Opinion Poll by Norstat, 14–20 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.1% 25.3–29.0% 24.8–29.6% 24.4–30.0% 23.5–31.0%
Høyre 25.0% 26.1% 24.3–28.0% 23.8–28.5% 23.4–29.0% 22.6–29.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 16.1% 14.7–17.7% 14.3–18.2% 13.9–18.6% 13.3–19.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 9.3% 8.2–10.6% 7.9–11.0% 7.6–11.3% 7.1–12.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.5% 5.6–8.8% 5.1–9.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Rødt 2.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.9% 2.3–3.8% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.2% 1.8–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 50 47–53 45–53 44–54 43–57
Høyre 45 47 43–51 42–52 42–52 41–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 29 26–32 26–33 25–33 24–35
Senterpartiet 19 17 15–19 14–19 14–20 13–21
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 12–15 11–15 11–16 9–17
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 2–10
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–7 0–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
41 0% 100%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.8% 99.6%  
44 3% 98.8%  
45 3% 96%  
46 2% 94%  
47 3% 91%  
48 5% 88%  
49 25% 83% Last Result
50 16% 59% Median
51 17% 43%  
52 13% 26%  
53 8% 12%  
54 2% 4%  
55 0.6% 1.4%  
56 0.3% 0.9%  
57 0.2% 0.5%  
58 0.2% 0.3%  
59 0.2% 0.2%  
60 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.7%  
42 5% 99.2%  
43 6% 94%  
44 4% 89%  
45 6% 85% Last Result
46 19% 79%  
47 13% 60% Median
48 16% 47%  
49 4% 31%  
50 7% 28%  
51 12% 21%  
52 6% 8%  
53 2% 2%  
54 0.3% 0.9%  
55 0.3% 0.6%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0.1% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.4% 99.8%  
25 2% 99.4%  
26 8% 97%  
27 14% 89% Last Result
28 16% 75%  
29 19% 59% Median
30 12% 40%  
31 18% 28%  
32 5% 10%  
33 4% 6%  
34 1.1% 2%  
35 0.6% 0.7%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.2% 100%  
13 1.2% 99.8%  
14 5% 98.6%  
15 19% 93%  
16 17% 74%  
17 19% 57% Median
18 23% 38%  
19 11% 16% Last Result
20 3% 4%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.1% 100%  
9 0.6% 99.9%  
10 1.3% 99.4%  
11 5% 98% Last Result
12 14% 93%  
13 40% 79% Median
14 25% 39%  
15 12% 14%  
16 2% 3%  
17 0.7% 1.0%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 5% 99.9%  
2 10% 94%  
3 39% 85% Median
4 0% 45%  
5 0% 45%  
6 0% 45%  
7 16% 45%  
8 20% 29% Last Result
9 7% 9%  
10 1.3% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 64% 99.8% Median
3 0.9% 35%  
4 0% 34%  
5 0% 34%  
6 0% 34%  
7 15% 34%  
8 12% 20% Last Result
9 6% 8%  
10 1.2% 1.4%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 38% 100% Last Result
2 60% 62% Median
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0.2% 2%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.7% 100%  
1 55% 99.3% Last Result, Median
2 40% 45%  
3 2% 5%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 1.5% 3%  
8 1.1% 2%  
9 0.5% 0.5%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 102 100% 100–105 99–108 97–109 96–110
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 87 81% 83–91 83–93 82–93 80–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 86 78% 83–91 82–92 81–92 78–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 85 62% 82–89 81–91 80–92 78–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 84 38% 80–87 78–88 77–89 75–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 82 19% 78–85 76–86 76–87 73–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 82 19% 78–86 76–86 76–87 73–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 81 9% 76–84 76–85 75–86 72–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 3% 76–84 75–84 74–85 72–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 77 0.4% 72–81 71–82 71–83 69–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0.1% 70–77 69–78 67–80 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0% 68–76 67–76 66–77 63–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 64–70 62–70 61–71 59–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 64 0% 60–66 58–66 57–67 56–70
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 56 0% 51–61 51–62 51–64 47–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 25 0% 21–31 21–32 20–34 19–36

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.3% 99.8%  
96 0.9% 99.5%  
97 2% 98.6%  
98 1.1% 97% Median
99 2% 96%  
100 16% 94%  
101 15% 78%  
102 23% 63%  
103 14% 40%  
104 9% 26%  
105 8% 17%  
106 2% 9%  
107 2% 7% Last Result
108 2% 5%  
109 1.2% 3%  
110 2% 2%  
111 0.1% 0.3%  
112 0.1% 0.3%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0% 0.1%  
115 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.5% 99.5%  
81 1.0% 99.0%  
82 0.9% 98% Median
83 7% 97%  
84 9% 90%  
85 14% 81% Majority
86 11% 67%  
87 11% 56%  
88 12% 44%  
89 10% 33% Last Result
90 11% 23%  
91 4% 12%  
92 2% 8%  
93 4% 6%  
94 0.8% 2%  
95 0.7% 1.2%  
96 0.3% 0.6%  
97 0.1% 0.2%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.6% 99.4%  
80 1.0% 98.8%  
81 2% 98%  
82 3% 96%  
83 5% 93%  
84 11% 88% Median
85 9% 78% Majority
86 21% 69%  
87 10% 48%  
88 13% 38% Last Result
89 10% 25%  
90 3% 16%  
91 8% 13%  
92 3% 5%  
93 0.8% 2%  
94 0.8% 1.3%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.4% 99.7%  
79 1.0% 99.3%  
80 2% 98%  
81 5% 97% Median
82 11% 92%  
83 5% 81%  
84 14% 76%  
85 15% 62% Majority
86 6% 47%  
87 15% 41%  
88 13% 26% Last Result
89 3% 13%  
90 4% 10%  
91 2% 6%  
92 2% 4%  
93 0.3% 1.1%  
94 0.4% 0.8%  
95 0.2% 0.3%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.7%  
76 0.3% 99.2%  
77 2% 98.9%  
78 2% 96%  
79 4% 94%  
80 3% 90%  
81 13% 87% Last Result
82 15% 74%  
83 6% 59% Median
84 15% 53%  
85 14% 38% Majority
86 5% 24%  
87 11% 19%  
88 5% 8%  
89 2% 3%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.4% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.6% 99.5%  
75 1.0% 98.8%  
76 4% 98%  
77 3% 94%  
78 5% 92%  
79 13% 86%  
80 6% 73% Last Result
81 13% 67% Median
82 10% 54%  
83 15% 44%  
84 10% 29%  
85 11% 19% Majority
86 5% 8%  
87 1.4% 3%  
88 1.3% 2%  
89 0.3% 0.8%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 0.7% 99.4%  
75 0.8% 98.8%  
76 4% 98%  
77 2% 94%  
78 4% 92%  
79 11% 88%  
80 10% 77% Last Result
81 12% 67%  
82 11% 56% Median
83 11% 44%  
84 14% 33%  
85 9% 19% Majority
86 7% 10%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.5% 1.0%  
90 0.3% 0.5%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.7%  
73 0.6% 99.5%  
74 0.9% 98.9%  
75 3% 98%  
76 7% 95%  
77 4% 88%  
78 9% 84% Median
79 13% 74%  
80 10% 62% Last Result
81 11% 51%  
82 15% 40%  
83 7% 26%  
84 10% 19%  
85 5% 9% Majority
86 3% 4%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.2%  
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.6% 99.6%  
73 0.9% 99.1%  
74 2% 98%  
75 4% 96%  
76 3% 92%  
77 12% 89%  
78 8% 77%  
79 7% 69% Last Result
80 17% 62% Median
81 7% 45%  
82 14% 38%  
83 14% 25%  
84 7% 10%  
85 1.1% 3% Majority
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.6% 1.1%  
88 0.3% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.6%  
70 2% 99.1%  
71 5% 98%  
72 4% 93% Last Result
73 5% 89%  
74 17% 84%  
75 8% 67%  
76 8% 59% Median
77 14% 51%  
78 10% 37%  
79 3% 27%  
80 11% 24%  
81 4% 13%  
82 6% 8%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.6% 1.0%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.6% 99.7%  
66 0.7% 99.1%  
67 1.1% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 3% 96%  
70 9% 93%  
71 5% 85% Median
72 14% 80%  
73 22% 66%  
74 11% 44%  
75 13% 33%  
76 6% 20%  
77 7% 15% Last Result
78 4% 7%  
79 1.1% 4%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.5% 1.2%  
82 0.2% 0.7%  
83 0.3% 0.6%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.8% 99.4%  
65 0.9% 98.6%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 6% 94%  
69 7% 88%  
70 6% 81% Median
71 20% 75%  
72 17% 55%  
73 17% 37%  
74 5% 21%  
75 3% 16%  
76 8% 13% Last Result
77 2% 5%  
78 0.8% 2%  
79 0.8% 1.2%  
80 0.2% 0.4%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.6% 99.7%  
60 0.9% 99.1%  
61 3% 98%  
62 3% 96%  
63 2% 93%  
64 15% 90%  
65 7% 75%  
66 14% 68%  
67 5% 54% Median
68 13% 49% Last Result
69 21% 36%  
70 12% 15%  
71 0.9% 3%  
72 0.7% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.3%  
74 0.3% 0.7%  
75 0.1% 0.4%  
76 0.2% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.1% 99.8%  
55 0.1% 99.7%  
56 0.4% 99.6%  
57 3% 99.1%  
58 3% 96%  
59 3% 93%  
60 3% 91% Last Result
61 3% 88%  
62 17% 85%  
63 16% 68% Median
64 18% 52%  
65 22% 34%  
66 9% 12%  
67 0.7% 3%  
68 0.3% 2%  
69 0.5% 2%  
70 0.8% 1.1%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.1% 100%  
47 0.6% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.4%  
49 0.4% 98.7%  
50 0.6% 98%  
51 12% 98%  
52 1.5% 86% Median
53 5% 84%  
54 5% 79%  
55 6% 74%  
56 25% 68%  
57 5% 42%  
58 8% 38%  
59 10% 29%  
60 4% 19%  
61 9% 15% Last Result
62 2% 6%  
63 1.3% 4%  
64 2% 3%  
65 0.6% 1.2%  
66 0.3% 0.7%  
67 0.1% 0.3%  
68 0.2% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 1.0% 99.7%  
20 3% 98.7%  
21 7% 96%  
22 11% 89% Median
23 9% 78%  
24 12% 69%  
25 7% 57%  
26 6% 50%  
27 7% 44%  
28 10% 36%  
29 12% 26%  
30 3% 14%  
31 5% 11%  
32 1.3% 6%  
33 0.8% 5%  
34 2% 4%  
35 0.7% 1.3% Last Result
36 0.4% 0.6%  
37 0.1% 0.2%  
38 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations