Opinion Poll by Sentio, 7–13 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 28.2% 26.2–30.3% 25.6–30.9% 25.1–31.4% 24.2–32.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.6% 23.7–27.7% 23.2–28.3% 22.7–28.8% 21.8–29.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.3% 11.8–14.9% 11.4–15.4% 11.1–15.8% 10.4–16.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.9% 9.6–12.4% 9.2–12.8% 8.9–13.2% 8.3–14.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.7% 5.7–8.0% 5.4–8.3% 5.2–8.7% 4.7–9.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.0% 3.3–5.1% 3.0–5.4% 2.9–5.7% 2.5–6.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.9% 3.2–5.0% 2.9–5.2% 2.8–5.5% 2.4–6.1%
Rødt 2.4% 3.0% 2.4–4.0% 2.2–4.2% 2.0–4.5% 1.8–5.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.1–3.7% 2.0–3.9% 1.8–4.2% 1.6–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 52 48–55 46–56 44–59 44–60
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 44–51 44–52 42–52 41–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 21–26 20–27 20–27 19–28
Senterpartiet 19 20 19–23 18–24 17–24 16–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 11–14 10–16 10–16 8–17
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 3–9 1–9 1–10 1–11
Venstre 8 7 2–8 2–10 2–10 2–10
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–7 1–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–7

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.7%  
44 3% 99.7%  
45 1.2% 97% Last Result
46 2% 96%  
47 2% 93%  
48 8% 91%  
49 15% 84%  
50 4% 68%  
51 5% 64%  
52 16% 60% Median
53 6% 44%  
54 24% 38%  
55 8% 13%  
56 2% 5%  
57 0.5% 3%  
58 0.3% 3%  
59 0.3% 3%  
60 2% 2%  
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.7% 99.8%  
42 2% 99.1%  
43 2% 97%  
44 6% 96%  
45 5% 90%  
46 5% 85%  
47 40% 80% Median
48 7% 40%  
49 9% 32% Last Result
50 9% 24%  
51 6% 14%  
52 6% 8%  
53 0.1% 2%  
54 1.1% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.9%  
56 0.5% 0.5%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 2% 99.8%  
20 6% 98%  
21 8% 92%  
22 8% 84%  
23 34% 76% Median
24 13% 42%  
25 13% 29%  
26 8% 16%  
27 6% 8% Last Result
28 2% 2%  
29 0.3% 0.4%  
30 0.1% 0.1%  
31 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 1.4% 99.6%  
17 0.9% 98%  
18 3% 97%  
19 24% 94% Last Result
20 40% 70% Median
21 5% 30%  
22 9% 25%  
23 9% 16%  
24 5% 7%  
25 2% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
7 0% 100%  
8 0.5% 99.9%  
9 2% 99.4%  
10 5% 98%  
11 17% 93% Last Result
12 32% 76% Median
13 14% 44%  
14 24% 30%  
15 0.6% 6%  
16 4% 5%  
17 0.9% 1.0%  
18 0.1% 0.1%  
19 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 5% 99.9%  
2 3% 95%  
3 52% 92% Median
4 0% 40%  
5 0% 40%  
6 0% 40%  
7 2% 40%  
8 25% 38% Last Result
9 9% 13%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.8%  
12 0.1% 0.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 42% 99.8%  
3 1.5% 57%  
4 0% 56%  
5 0% 56%  
6 0% 56%  
7 32% 56% Median
8 14% 24% Last Result
9 2% 10%  
10 8% 8%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 54% 100% Last Result, Median
2 43% 46%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 1.2% 1.3%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 62% 97% Last Result, Median
2 34% 35%  
3 0.1% 1.2%  
4 0% 1.1%  
5 0% 1.0%  
6 0% 1.0%  
7 0.8% 1.0%  
8 0.1% 0.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 106 100% 102–108 101–111 100–113 96–115
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 87 65% 84–92 82–93 82–94 78–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 70% 83–90 82–91 82–94 78–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 86 57% 82–89 81–90 80–94 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 83 43% 80–87 79–88 75–89 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 30% 79–86 78–87 75–87 74–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 26% 79–86 77–86 74–86 74–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 7% 74–84 74–85 74–86 72–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 8% 78–84 76–85 74–85 73–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 74 0.1% 72–80 71–80 71–81 68–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 77 0.1% 69–79 69–79 68–81 67–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 73 0% 70–78 70–79 70–79 67–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 65–71 64–73 63–73 62–74
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 63 0% 57–67 54–68 54–70 54–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 58–65 55–65 53–65 53–68
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 30 0% 25–37 24–37 24–38 22–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0.1% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0.5% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.4%  
98 0.4% 99.2%  
99 1.1% 98.8%  
100 2% 98%  
101 5% 96%  
102 5% 91%  
103 1.2% 86%  
104 12% 85%  
105 14% 73% Median
106 13% 58%  
107 28% 46% Last Result
108 10% 18%  
109 2% 7%  
110 0.1% 5%  
111 0.6% 5%  
112 0.4% 5%  
113 3% 4%  
114 0.1% 2%  
115 1.4% 1.5%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.1% 99.5%  
80 0.5% 99.4%  
81 0.1% 98.9%  
82 5% 98.7%  
83 2% 94% Median
84 27% 92%  
85 3% 65% Majority
86 4% 62%  
87 12% 59%  
88 18% 46% Last Result
89 12% 29%  
90 0.4% 16%  
91 3% 16%  
92 3% 13%  
93 7% 10%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.2% 0.6%  
96 0.3% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.5% 99.8%  
79 1.2% 99.3%  
80 0.1% 98%  
81 0.3% 98%  
82 6% 98%  
83 14% 92%  
84 8% 79%  
85 10% 70% Majority
86 7% 61% Median
87 4% 54%  
88 5% 50%  
89 34% 45% Last Result
90 5% 11%  
91 2% 7%  
92 0.4% 5%  
93 0.3% 4%  
94 2% 4%  
95 1.4% 2%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.3%  
78 1.0% 99.0%  
79 0.3% 98%  
80 0.5% 98%  
81 6% 97%  
82 14% 91%  
83 7% 77%  
84 12% 69%  
85 5% 57% Median, Majority
86 3% 52%  
87 31% 49%  
88 7% 18% Last Result
89 5% 11%  
90 2% 6%  
91 0.4% 5%  
92 0.2% 4%  
93 1.2% 4%  
94 3% 3%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 3% 99.8%  
76 1.2% 97%  
77 0.2% 96%  
78 0.4% 96%  
79 2% 95%  
80 5% 94%  
81 7% 89% Last Result, Median
82 31% 82%  
83 3% 51%  
84 5% 48%  
85 12% 43% Majority
86 7% 31%  
87 14% 23%  
88 6% 9%  
89 0.5% 3%  
90 0.3% 2%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.3% 1.0%  
93 0.5% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 1.4% 99.8%  
75 2% 98%  
76 0.3% 96%  
77 0.4% 96%  
78 2% 95%  
79 5% 93%  
80 34% 89% Last Result, Median
81 5% 55%  
82 4% 50%  
83 7% 46%  
84 10% 39%  
85 8% 30% Majority
86 14% 21%  
87 6% 8%  
88 0.3% 2%  
89 0.1% 2%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.5% 0.7%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 3% 99.6%  
75 1.2% 97%  
76 0.4% 96%  
77 1.2% 95%  
78 3% 94%  
79 7% 92%  
80 10% 84% Last Result, Median
81 29% 75%  
82 4% 46%  
83 7% 42%  
84 9% 35%  
85 16% 26% Majority
86 8% 10%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.3% 1.4%  
89 0.2% 1.1%  
90 0.3% 0.9%  
91 0.5% 0.7%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.6%  
73 1.4% 99.3%  
74 8% 98%  
75 4% 90%  
76 4% 86%  
77 0.7% 82%  
78 5% 81%  
79 19% 76%  
80 9% 57% Last Result
81 10% 48%  
82 3% 38% Median
83 3% 35%  
84 25% 32%  
85 4% 7% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.2% 0.9%  
88 0.4% 0.8%  
89 0.1% 0.3%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 1.5% 99.7%  
74 2% 98%  
75 0.3% 96%  
76 0.8% 95%  
77 3% 95%  
78 7% 91%  
79 36% 84% Last Result, Median
80 4% 48%  
81 6% 45%  
82 4% 38%  
83 9% 34%  
84 17% 25%  
85 7% 8% Majority
86 0.2% 1.3%  
87 0.1% 1.1%  
88 0.4% 0.9%  
89 0.4% 0.6%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.5% 99.6%  
69 0.9% 99.1%  
70 0.3% 98%  
71 5% 98% Median
72 31% 93%  
73 10% 62%  
74 6% 52%  
75 15% 46%  
76 5% 31%  
77 10% 26% Last Result
78 3% 16%  
79 1.2% 13%  
80 9% 12%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.2%  
84 0.4% 0.5%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.1% 99.7%  
67 0.7% 99.6%  
68 4% 99.0%  
69 6% 95%  
70 0.6% 90%  
71 7% 89%  
72 11% 82% Last Result
73 7% 71%  
74 0.6% 64%  
75 2% 63% Median
76 7% 62%  
77 34% 55%  
78 6% 20%  
79 10% 15%  
80 1.3% 4%  
81 2% 3%  
82 0.1% 0.5%  
83 0.3% 0.4%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0% 99.9%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.1% 99.7%  
67 0.4% 99.5%  
68 0.9% 99.2%  
69 0.5% 98%  
70 29% 98% Median
71 7% 69%  
72 11% 62%  
73 6% 51%  
74 16% 45%  
75 5% 30%  
76 11% 24% Last Result
77 2% 14%  
78 3% 12%  
79 7% 8%  
80 0.7% 2%  
81 0.7% 1.1%  
82 0.3% 0.4%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.8%  
61 0.1% 99.7%  
62 1.5% 99.6%  
63 3% 98%  
64 5% 95%  
65 5% 91%  
66 9% 85%  
67 28% 76% Median
68 4% 48% Last Result
69 13% 45%  
70 9% 31%  
71 13% 22%  
72 1.3% 9%  
73 7% 8%  
74 0.5% 0.8%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.2% 0.2%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 0.2% 99.7%  
54 6% 99.5%  
55 0.8% 93%  
56 2% 93%  
57 11% 91%  
58 3% 80%  
59 6% 77%  
60 11% 71%  
61 5% 60% Last Result
62 4% 55% Median
63 2% 51%  
64 26% 49%  
65 2% 22%  
66 10% 20%  
67 0.8% 11%  
68 5% 10%  
69 1.2% 4%  
70 2% 3%  
71 0.7% 1.0%  
72 0% 0.3%  
73 0.2% 0.3%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.1% 99.8%  
53 2% 99.7%  
54 2% 97%  
55 0.2% 95%  
56 2% 95%  
57 3% 93%  
58 6% 91%  
59 34% 85% Median
60 11% 50% Last Result
61 15% 40%  
62 4% 25%  
63 7% 20%  
64 0.8% 13%  
65 10% 12%  
66 0.2% 2%  
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0.3% 0.7%  
69 0.4% 0.5%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.5% 99.8%  
23 0.3% 99.3%  
24 6% 99.0%  
25 6% 93%  
26 2% 87%  
27 1.3% 84%  
28 10% 83%  
29 12% 73%  
30 27% 62% Median
31 4% 35%  
32 2% 31%  
33 3% 29%  
34 3% 27%  
35 5% 24% Last Result
36 4% 19%  
37 11% 15%  
38 4% 4%  
39 0.1% 0.7%  
40 0.2% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.4%  
42 0.3% 0.3%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations