52 4% 98%  
53 3% 94%  
54 2% 90%  
55 2% 88%  
56 5% 86%  
57 25% 81%  
58 13% 56%  
59 14% 43%  
60 9% 29% Median
61 6% 20% Last Result
62 9% 14%  
63 1.3% 5%  
64 2% 4%  
65 0.7% 1.4%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.2% 0.4%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.2% 99.8%  
23 2% 99.6%  
24 3% 98%  
25 0.9% 95%  
26 2% 94%  
27 2% 92%  
28 3% 91%  
29 4% 87%  
30 14% 83%  
31 6% 69%  
32 16% 63%  
33 9% 47%  
34 21% 38% Median
35 5% 18% Last Result
36 1.5% 13%  
37 5% 11%  
38 3% 7%  
39 0.6% 4%  
40 1.5% 3%  
41 1.4% 2%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations