Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 5–6 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.5% 25.5–29.5% 25.0–30.1% 24.5–30.6% 23.6–31.6%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.7% 24.8–28.8% 24.3–29.4% 23.8–29.9% 23.0–30.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.6% 12.2–15.3% 11.8–15.7% 11.4–16.1% 10.8–16.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.2% 9.0–11.7% 8.7–12.1% 8.4–12.5% 7.8–13.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.3% 5.7–8.6% 5.4–8.9% 5.0–9.6%
Venstre 4.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.8% 3.6–6.1% 3.5–6.4% 3.1–6.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–5.0% 2.6–5.3% 2.3–5.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.3% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.5% 2.2–4.7% 2.0–5.2%
Rødt 2.4% 2.0% 1.5–2.8% 1.4–3.1% 1.3–3.3% 1.1–3.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 45–53 44–54 44–55 42–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 45–52 43–53 43–54 41–56
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–28 21–29 20–29 19–30
Senterpartiet 19 18 16–21 15–23 15–23 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–15 10–16 9–17
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 0–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Rødt 1 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.2% 99.8%  
42 0.7% 99.6%  
43 1.1% 98.9%  
44 4% 98%  
45 8% 94% Last Result
46 6% 86%  
47 12% 81%  
48 10% 69%  
49 11% 58% Median
50 9% 48%  
51 14% 39%  
52 8% 25%  
53 8% 16%  
54 6% 9%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.6% 1.2%  
57 0.3% 0.7%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.2%  
60 0% 0.1%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.6% 99.8%  
42 1.0% 99.3%  
43 3% 98%  
44 3% 95%  
45 7% 91%  
46 10% 84%  
47 12% 74%  
48 18% 62% Median
49 17% 45% Last Result
50 9% 27%  
51 7% 18%  
52 4% 11%  
53 3% 7%  
54 2% 4%  
55 1.2% 2%  
56 0.3% 0.6%  
57 0.2% 0.3%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.2% 99.9%  
19 0.8% 99.7%  
20 2% 98.9%  
21 4% 97%  
22 15% 93%  
23 13% 78%  
24 8% 65%  
25 19% 57% Median
26 19% 37%  
27 7% 18% Last Result
28 4% 11%  
29 4% 6%  
30 2% 2%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 0.2% 99.9%  
14 1.3% 99.7%  
15 5% 98%  
16 8% 94%  
17 14% 86%  
18 24% 73% Median
19 19% 49% Last Result
20 14% 30%  
21 8% 16%  
22 3% 8%  
23 5% 6%  
24 0.8% 1.0%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0.1% 0.1%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 6% 98%  
11 15% 92% Last Result
12 21% 77%  
13 20% 56% Median
14 21% 35%  
15 11% 15%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.8% 1.1%  
18 0.3% 0.3%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 12% 100%  
3 4% 88%  
4 0% 84%  
5 0% 84%  
6 0% 84%  
7 9% 84%  
8 30% 75% Last Result, Median
9 24% 46%  
10 13% 21%  
11 6% 8%  
12 0.6% 1.4%  
13 0.7% 0.7%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 13% 99.2%  
2 7% 87%  
3 47% 80% Median
4 0% 33%  
5 0% 33%  
6 0% 33%  
7 10% 33%  
8 16% 23% Last Result
9 6% 7%  
10 1.0% 1.3%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.3% 100%  
1 38% 99.7% Last Result
2 47% 62% Median
3 2% 15%  
4 0% 13%  
5 0% 13%  
6 0% 13%  
7 3% 13%  
8 8% 10%  
9 1.2% 2%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 88% 96% Last Result, Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0.1%  
4 0% 0.1%  
5 0% 0.1%  
6 0% 0.1%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 104 100% 100–108 98–110 97–111 94–113
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 83% 83–93 82–94 82–95 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 86 71% 81–91 80–93 80–94 77–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 86 66% 81–91 80–91 79–93 76–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 83 34% 78–88 78–89 76–90 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 82 24% 77–87 77–88 75–89 73–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 82 19% 77–87 75–88 74–88 71–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 17% 76–86 75–87 74–87 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 10% 75–85 74–86 73–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0.3% 69–78 68–80 67–82 65–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 74 0.2% 69–79 68–80 67–81 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 67–75 65–77 65–78 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 62–71 61–72 60–73 59–75
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 61 0% 57–66 55–68 55–69 52–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 61 0% 57–65 56–66 55–67 53–69
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 31 0% 26–35 24–36 24–37 21–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0.2% 99.9%  
94 0.5% 99.7%  
95 0.3% 99.3%  
96 0.8% 99.0%  
97 0.9% 98%  
98 3% 97%  
99 1.2% 95%  
100 5% 93%  
101 7% 88%  
102 4% 82%  
103 13% 78% Median
104 16% 64%  
105 8% 49%  
106 9% 41%  
107 12% 32% Last Result
108 11% 20%  
109 4% 10%  
110 2% 6%  
111 2% 3%  
112 0.8% 2%  
113 0.5% 0.8%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.6%  
81 0.8% 99.3%  
82 4% 98.6%  
83 5% 95%  
84 6% 89%  
85 4% 83% Majority
86 8% 79%  
87 9% 70% Median
88 17% 61%  
89 8% 44% Last Result
90 4% 36%  
91 11% 32%  
92 7% 21%  
93 7% 14%  
94 3% 7%  
95 2% 4%  
96 1.1% 2%  
97 0.5% 1.4%  
98 0.6% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.7%  
78 0.5% 99.3%  
79 0.6% 98.8%  
80 5% 98%  
81 4% 93%  
82 4% 89%  
83 5% 85%  
84 9% 80% Median
85 17% 71% Majority
86 10% 54%  
87 9% 44%  
88 8% 35% Last Result
89 6% 27%  
90 7% 21%  
91 6% 13%  
92 2% 7%  
93 2% 6%  
94 1.2% 4%  
95 0.6% 2%  
96 1.2% 2%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.4% 99.5%  
77 0.3% 99.2%  
78 0.9% 98.9%  
79 1.4% 98%  
80 4% 97%  
81 7% 92%  
82 5% 86%  
83 7% 81%  
84 8% 73%  
85 6% 66% Median, Majority
86 18% 60%  
87 9% 42%  
88 4% 33% Last Result
89 9% 28%  
90 6% 20%  
91 8% 13%  
92 1.1% 5%  
93 2% 4%  
94 1.1% 2%  
95 0.4% 0.8%  
96 0.2% 0.4%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.6%  
75 1.1% 99.2%  
76 2% 98%  
77 1.1% 96%  
78 8% 95%  
79 6% 87%  
80 9% 80%  
81 4% 72% Last Result
82 9% 67% Median
83 18% 58%  
84 6% 40%  
85 8% 34% Majority
86 7% 27%  
87 5% 19%  
88 7% 14%  
89 4% 8%  
90 1.4% 3%  
91 0.9% 2%  
92 0.3% 1.1%  
93 0.4% 0.8%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.4% 99.6%  
74 1.3% 99.3%  
75 2% 98%  
76 1.1% 96%  
77 9% 95%  
78 6% 86%  
79 9% 81%  
80 5% 71% Last Result
81 9% 67% Median
82 17% 58%  
83 7% 41%  
84 9% 34%  
85 5% 24% Majority
86 5% 19%  
87 6% 14%  
88 5% 8%  
89 1.3% 3%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.2% 1.1%  
92 0.3% 0.9%  
93 0.4% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.4% 99.9%  
72 1.0% 99.5%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 2% 96%  
76 2% 94%  
77 6% 92%  
78 7% 86%  
79 6% 79%  
80 10% 73% Last Result
81 7% 63%  
82 9% 56% Median
83 19% 47%  
84 9% 28%  
85 5% 19% Majority
86 3% 14%  
87 5% 11%  
88 5% 7%  
89 0.6% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.2%  
91 0.3% 0.7%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.6% 99.8%  
72 0.5% 99.2%  
73 1.1% 98.6%  
74 2% 98%  
75 3% 96%  
76 7% 93%  
77 7% 86%  
78 11% 79%  
79 4% 68%  
80 8% 64% Last Result, Median
81 17% 56%  
82 9% 39%  
83 8% 30%  
84 4% 21%  
85 6% 17% Majority
86 5% 11%  
87 4% 5%  
88 0.8% 1.4%  
89 0.2% 0.7%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.6% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.2%  
72 1.0% 98.6%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 96%  
75 7% 93%  
76 7% 86%  
77 11% 79%  
78 5% 68%  
79 8% 64% Last Result, Median
80 17% 56%  
81 8% 38%  
82 9% 30%  
83 6% 21%  
84 4% 15%  
85 5% 10% Majority
86 4% 5%  
87 0.6% 1.3%  
88 0.2% 0.6%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.6%  
66 0.7% 99.2%  
67 3% 98.5%  
68 2% 96%  
69 6% 94%  
70 7% 87%  
71 15% 81% Median
72 9% 66%  
73 7% 57%  
74 13% 50%  
75 8% 37%  
76 11% 29%  
77 5% 18% Last Result
78 4% 14%  
79 2% 9%  
80 3% 7%  
81 2% 5%  
82 2% 3%  
83 0.7% 1.3%  
84 0.3% 0.7%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.2% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0% 99.8%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.4%  
66 0.6% 99.0%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 6% 95%  
70 8% 89%  
71 4% 81%  
72 9% 76% Last Result
73 5% 67%  
74 23% 62% Median
75 11% 40%  
76 9% 29%  
77 5% 20%  
78 5% 16%  
79 4% 10%  
80 3% 6%  
81 0.7% 3%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.0%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.2% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.7%  
63 0.4% 99.5%  
64 0.9% 99.0%  
65 3% 98%  
66 3% 95%  
67 4% 92%  
68 10% 88%  
69 10% 77% Median
70 13% 67%  
71 9% 53%  
72 11% 45%  
73 10% 34%  
74 8% 24%  
75 6% 15%  
76 3% 9% Last Result
77 1.1% 6%  
78 2% 5%  
79 1.1% 2%  
80 0.9% 1.3%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.8% 99.5%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 3% 97%  
62 4% 93%  
63 4% 89%  
64 7% 86%  
65 12% 78%  
66 14% 67% Median
67 15% 53%  
68 9% 39% Last Result
69 9% 29%  
70 6% 21%  
71 5% 14%  
72 5% 9%  
73 2% 4%  
74 0.3% 2%  
75 1.2% 1.5%  
76 0.1% 0.3%  
77 0.1% 0.2%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0% 100%  
49 0.1% 99.9%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.2% 99.6%  
53 0.7% 99.4%  
54 1.1% 98.7%  
55 4% 98%  
56 3% 94%  
57 9% 91%  
58 7% 82%  
59 10% 75%  
60 10% 64% Median
61 7% 54% Last Result
62 10% 47%  
63 5% 38%  
64 11% 33%  
65 7% 22%  
66 5% 15%  
67 4% 10%  
68 3% 6%  
69 1.4% 3%  
70 0.7% 2%  
71 0.6% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.3% 99.9%  
53 0.8% 99.6%  
54 0.9% 98.8%  
55 1.4% 98%  
56 3% 96%  
57 5% 93%  
58 7% 88%  
59 16% 81%  
60 7% 65% Last Result
61 9% 57% Median
62 18% 48%  
63 12% 30%  
64 7% 18%  
65 4% 11%  
66 4% 7%  
67 2% 3%  
68 0.8% 2%  
69 0.4% 0.8%  
70 0.2% 0.3%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0% 100%  
19 0% 99.9%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 0.5% 99.5%  
22 0.2% 99.0%  
23 1.0% 98.8%  
24 3% 98%  
25 3% 95%  
26 4% 92%  
27 5% 88%  
28 5% 83%  
29 11% 79% Median
30 17% 68%  
31 11% 51%  
32 11% 41%  
33 12% 30%  
34 7% 18%  
35 4% 11% Last Result
36 2% 7%  
37 2% 4%  
38 0.7% 2%  
39 0.6% 1.5%  
40 0.8% 0.9%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations