Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 4–8 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.6% 24.6–28.7% 24.1–29.3% 23.6–29.8% 22.7–30.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.1% 24.1–28.2% 23.6–28.8% 23.1–29.3% 22.2–30.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.8% 13.3–16.6% 12.9–17.1% 12.5–17.5% 11.8–18.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 9.7% 8.4–11.2% 8.1–11.6% 7.8–12.0% 7.2–12.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.8% 5.8–8.2% 5.5–8.5% 5.3–8.8% 4.8–9.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.3% 3.5–5.3% 3.2–5.7% 3.0–5.9% 2.7–6.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.9–5.8% 2.6–6.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.5%
Rødt 2.4% 2.8% 2.2–3.8% 2.0–4.0% 1.9–4.3% 1.6–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 47 44–52 43–53 42–55 40–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 43–51 42–52 41–54 40–56
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 24–30 23–31 22–32 21–34
Senterpartiet 19 17 15–20 14–21 14–22 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 10–15 10–15 9–16 9–17
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 1–10 1–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–6 1–8 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.3% 99.9%  
40 0.5% 99.6%  
41 1.0% 99.1%  
42 3% 98%  
43 3% 95%  
44 7% 92%  
45 20% 85% Last Result
46 5% 66%  
47 11% 61% Median
48 11% 50%  
49 7% 38%  
50 11% 32%  
51 10% 20%  
52 4% 11%  
53 2% 6%  
54 0.9% 4%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 0.9%  
57 0.3% 0.4%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 3% 97%  
43 5% 94%  
44 10% 89%  
45 16% 79%  
46 10% 63%  
47 18% 53% Median
48 11% 36%  
49 5% 24% Last Result
50 7% 19%  
51 3% 12%  
52 4% 9%  
53 2% 5%  
54 1.1% 3%  
55 1.0% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.2%  
58 0% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 1.2% 99.6%  
22 3% 98%  
23 3% 95%  
24 8% 92%  
25 13% 84%  
26 15% 71%  
27 19% 56% Last Result, Median
28 14% 37%  
29 7% 23%  
30 8% 16%  
31 4% 8%  
32 2% 4%  
33 1.0% 2%  
34 0.1% 0.5%  
35 0.3% 0.4%  
36 0% 0.1%  
37 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.1% 100%  
12 0.3% 99.9%  
13 2% 99.6%  
14 4% 98%  
15 9% 94%  
16 21% 85%  
17 17% 64% Median
18 12% 47%  
19 19% 35% Last Result
20 9% 16%  
21 3% 7%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.7% 1.0%  
24 0.1% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.4% 100%  
9 4% 99.5%  
10 10% 96%  
11 18% 86% Last Result
12 24% 68% Median
13 21% 45%  
14 13% 24%  
15 7% 11%  
16 3% 4%  
17 0.8% 1.1%  
18 0.2% 0.3%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 31% 99.9%  
3 2% 69%  
4 0% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 0% 67%  
7 11% 67%  
8 25% 56% Last Result, Median
9 19% 30%  
10 7% 11%  
11 3% 4%  
12 0.4% 0.5%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 5% 99.8%  
2 3% 95%  
3 24% 92%  
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0% 68%  
7 13% 68%  
8 26% 54% Last Result, Median
9 22% 28%  
10 6% 7%  
11 0.9% 1.2%  
12 0.2% 0.3%  
13 0% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 25% 99.8% Last Result
2 48% 75% Median
3 1.2% 27%  
4 2% 26%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0.5% 24%  
7 8% 24%  
8 9% 16%  
9 5% 7%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 53% 100% Last Result, Median
2 42% 47%  
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0.4% 5%  
7 2% 5%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.4%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 105 100% 100–110 98–112 97–112 94–114
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 91 93% 85–95 84–96 83–97 79–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 88 77% 82–92 80–93 78–95 76–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 87 69% 81–91 80–92 79–94 76–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 81 23% 77–87 76–89 74–91 72–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 80 12% 75–85 74–87 73–89 71–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 15% 76–86 75–88 73–89 70–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 78 7% 74–84 73–85 72–86 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 2% 72–81 71–83 70–84 68–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 74 1.5% 70–80 68–81 68–83 65–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 74 0.8% 68–78 67–80 66–82 64–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 71 0% 66–75 64–76 63–78 60–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 64 0% 60–69 59–70 59–72 57–74
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 61 0% 55–66 53–67 52–68 50–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 55–64 54–65 53–67 51–70
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 31 0% 24–36 22–37 21–38 19–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
91 0.1% 100%  
92 0.2% 99.9%  
93 0.2% 99.7%  
94 0.6% 99.5%  
95 0.6% 98.9%  
96 0.8% 98%  
97 1.5% 98%  
98 2% 96%  
99 3% 94%  
100 4% 91%  
101 6% 87%  
102 9% 81%  
103 10% 71%  
104 7% 62%  
105 8% 54%  
106 10% 46%  
107 5% 36% Last Result, Median
108 17% 31%  
109 3% 14%  
110 4% 11%  
111 1.2% 7%  
112 4% 6%  
113 1.0% 2%  
114 0.5% 0.8%  
115 0.2% 0.3%  
116 0% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.5% 99.7%  
80 0.2% 99.2%  
81 0.5% 99.0%  
82 0.8% 98%  
83 2% 98%  
84 3% 96%  
85 4% 93% Majority
86 4% 88%  
87 4% 85%  
88 7% 80%  
89 6% 73% Last Result
90 11% 67%  
91 16% 56%  
92 10% 40% Median
93 6% 30%  
94 11% 24%  
95 4% 13%  
96 5% 9%  
97 3% 4%  
98 1.2% 2%  
99 0.5% 0.8%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 1.4% 99.5%  
78 0.6% 98%  
79 1.3% 97%  
80 1.4% 96%  
81 2% 95%  
82 4% 92%  
83 5% 89%  
84 7% 84%  
85 8% 77% Majority
86 11% 69%  
87 8% 59%  
88 8% 51% Last Result
89 13% 43%  
90 9% 30% Median
91 6% 21%  
92 7% 15%  
93 4% 9%  
94 2% 5%  
95 2% 3%  
96 0.4% 1.2%  
97 0.6% 0.8%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.3% 99.8%  
77 0.3% 99.4%  
78 1.1% 99.1%  
79 2% 98%  
80 4% 96%  
81 5% 92%  
82 3% 87%  
83 4% 84%  
84 11% 79%  
85 10% 69% Majority
86 8% 59% Median
87 11% 51%  
88 11% 40% Last Result
89 5% 29%  
90 11% 24%  
91 5% 13%  
92 4% 8%  
93 1.3% 4%  
94 1.3% 3%  
95 0.6% 2%  
96 0.7% 1.3%  
97 0.3% 0.6%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.2%  
74 2% 98.8%  
75 2% 97%  
76 4% 95%  
77 7% 91%  
78 6% 85%  
79 9% 79% Median
80 13% 70%  
81 8% 57% Last Result
82 8% 49%  
83 11% 41%  
84 8% 31%  
85 7% 23% Majority
86 5% 16%  
87 4% 11%  
88 2% 8%  
89 1.4% 5%  
90 1.3% 4%  
91 0.6% 3%  
92 1.4% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 99.7%  
72 0.7% 98.9%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 5% 94%  
76 8% 89%  
77 10% 81%  
78 13% 71% Median
79 8% 59%  
80 8% 51% Last Result
81 9% 43%  
82 9% 34%  
83 9% 25%  
84 4% 16%  
85 5% 12% Majority
86 2% 8%  
87 1.1% 5%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.0% 3%  
90 0.4% 2%  
91 1.0% 1.3%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.3% 99.8%  
71 0.6% 99.4%  
72 0.6% 98.8%  
73 0.9% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 1.4% 95%  
76 5% 94%  
77 9% 89%  
78 8% 80%  
79 7% 72%  
80 16% 66% Last Result
81 9% 50%  
82 10% 41% Median
83 6% 31%  
84 11% 26%  
85 2% 15% Majority
86 2% 12%  
87 4% 10%  
88 3% 6%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.9% 1.4%  
91 0.2% 0.5%  
92 0.2% 0.3%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.7%  
71 1.2% 99.2%  
72 3% 98%  
73 5% 96%  
74 4% 91%  
75 11% 87%  
76 6% 76%  
77 10% 70% Median
78 16% 60%  
79 11% 44%  
80 6% 33% Last Result
81 7% 27%  
82 4% 20%  
83 4% 15%  
84 4% 12%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.5% 2%  
89 0.2% 1.0%  
90 0.5% 0.8%  
91 0.3% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.8%  
69 0.6% 99.2%  
70 1.4% 98.7%  
71 4% 97%  
72 5% 93%  
73 5% 88%  
74 12% 83%  
75 8% 71%  
76 18% 63% Median
77 9% 45%  
78 8% 36%  
79 7% 28% Last Result
80 5% 20%  
81 5% 15%  
82 3% 10%  
83 3% 7%  
84 2% 4%  
85 0.6% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 1.5%  
87 0.3% 1.1%  
88 0.1% 0.8%  
89 0.6% 0.7%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.8%  
65 0.4% 99.7%  
66 0.5% 99.3%  
67 1.0% 98.8%  
68 3% 98%  
69 3% 95%  
70 8% 92%  
71 7% 84%  
72 12% 77% Last Result
73 9% 65%  
74 8% 56% Median
75 8% 48%  
76 9% 40%  
77 8% 31%  
78 8% 23%  
79 3% 15%  
80 4% 12%  
81 4% 7%  
82 1.3% 4%  
83 0.8% 3%  
84 0.3% 2%  
85 1.1% 1.5% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.8% 99.7%  
65 0.7% 98.9%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 7% 94%  
69 4% 88%  
70 3% 84%  
71 2% 81%  
72 4% 79%  
73 16% 75%  
74 12% 59% Median
75 11% 47%  
76 13% 36%  
77 4% 23% Last Result
78 9% 18%  
79 4% 10%  
80 1.5% 6%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.8% 3%  
83 0.6% 2%  
84 0.3% 1.1%  
85 0.3% 0.8% Majority
86 0.3% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.4% 99.9%  
61 0.4% 99.5%  
62 1.1% 99.1%  
63 0.9% 98%  
64 3% 97%  
65 3% 94%  
66 4% 92%  
67 8% 87%  
68 7% 80%  
69 6% 72%  
70 5% 67%  
71 18% 62%  
72 8% 44% Median
73 14% 36%  
74 10% 22%  
75 4% 12%  
76 3% 8% Last Result
77 2% 5%  
78 1.0% 3%  
79 0.4% 2%  
80 0.7% 1.3%  
81 0.2% 0.5%  
82 0.1% 0.3%  
83 0.1% 0.2%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.3% 99.9%  
57 0.7% 99.6%  
58 1.3% 98.8%  
59 4% 98%  
60 5% 94%  
61 8% 89%  
62 9% 81%  
63 14% 73%  
64 16% 58% Median
65 12% 42%  
66 6% 30%  
67 7% 24%  
68 4% 16% Last Result
69 4% 12%  
70 5% 9%  
71 1.2% 4%  
72 0.8% 3%  
73 0.9% 2%  
74 0.7% 1.0%  
75 0.1% 0.3%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.6%  
51 1.4% 99.0%  
52 0.9% 98%  
53 2% 97%  
54 3% 95%  
55 4% 91%  
56 6% 87%  
57 5% 82%  
58 8% 77%  
59 8% 69%  
60 8% 61%  
61 11% 53% Last Result
62 12% 42%  
63 8% 30% Median
64 3% 22%  
65 7% 19%  
66 6% 12%  
67 3% 7%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.5% 1.2%  
70 0.4% 0.8%  
71 0.2% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.8%  
52 0.6% 99.3%  
53 2% 98.7%  
54 4% 97%  
55 7% 93%  
56 8% 86%  
57 12% 78%  
58 13% 66%  
59 10% 53% Median
60 9% 42% Last Result
61 10% 33%  
62 6% 24%  
63 5% 17%  
64 5% 12%  
65 3% 7%  
66 1.1% 4%  
67 1.5% 3%  
68 0.7% 1.5%  
69 0.2% 0.8%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.4% 100%  
19 0.1% 99.6%  
20 1.0% 99.5%  
21 1.2% 98.5%  
22 3% 97%  
23 2% 94%  
24 3% 92%  
25 3% 89%  
26 6% 86%  
27 9% 80%  
28 7% 71%  
29 6% 64%  
30 7% 57%  
31 10% 50%  
32 6% 40%  
33 5% 35% Median
34 7% 30%  
35 8% 23% Last Result
36 6% 15%  
37 6% 9%  
38 2% 3%  
39 0.5% 0.8%  
40 0.2% 0.3%  
41 0% 0.1%  
42 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations