Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 7–8 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.0% 25.1–29.0% 24.5–29.6% 24.1–30.1% 23.2–31.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.6% 24.7–28.6% 24.2–29.2% 23.7–29.7% 22.9–30.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.7% 13.2–16.3% 12.8–16.8% 12.4–17.2% 11.8–18.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.6% 9.3–12.0% 9.0–12.4% 8.7–12.8% 8.1–13.5%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.2–8.5% 5.9–8.9% 5.7–9.2% 5.2–9.9%
Venstre 4.4% 3.8% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–5.0% 2.7–5.3% 2.4–5.8%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.3–4.7% 2.0–5.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.2% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.2–4.6% 1.9–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 46–54 45–55 44–56 42–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 49 46–53 44–53 43–55 42–57
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 24–30 23–32 23–32 21–33
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–22 16–23 16–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Venstre 8 2 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 0–8 0–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.8%  
43 1.2% 99.5%  
44 3% 98%  
45 5% 95% Last Result
46 7% 90%  
47 7% 84%  
48 18% 76%  
49 12% 58% Median
50 9% 46%  
51 10% 37%  
52 11% 26%  
53 4% 15%  
54 4% 12%  
55 4% 8%  
56 3% 4%  
57 0.7% 1.1%  
58 0.3% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.3% 99.9%  
42 1.0% 99.6%  
43 2% 98.7%  
44 3% 97%  
45 4% 94%  
46 13% 90%  
47 12% 78%  
48 9% 66%  
49 10% 57% Last Result, Median
50 15% 47%  
51 13% 32%  
52 7% 19%  
53 7% 12%  
54 1.2% 5%  
55 1.2% 3%  
56 1.3% 2%  
57 0.6% 1.0%  
58 0.3% 0.5%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.2% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.8%  
22 2% 99.4%  
23 5% 98%  
24 5% 93%  
25 13% 87%  
26 14% 75%  
27 16% 61% Last Result, Median
28 18% 45%  
29 8% 27%  
30 9% 19%  
31 5% 10%  
32 4% 5%  
33 1.0% 1.3%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 1.1% 99.7%  
16 4% 98.6%  
17 9% 94%  
18 17% 85%  
19 14% 68% Last Result
20 18% 54% Median
21 13% 35%  
22 14% 22%  
23 7% 9%  
24 1.2% 2%  
25 0.6% 1.0%  
26 0.3% 0.3%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.4% 99.9%  
10 2% 99.5%  
11 9% 98% Last Result
12 18% 89%  
13 23% 70% Median
14 21% 47%  
15 14% 26%  
16 8% 12%  
17 2% 4%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.4% 100%  
2 56% 99.6% Median
3 5% 44%  
4 0.1% 39%  
5 0% 39%  
6 0% 39%  
7 8% 39%  
8 20% 31% Last Result
9 8% 11%  
10 2% 3%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 15% 100% Last Result
2 72% 85% Median
3 0% 13%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 6% 13%  
8 5% 7%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 32% 92%  
2 13% 61% Median
3 37% 48%  
4 0% 11%  
5 0% 11%  
6 0% 11%  
7 3% 11%  
8 7% 8% Last Result
9 0.9% 1.1%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Median
1 46% 48% Last Result
2 2% 2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 103 100% 99–108 98–109 97–110 94–112
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 86 62% 81–90 80–92 79–93 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 85 56% 81–90 80–92 78–93 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 85 57% 80–89 79–91 78–92 75–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 84 43% 80–89 78–90 77–91 75–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 83 38% 79–88 77–89 76–90 75–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 28% 78–87 77–89 75–90 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 83 25% 77–87 77–88 75–90 73–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 19% 76–86 75–87 74–88 71–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 77 1.4% 72–82 71–83 70–84 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 72 0% 68–76 66–78 65–79 63–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 67–76 66–77 65–78 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 69 0% 64–73 63–75 62–75 60–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 66 0% 61–70 60–71 59–72 57–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 63 0% 58–67 57–68 56–69 54–71
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 56 0% 52–61 51–63 50–64 47–67
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 26 0% 22–32 21–33 21–34 19–36

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.2% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.8%  
94 0.4% 99.6%  
95 0.6% 99.2%  
96 1.0% 98.6%  
97 2% 98%  
98 2% 96%  
99 6% 93%  
100 3% 88% Median
101 10% 85%  
102 14% 74%  
103 17% 60%  
104 8% 44%  
105 8% 36%  
106 13% 28%  
107 2% 15% Last Result
108 6% 13%  
109 4% 7%  
110 2% 3%  
111 1.0% 2%  
112 0.3% 0.6%  
113 0.2% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 0.6% 99.0%  
78 0.8% 98%  
79 3% 98%  
80 3% 95%  
81 3% 92% Last Result
82 9% 89%  
83 10% 80%  
84 7% 70% Median
85 12% 62% Majority
86 19% 50%  
87 9% 31%  
88 5% 21%  
89 4% 16%  
90 5% 12%  
91 2% 7%  
92 3% 5%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.6% 1.1%  
95 0.1% 0.4%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.6%  
77 0.7% 99.3%  
78 1.4% 98.6%  
79 2% 97%  
80 4% 95%  
81 7% 91%  
82 10% 84%  
83 9% 75%  
84 10% 66% Median
85 9% 56% Majority
86 7% 47%  
87 13% 40%  
88 12% 27% Last Result
89 3% 15%  
90 4% 13%  
91 3% 9%  
92 3% 6%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.5% 1.1%  
95 0.3% 0.6%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.6% 99.8%  
76 0.5% 99.2%  
77 0.5% 98.7%  
78 1.5% 98%  
79 4% 97%  
80 3% 93% Last Result
81 2% 89%  
82 10% 87%  
83 11% 77%  
84 8% 66% Median
85 21% 57% Majority
86 9% 37%  
87 9% 28%  
88 6% 19%  
89 3% 13%  
90 4% 10%  
91 3% 6%  
92 1.0% 3%  
93 2% 2%  
94 0.3% 0.7%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.2% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 2% 99.3%  
77 1.0% 98%  
78 3% 97%  
79 4% 94%  
80 3% 90% Median
81 6% 87%  
82 9% 81%  
83 9% 72%  
84 21% 63%  
85 8% 43% Majority
86 11% 34%  
87 10% 23%  
88 2% 13%  
89 3% 11% Last Result
90 4% 7%  
91 1.5% 3%  
92 0.5% 2%  
93 0.5% 1.3%  
94 0.6% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 0.6% 99.6%  
76 2% 98.9%  
77 3% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 5% 93%  
80 4% 88% Median
81 5% 84%  
82 9% 79%  
83 19% 69%  
84 12% 50%  
85 7% 38% Majority
86 10% 30%  
87 9% 20%  
88 3% 11% Last Result
89 3% 8%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.6% 2%  
93 0.4% 1.0%  
94 0.4% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.7%  
74 0.9% 99.2%  
75 1.0% 98%  
76 0.8% 97%  
77 4% 97%  
78 5% 93%  
79 6% 88%  
80 10% 82% Last Result
81 11% 72%  
82 6% 61% Median
83 11% 55%  
84 16% 44%  
85 10% 28% Majority
86 4% 18%  
87 4% 14%  
88 3% 10%  
89 2% 7%  
90 2% 4%  
91 1.5% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.7% 99.6%  
74 1.0% 98.9%  
75 0.9% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 6% 95%  
78 7% 89%  
79 4% 82% Last Result
80 9% 79%  
81 11% 69%  
82 8% 58% Median
83 17% 50%  
84 8% 34%  
85 9% 25% Majority
86 6% 16%  
87 2% 10%  
88 3% 8%  
89 2% 5%  
90 0.8% 3%  
91 1.4% 2%  
92 0.1% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.4%  
73 0.6% 99.1%  
74 2% 98%  
75 4% 96%  
76 3% 92%  
77 4% 89%  
78 5% 86% Median
79 12% 81%  
80 15% 69% Last Result
81 10% 54%  
82 8% 45%  
83 10% 37%  
84 8% 27%  
85 7% 19% Majority
86 6% 12%  
87 3% 6%  
88 1.5% 3%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.4% 0.7%  
91 0.1% 0.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 1.3% 99.1%  
70 1.2% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 6% 94% Last Result
73 11% 88%  
74 5% 77%  
75 10% 73%  
76 8% 63% Median
77 12% 55%  
78 15% 43%  
79 7% 28%  
80 7% 20%  
81 3% 14%  
82 5% 11%  
83 3% 6%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.8% 1.4% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.4% 99.5%  
64 0.6% 99.1%  
65 2% 98.5%  
66 2% 96%  
67 4% 95%  
68 10% 90%  
69 9% 81%  
70 8% 72%  
71 11% 63% Median
72 9% 52%  
73 16% 44%  
74 6% 28%  
75 6% 21%  
76 7% 15%  
77 3% 9% Last Result
78 2% 6%  
79 3% 4%  
80 0.7% 1.3%  
81 0.2% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.4%  
83 0.2% 0.3%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.4% 99.8%  
63 0.5% 99.3%  
64 1.3% 98.8%  
65 2% 98%  
66 3% 96%  
67 7% 93%  
68 8% 86%  
69 10% 78%  
70 8% 67%  
71 10% 60% Median
72 13% 49%  
73 12% 36%  
74 7% 24%  
75 6% 17%  
76 4% 11% Last Result
77 2% 7%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.4% 2%  
80 0.5% 1.0%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.4% 99.9%  
60 0.5% 99.5%  
61 1.1% 99.0%  
62 2% 98%  
63 2% 96%  
64 6% 94%  
65 6% 88%  
66 6% 82%  
67 11% 76%  
68 12% 65% Last Result
69 12% 54% Median
70 15% 41%  
71 6% 27%  
72 8% 21%  
73 3% 13%  
74 5% 10%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.1% 2%  
77 0.2% 0.9%  
78 0.6% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.3% 99.8%  
58 1.0% 99.4%  
59 2% 98%  
60 4% 97%  
61 6% 93%  
62 2% 87% Last Result
63 13% 85%  
64 8% 72% Median
65 8% 64%  
66 17% 56%  
67 14% 40%  
68 10% 26%  
69 3% 15%  
70 6% 12%  
71 2% 7%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.9% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.4%  
75 0.4% 0.8%  
76 0.2% 0.4%  
77 0.2% 0.2%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 0.7% 99.5%  
56 2% 98.7%  
57 2% 97%  
58 8% 95%  
59 5% 86%  
60 9% 82% Last Result
61 12% 73%  
62 10% 61% Median
63 11% 51%  
64 13% 41%  
65 12% 27%  
66 4% 15%  
67 5% 11%  
68 2% 6%  
69 2% 4%  
70 0.9% 2%  
71 0.8% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 0.7% 99.5%  
49 1.0% 98.8%  
50 2% 98%  
51 5% 95%  
52 4% 91%  
53 7% 87% Median
54 11% 79%  
55 7% 68%  
56 14% 62%  
57 9% 48%  
58 10% 38%  
59 8% 29%  
60 7% 21%  
61 4% 14% Last Result
62 4% 9%  
63 2% 6%  
64 1.4% 4%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.4% 0.8%  
68 0.3% 0.4%  
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.6% 99.7%  
20 2% 99.1%  
21 7% 98%  
22 3% 91%  
23 9% 88%  
24 8% 78% Median
25 12% 70%  
26 9% 58%  
27 8% 49%  
28 12% 41%  
29 3% 29%  
30 6% 26%  
31 9% 20%  
32 3% 10%  
33 4% 7%  
34 1.4% 3%  
35 0.8% 2% Last Result
36 0.6% 1.0%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.2%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations