Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 6–10 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.9% 25.0–28.9% 24.4–29.5% 24.0–30.0% 23.1–31.0%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.3% 23.4–27.3% 22.9–27.9% 22.5–28.4% 21.6–29.4%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.7% 11.3–14.3% 10.9–14.7% 10.6–15.1% 9.9–15.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.4% 10.1–13.0% 9.8–13.4% 9.4–13.8% 8.9–14.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.3–8.6% 6.0–9.0% 5.8–9.3% 5.3–10.0%
Venstre 4.4% 5.9% 5.0–7.1% 4.7–7.4% 4.5–7.7% 4.1–8.3%
Rødt 2.4% 3.9% 3.1–4.9% 2.9–5.2% 2.7–5.4% 2.4–5.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.1% 2.5–4.1% 2.3–4.3% 2.1–4.6% 1.9–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 1.9% 1.4–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.1% 1.0–3.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 44–52 43–53 43–54 41–55
Arbeiderpartiet 49 46 42–50 42–51 41–52 39–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 20–25 19–26 18–27 17–29
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 17–24 17–25 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 11–16 10–17 9–18
Venstre 8 11 9–13 8–13 8–14 7–15
Rødt 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 2 1–7 0–8 0–8 0–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.2% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.7%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 3% 98%  
44 5% 95%  
45 6% 89% Last Result
46 8% 83%  
47 12% 75%  
48 12% 63%  
49 10% 51% Median
50 14% 41%  
51 13% 26%  
52 6% 14%  
53 3% 7%  
54 3% 4%  
55 0.5% 1.0%  
56 0.2% 0.5%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.8%  
40 1.2% 99.5%  
41 3% 98%  
42 7% 95%  
43 11% 88%  
44 9% 77%  
45 17% 67%  
46 15% 51% Median
47 14% 36%  
48 8% 22%  
49 3% 14% Last Result
50 5% 11%  
51 3% 6%  
52 1.5% 3%  
53 0.6% 1.3%  
54 0.4% 0.7%  
55 0.1% 0.3%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.9% 99.9%  
18 2% 99.0%  
19 4% 97%  
20 6% 93%  
21 12% 87%  
22 17% 75%  
23 20% 58% Median
24 18% 39%  
25 11% 21%  
26 6% 10%  
27 2% 4% Last Result
28 1.2% 2%  
29 0.5% 0.7%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 0.8% 99.7%  
17 4% 98.8%  
18 8% 95%  
19 13% 86% Last Result
20 27% 74% Median
21 15% 47%  
22 13% 32%  
23 11% 19%  
24 4% 8%  
25 2% 4%  
26 0.9% 1.3%  
27 0.3% 0.5%  
28 0.1% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.9% 99.9%  
10 3% 99.0%  
11 11% 96% Last Result
12 13% 85%  
13 28% 73% Median
14 17% 44%  
15 14% 27%  
16 10% 13%  
17 2% 3%  
18 0.7% 1.0%  
19 0.2% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.3% 100%  
3 0.2% 99.7%  
4 0% 99.5%  
5 0% 99.5%  
6 0% 99.5%  
7 0.4% 99.5%  
8 6% 99.1% Last Result
9 10% 93%  
10 30% 83%  
11 21% 53% Median
12 19% 32%  
13 9% 13%  
14 2% 4%  
15 1.0% 1.2%  
16 0.2% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 6% 100% Last Result
2 55% 94% Median
3 0% 39%  
4 0% 39%  
5 0% 39%  
6 0% 39%  
7 12% 39%  
8 20% 27%  
9 5% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100%  
1 36% 92%  
2 15% 56% Median
3 31% 41%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 4% 10%  
8 5% 6% Last Result
9 0.8% 0.8%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 50% 100%  
1 48% 50% Last Result, Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 106 100% 100–109 99–111 97–112 96–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 84 49% 80–89 78–91 78–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 84 45% 80–89 78–91 77–92 75–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 85 55% 80–89 78–91 77–92 75–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 85 51% 80–89 78–91 77–91 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 24% 78–87 77–88 76–90 74–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 83 22% 77–86 76–88 74–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 80 10% 76–85 74–86 73–87 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 9% 75–84 74–86 73–87 70–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0% 67–75 65–77 64–78 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 69 0% 65–74 64–75 63–76 61–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 64–73 64–74 63–76 61–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 62–70 61–72 60–73 59–75
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 61 0% 57–66 56–67 54–68 53–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–63 54–64 53–66 51–67
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 34 0% 30–38 30–39 28–40 26–42

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.1% 99.9%  
94 0.1% 99.8%  
95 0.1% 99.7%  
96 0.6% 99.5%  
97 2% 98.9%  
98 2% 97%  
99 2% 95%  
100 5% 93%  
101 6% 88%  
102 6% 82%  
103 7% 76%  
104 7% 69%  
105 10% 62% Median
106 11% 52%  
107 21% 41% Last Result
108 4% 19%  
109 5% 15%  
110 4% 10%  
111 3% 6%  
112 1.5% 3%  
113 1.2% 2%  
114 0.3% 0.5%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 1.0% 99.8%  
77 1.2% 98.7%  
78 3% 98%  
79 2% 95%  
80 5% 93%  
81 5% 88% Last Result
82 10% 83% Median
83 13% 73%  
84 11% 60%  
85 15% 49% Majority
86 7% 34%  
87 5% 27%  
88 8% 22%  
89 4% 14%  
90 3% 9%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.6% 2%  
94 0.8% 1.1%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 1.1% 99.4%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94%  
80 7% 91% Last Result
81 9% 84% Median
82 10% 75%  
83 10% 66%  
84 11% 56%  
85 15% 45% Majority
86 4% 29%  
87 10% 25%  
88 5% 15%  
89 3% 10%  
90 2% 7%  
91 3% 6%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.4% 1.2%  
94 0.5% 0.8%  
95 0.1% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.5% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.2%  
77 2% 98.8%  
78 3% 97%  
79 2% 94%  
80 3% 93%  
81 5% 90%  
82 10% 85%  
83 4% 75%  
84 15% 70%  
85 11% 55% Majority
86 10% 44% Median
87 10% 34%  
88 9% 25%  
89 7% 16% Last Result
90 3% 9%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 1.1% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.8%  
75 0.8% 99.7%  
76 0.6% 98.9%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 3% 94%  
80 4% 91%  
81 8% 86%  
82 5% 78%  
83 7% 73%  
84 15% 66%  
85 11% 51% Median, Majority
86 13% 40%  
87 10% 27%  
88 5% 17% Last Result
89 5% 12%  
90 2% 7%  
91 3% 5%  
92 1.2% 2%  
93 1.0% 1.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 0.6% 99.3%  
76 2% 98.7%  
77 4% 97%  
78 5% 93%  
79 8% 88%  
80 4% 81%  
81 13% 77%  
82 10% 63% Median
83 10% 54%  
84 19% 43%  
85 5% 24% Majority
86 5% 19%  
87 5% 14%  
88 4% 9% Last Result
89 2% 5%  
90 1.3% 3%  
91 0.6% 1.3%  
92 0.4% 0.7%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.3% 99.6%  
74 2% 99.3%  
75 2% 97%  
76 3% 96%  
77 4% 93%  
78 5% 89%  
79 6% 85%  
80 11% 78% Last Result
81 8% 67%  
82 7% 59%  
83 20% 52% Median
84 10% 33%  
85 7% 22% Majority
86 8% 15%  
87 1.3% 8%  
88 2% 6%  
89 2% 4%  
90 1.1% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.5%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.4% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.5%  
72 0.3% 99.2%  
73 2% 98.9%  
74 3% 97%  
75 4% 94%  
76 7% 91%  
77 5% 84%  
78 10% 79%  
79 7% 69%  
80 13% 62% Last Result, Median
81 13% 50%  
82 9% 37%  
83 14% 28%  
84 4% 14%  
85 2% 10% Majority
86 4% 8%  
87 3% 5%  
88 2% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.5% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.4%  
72 0.9% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 6% 92%  
76 4% 86%  
77 7% 82%  
78 9% 74%  
79 14% 66% Last Result, Median
80 10% 52%  
81 8% 42%  
82 9% 34%  
83 14% 25%  
84 3% 12%  
85 3% 9% Majority
86 3% 6%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.5% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 1.2% 99.5%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 97%  
66 3% 94%  
67 4% 91%  
68 6% 87%  
69 8% 81%  
70 13% 73%  
71 10% 60%  
72 10% 50% Last Result, Median
73 18% 40%  
74 4% 23%  
75 10% 18%  
76 3% 8%  
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.7% 1.3%  
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.3%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.8%  
62 0.7% 99.4%  
63 3% 98.8%  
64 3% 96%  
65 5% 93%  
66 7% 88%  
67 10% 81%  
68 16% 71%  
69 8% 55% Median
70 12% 47%  
71 14% 35%  
72 4% 22%  
73 7% 18%  
74 5% 11%  
75 2% 5%  
76 2% 4%  
77 0.9% 2% Last Result
78 0.5% 1.1%  
79 0.4% 0.6%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 0.6% 99.6%  
62 0.9% 99.0%  
63 3% 98%  
64 7% 95%  
65 5% 89%  
66 7% 84%  
67 14% 77%  
68 13% 63% Median
69 11% 50%  
70 7% 39%  
71 13% 33%  
72 7% 20%  
73 6% 13%  
74 3% 7%  
75 1.0% 4%  
76 2% 3% Last Result
77 0.6% 1.3%  
78 0.3% 0.8%  
79 0.4% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.8% 99.6%  
60 1.4% 98.8%  
61 4% 97%  
62 4% 93%  
63 10% 89%  
64 8% 79%  
65 9% 71%  
66 20% 61% Median
67 8% 42%  
68 4% 33% Last Result
69 8% 29%  
70 12% 21%  
71 3% 9%  
72 2% 5%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.6% 2%  
75 0.7% 1.1%  
76 0.1% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0.1% 0.1%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.3% 99.6%  
54 2% 99.3%  
55 1.1% 97%  
56 2% 96%  
57 4% 94%  
58 8% 90%  
59 6% 82%  
60 10% 76%  
61 18% 66% Last Result
62 11% 48% Median
63 11% 38%  
64 7% 27%  
65 8% 19%  
66 4% 11%  
67 3% 7%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.9% 2%  
70 0.4% 0.9%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.2% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.8%  
52 0.7% 99.4%  
53 3% 98.8%  
54 4% 95%  
55 5% 91%  
56 7% 86%  
57 8% 79%  
58 8% 71%  
59 18% 62% Median
60 13% 44% Last Result
61 11% 31%  
62 6% 20%  
63 5% 14%  
64 4% 9%  
65 1.5% 5%  
66 2% 3%  
67 0.6% 1.1%  
68 0.1% 0.5%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0.1% 0.2%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
24 0.1% 100%  
25 0.1% 99.9%  
26 0.3% 99.8%  
27 1.0% 99.4%  
28 1.1% 98%  
29 2% 97%  
30 6% 95%  
31 12% 89%  
32 12% 76%  
33 7% 64% Median
34 23% 57%  
35 9% 34% Last Result
36 5% 25%  
37 9% 20%  
38 5% 11%  
39 3% 6%  
40 1.2% 3%  
41 0.7% 1.4%  
42 0.2% 0.7%  
43 0.4% 0.5%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations