Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 20–22 November 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 27.9% 26.0–29.8% 25.5–30.4% 25.1–30.9% 24.2–31.8%
Høyre 25.0% 25.1% 23.3–27.0% 22.8–27.5% 22.4–28.0% 21.5–28.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.9% 14.4–17.5% 14.0–18.0% 13.7–18.4% 13.0–19.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 8.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.2–10.3% 7.0–10.6% 6.5–11.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.4–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.8–7.7%
Venstre 4.4% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.4% 3.2–6.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.5–5.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.3% 2.5–5.7%
Rødt 2.4% 2.8% 2.2–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Arbeiderpartiet 49 50 47–55 46–55 45–56 43–59
Høyre 45 45 42–48 41–49 40–51 39–53
Fremskrittspartiet 27 29 26–31 25–32 25–33 24–35
Senterpartiet 19 15 14–18 13–18 12–19 11–20
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 8–11 8–12 7–13 2–14
Venstre 8 9 3–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–7 1–8

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.7% 99.9%  
44 0.5% 99.2%  
45 3% 98.7%  
46 3% 96%  
47 5% 93%  
48 12% 87%  
49 17% 75% Last Result
50 13% 59% Median
51 15% 46%  
52 8% 31%  
53 8% 23%  
54 5% 15%  
55 5% 10%  
56 3% 5%  
57 1.4% 2%  
58 0.2% 0.7%  
59 0.4% 0.5%  
60 0.1% 0.1%  
61 0% 0.1%  
62 0% 0%  

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
37 0.1% 100%  
38 0.3% 99.9%  
39 1.2% 99.5%  
40 3% 98%  
41 5% 95%  
42 10% 91%  
43 7% 81%  
44 14% 74%  
45 14% 60% Last Result, Median
46 18% 47%  
47 9% 28%  
48 10% 19%  
49 5% 9%  
50 2% 5%  
51 1.0% 3%  
52 1.2% 2%  
53 0.4% 0.6%  
54 0.2% 0.2%  
55 0% 0.1%  
56 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 0.2% 99.8%  
24 0.7% 99.6%  
25 6% 98.9%  
26 10% 93%  
27 18% 82% Last Result
28 14% 65%  
29 15% 51% Median
30 18% 36%  
31 9% 18%  
32 5% 9%  
33 2% 4%  
34 0.6% 2%  
35 1.0% 1.2%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0.1% 0.1%  
38 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 0.8% 99.9%  
12 3% 99.1%  
13 4% 96%  
14 15% 92%  
15 40% 77% Median
16 15% 38%  
17 9% 23%  
18 9% 14%  
19 3% 5% Last Result
20 1.2% 1.4%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 1.2% 99.5%  
3 0% 98%  
4 0% 98%  
5 0% 98%  
6 0% 98%  
7 2% 98%  
8 12% 97%  
9 35% 85%  
10 19% 50% Median
11 21% 31% Last Result
12 7% 10%  
13 3% 3%  
14 0.5% 0.7%  
15 0.1% 0.2%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 9% 100%  
3 1.4% 91%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 4% 90%  
8 33% 86% Last Result
9 25% 53% Median
10 21% 28%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.3%  
14 0% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 7% 100% Last Result
2 44% 93% Median
3 0.6% 49%  
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0.1% 49%  
7 13% 49%  
8 28% 36%  
9 6% 8%  
10 1.5% 2%  
11 0.4% 0.5%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 15% 99.9%  
2 6% 85%  
3 31% 79% Median
4 0% 48%  
5 0% 48%  
6 0.1% 48%  
7 13% 48%  
8 28% 35% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 1.0% 1.1%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 53% 100% Last Result, Median
2 44% 47%  
3 0% 3%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0.1% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0.7% 0.8%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 102 100% 98–107 96–108 94–109 92–111
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 92 97% 87–95 85–97 84–98 82–101
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 85 55% 80–90 80–92 79–94 76–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 86 79% 82–92 80–93 79–94 76–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 83 21% 77–87 76–89 75–90 73–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 83 18% 77–87 76–88 74–89 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 14% 75–85 75–87 73–89 71–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 77 3% 74–82 72–84 71–85 68–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.5% 72–79 71–82 70–83 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 75 0.7% 71–81 69–83 68–83 66–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 74 0.1% 69–78 68–79 66–81 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0% 66–75 65–76 64–78 61–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 67 0% 62–71 61–73 60–75 58–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 66 0% 62–71 61–72 60–73 59–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 56–64 56–66 55–67 51–69
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 58 0% 53–63 52–64 51–66 48–67
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 29 0% 25–33 22–34 22–35 18–37

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
89 0% 100%  
90 0% 99.9%  
91 0.2% 99.9%  
92 0.3% 99.7%  
93 1.2% 99.4%  
94 0.8% 98%  
95 1.4% 97%  
96 2% 96%  
97 2% 94%  
98 4% 92%  
99 10% 88%  
100 7% 79%  
101 15% 72% Median
102 10% 57%  
103 10% 46%  
104 4% 36%  
105 6% 32%  
106 6% 26%  
107 12% 20% Last Result
108 3% 7%  
109 3% 5%  
110 1.2% 2%  
111 0.3% 0.7%  
112 0.1% 0.4%  
113 0.1% 0.2%  
114 0.1% 0.1%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.9%  
81 0.1% 99.8%  
82 0.4% 99.7%  
83 0.3% 99.3%  
84 2% 99.0%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 2% 95%  
87 3% 93%  
88 8% 90% Median
89 4% 82% Last Result
90 13% 78%  
91 4% 65%  
92 12% 61%  
93 8% 49%  
94 26% 41%  
95 6% 15%  
96 3% 9%  
97 2% 5%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.8% 2%  
100 0.4% 1.0%  
101 0.4% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.7%  
77 0.5% 99.2%  
78 0.9% 98.6%  
79 2% 98%  
80 6% 96% Median
81 3% 90%  
82 5% 87%  
83 14% 82%  
84 13% 68%  
85 14% 55% Majority
86 5% 42%  
87 11% 36%  
88 4% 25% Last Result
89 4% 21%  
90 8% 17%  
91 3% 9%  
92 3% 6%  
93 0.8% 3%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.8% 1.1%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.8% 99.9%  
77 0.5% 99.1%  
78 0.5% 98.6%  
79 1.3% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 2% 95%  
82 4% 93%  
83 5% 89%  
84 4% 83%  
85 13% 79% Majority
86 18% 66% Median
87 5% 48%  
88 11% 43% Last Result
89 5% 32%  
90 6% 27%  
91 2% 21%  
92 14% 19%  
93 2% 5%  
94 1.1% 3%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.1%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.7% 99.7%  
74 1.2% 98.9%  
75 1.1% 98%  
76 2% 97%  
77 14% 95%  
78 2% 81% Median
79 6% 79%  
80 5% 73%  
81 11% 68% Last Result
82 5% 57%  
83 18% 52%  
84 13% 34%  
85 4% 21% Majority
86 5% 17%  
87 4% 11%  
88 2% 7%  
89 2% 5%  
90 1.3% 3%  
91 0.5% 2%  
92 0.5% 1.4%  
93 0.8% 0.9%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 1.1% 99.6%  
74 2% 98%  
75 0.8% 97%  
76 4% 96%  
77 4% 92%  
78 8% 89%  
79 5% 81%  
80 9% 76% Last Result
81 6% 67%  
82 6% 61%  
83 18% 55% Median
84 19% 37%  
85 6% 18% Majority
86 2% 13%  
87 4% 10%  
88 3% 6%  
89 1.3% 3%  
90 0.5% 1.5%  
91 0.5% 0.9%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 1.2% 99.5%  
73 2% 98%  
74 1.3% 97%  
75 13% 95%  
76 3% 82%  
77 6% 79% Median
78 3% 74%  
79 11% 70%  
80 6% 59% Last Result
81 10% 54%  
82 14% 44%  
83 12% 29%  
84 4% 17%  
85 5% 14% Majority
86 3% 9%  
87 2% 6%  
88 1.0% 4%  
89 1.3% 3%  
90 0.4% 1.5%  
91 0.3% 1.0%  
92 0.6% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.4%  
70 0.8% 99.0%  
71 2% 98%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 95%  
74 6% 91%  
75 26% 85%  
76 8% 59% Median
77 12% 51%  
78 4% 39%  
79 13% 35%  
80 4% 22% Last Result
81 8% 18%  
82 3% 10%  
83 2% 7%  
84 2% 5%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.3% 1.0%  
87 0.4% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 0.6% 99.3%  
69 0.9% 98.7%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 4% 93%  
73 17% 89%  
74 16% 72%  
75 11% 56% Median
76 9% 45%  
77 11% 36%  
78 8% 26%  
79 9% 18% Last Result
80 3% 10%  
81 2% 7%  
82 2% 5%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.9% 1.5%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.3% 99.7%  
67 1.1% 99.4%  
68 1.0% 98%  
69 2% 97%  
70 2% 95% Median
71 4% 93%  
72 6% 88%  
73 4% 82%  
74 19% 78%  
75 9% 59%  
76 18% 50%  
77 5% 32% Last Result
78 5% 27%  
79 4% 22%  
80 4% 18%  
81 5% 14%  
82 3% 8%  
83 3% 5%  
84 2% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.7% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 2% 99.6%  
67 1.2% 97%  
68 2% 96%  
69 6% 94%  
70 6% 88%  
71 10% 82%  
72 6% 73% Last Result
73 6% 66%  
74 15% 60% Median
75 15% 45%  
76 14% 29%  
77 5% 15%  
78 3% 10%  
79 3% 7%  
80 1.5% 4%  
81 1.1% 3%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.6% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.3%  
63 0.8% 99.0%  
64 2% 98%  
65 2% 96%  
66 8% 94%  
67 6% 85%  
68 11% 79% Median
69 5% 68%  
70 7% 63%  
71 5% 56%  
72 15% 51%  
73 6% 35%  
74 15% 29%  
75 5% 14%  
76 5% 10% Last Result
77 2% 5%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.8% 2%  
80 0.5% 0.9%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.1% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.6%  
59 1.2% 99.3%  
60 3% 98%  
61 3% 95%  
62 12% 93% Last Result
63 6% 80% Median
64 6% 74%  
65 5% 68%  
66 10% 64%  
67 10% 54%  
68 15% 43%  
69 7% 28%  
70 10% 21%  
71 4% 12%  
72 2% 8%  
73 2% 6%  
74 1.4% 4%  
75 0.8% 3%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.3% 0.6%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.2% 100%  
58 0.2% 99.8%  
59 0.9% 99.6%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 3% 97%  
62 4% 93%  
63 10% 90%  
64 15% 79%  
65 14% 64% Median
66 14% 50%  
67 12% 36%  
68 5% 25% Last Result
69 6% 19%  
70 3% 13%  
71 5% 11%  
72 3% 5%  
73 2% 3%  
74 0.5% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.5%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.4% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.4%  
53 0.4% 99.0%  
54 0.8% 98.6%  
55 3% 98%  
56 6% 95%  
57 5% 90%  
58 17% 84%  
59 17% 68%  
60 8% 51% Last Result, Median
61 9% 43%  
62 13% 33%  
63 9% 21%  
64 4% 11%  
65 2% 7%  
66 2% 5%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.2% 0.9%  
69 0.4% 0.7%  
70 0.3% 0.3%  
71 0% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0% 99.9%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.8% 99.8%  
49 0.3% 98.9%  
50 0.7% 98.6%  
51 2% 98%  
52 2% 95%  
53 4% 93%  
54 3% 90%  
55 10% 87%  
56 8% 76%  
57 5% 69% Median
58 15% 64%  
59 7% 49%  
60 9% 42%  
61 10% 33% Last Result
62 13% 23%  
63 4% 10%  
64 2% 7%  
65 1.4% 5%  
66 2% 4%  
67 1.3% 2%  
68 0.1% 0.3%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.2% 100%  
17 0.2% 99.8%  
18 0.4% 99.6%  
19 0.1% 99.2%  
20 0.3% 99.1%  
21 1.3% 98.8%  
22 3% 98%  
23 2% 94%  
24 1.2% 92%  
25 6% 91%  
26 14% 85%  
27 14% 70% Median
28 5% 57%  
29 4% 52%  
30 8% 48%  
31 18% 40%  
32 9% 22%  
33 5% 13%  
34 3% 8%  
35 3% 5% Last Result
36 0.9% 2%  
37 0.5% 0.6%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations