Opinion Poll by Sentio, 5–11 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.6% 24.6–28.7% 24.0–29.3% 23.5–29.8% 22.6–30.8%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.9% 24.0–28.0% 23.4–28.6% 22.9–29.1% 22.0–30.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.8% 13.3–16.6% 12.9–17.1% 12.5–17.5% 11.8–18.4%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.5% 9.2–12.1% 8.9–12.5% 8.6–12.9% 8.0–13.7%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.0% 5.0–7.2% 4.7–7.6% 4.5–7.9% 4.1–8.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.7% 3.5–6.0% 3.3–6.3% 2.9–6.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.2% 2.2–5.8%
Venstre 4.4% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.1% 2.1–5.6%
Rødt 2.4% 2.6% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.8% 1.7–4.0% 1.4–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 44–52 43–53 42–54 40–57
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 43–51 42–52 41–53 40–56
Fremskrittspartiet 27 27 24–30 23–31 23–32 21–33
Senterpartiet 19 19 16–22 16–22 15–23 14–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 12 8–13 8–14 8–14 7–15
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–11 2–11 1–13
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–9 1–10
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 1.2% 99.5%  
42 3% 98%  
43 4% 96%  
44 4% 92%  
45 10% 88% Last Result
46 10% 78%  
47 10% 68%  
48 11% 58% Median
49 12% 47%  
50 12% 35%  
51 8% 23%  
52 8% 15%  
53 2% 7%  
54 3% 5%  
55 1.3% 2%  
56 0.4% 0.9%  
57 0.1% 0.5%  
58 0.2% 0.4%  
59 0.1% 0.1%  
60 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.4% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.3%  
42 3% 97%  
43 7% 94%  
44 7% 86%  
45 11% 79%  
46 6% 68%  
47 15% 62% Median
48 11% 47%  
49 12% 36% Last Result
50 13% 24%  
51 4% 11%  
52 3% 7%  
53 1.2% 4%  
54 1.3% 2%  
55 0.5% 1.1%  
56 0.5% 0.6%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0.1% 0.1%  
59 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.3% 99.9%  
21 0.5% 99.6%  
22 2% 99.1%  
23 5% 98%  
24 6% 92%  
25 13% 87%  
26 16% 73%  
27 13% 57% Last Result, Median
28 17% 44%  
29 13% 28%  
30 6% 15%  
31 4% 8%  
32 3% 4%  
33 0.7% 1.2%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.5% 99.9%  
15 3% 99.4%  
16 6% 96%  
17 14% 90%  
18 14% 76%  
19 14% 61% Last Result, Median
20 19% 47%  
21 18% 28%  
22 6% 11%  
23 3% 5%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 0.5% 0.8%  
26 0.2% 0.3%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.2% 100%  
3 0% 99.8%  
4 0% 99.8%  
5 0% 99.8%  
6 0% 99.8%  
7 0.8% 99.8%  
8 9% 98.9%  
9 21% 90%  
10 8% 69%  
11 5% 61% Last Result
12 23% 56% Median
13 27% 33%  
14 5% 6%  
15 0.5% 0.8%  
16 0.1% 0.3%  
17 0.1% 0.2%  
18 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 1.1% 98%  
3 22% 97%  
4 0% 75%  
5 0% 75%  
6 0% 75%  
7 7% 75%  
8 24% 68% Last Result, Median
9 24% 44%  
10 14% 20%  
11 4% 6%  
12 2% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 17% 99.9% Last Result
2 44% 83% Median
3 7% 39%  
4 1.1% 32%  
5 0% 31%  
6 0% 31%  
7 10% 31%  
8 12% 21%  
9 8% 9%  
10 1.1% 1.4%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 61% 98% Median
3 10% 36%  
4 0% 26%  
5 0% 26%  
6 0% 26%  
7 8% 26%  
8 13% 18% Last Result
9 4% 5%  
10 0.7% 0.9%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 59% 99.9% Last Result, Median
2 39% 41%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 1.0% 2%  
8 1.0% 1.2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 105 100% 100–110 98–112 98–113 94–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 90 93% 85–96 83–97 82–98 80–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 88 84% 83–94 82–95 81–96 79–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 86 64% 81–91 79–93 78–94 76–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 83 36% 78–88 76–90 75–91 73–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 20% 76–86 74–89 73–89 71–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 79 7% 73–84 72–86 71–87 69–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 8% 74–84 72–86 71–86 69–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 78 5% 73–83 71–84 70–85 68–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 3% 72–82 70–84 69–85 68–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 76 0.7% 70–80 69–81 68–82 66–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 74 0.1% 68–78 67–80 67–81 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 61–70 60–72 60–73 58–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 64 0% 59–69 57–71 56–71 54–75
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 59 0% 54–65 52–67 51–68 49–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 58 0% 53–63 52–64 51–65 50–67
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 30 0% 25–35 25–37 23–38 21–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0.1% 100%  
93 0.3% 99.9%  
94 0.2% 99.6%  
95 0.3% 99.4%  
96 0.6% 99.1%  
97 0.9% 98.5%  
98 3% 98%  
99 2% 95%  
100 5% 93%  
101 5% 88%  
102 5% 82%  
103 6% 78%  
104 17% 72% Median
105 6% 55%  
106 11% 49%  
107 7% 38% Last Result
108 8% 31%  
109 10% 24%  
110 6% 14%  
111 3% 8%  
112 2% 6%  
113 1.4% 4%  
114 0.9% 2%  
115 1.1% 1.4%  
116 0.2% 0.4%  
117 0.2% 0.2%  
118 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.2% 99.8%  
80 1.1% 99.6%  
81 0.6% 98.6%  
82 0.7% 98%  
83 2% 97%  
84 2% 95%  
85 6% 93% Majority
86 9% 86%  
87 4% 77% Median
88 9% 73%  
89 11% 64% Last Result
90 12% 53%  
91 8% 41%  
92 6% 32%  
93 6% 27%  
94 6% 21%  
95 4% 15%  
96 3% 10%  
97 2% 7%  
98 3% 5%  
99 2% 2%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.2% 0.2%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.2% 99.8%  
79 0.7% 99.6%  
80 0.6% 98.9%  
81 1.2% 98%  
82 4% 97%  
83 3% 93%  
84 5% 90%  
85 4% 84% Majority
86 7% 80%  
87 12% 74%  
88 13% 62% Last Result, Median
89 11% 49%  
90 6% 38%  
91 6% 32%  
92 12% 26%  
93 4% 15%  
94 3% 11%  
95 4% 8%  
96 2% 4%  
97 0.7% 2%  
98 0.8% 1.4%  
99 0.3% 0.6%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0% 99.9%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.8%  
76 0.8% 99.5%  
77 0.3% 98.8%  
78 2% 98%  
79 3% 97%  
80 2% 94%  
81 3% 91%  
82 6% 88%  
83 8% 82%  
84 10% 74%  
85 7% 64% Median, Majority
86 7% 56%  
87 10% 49%  
88 9% 39% Last Result
89 11% 30%  
90 3% 19%  
91 6% 16%  
92 3% 10%  
93 2% 6%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.2% 2%  
96 0.6% 1.1%  
97 0.4% 0.5%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 0.6% 99.5%  
74 1.2% 98.9%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 95%  
77 3% 94%  
78 6% 90%  
79 3% 84%  
80 11% 81%  
81 9% 70% Last Result, Median
82 10% 61%  
83 7% 51%  
84 7% 44%  
85 10% 36% Majority
86 8% 26%  
87 6% 18%  
88 3% 12%  
89 2% 9%  
90 3% 6%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.3% 2%  
93 0.8% 1.2%  
94 0.3% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.8% 99.8%  
72 0.7% 99.0%  
73 2% 98%  
74 2% 96%  
75 2% 94%  
76 3% 92%  
77 6% 89%  
78 10% 82%  
79 6% 72%  
80 10% 66% Last Result, Median
81 10% 56%  
82 6% 46%  
83 6% 40%  
84 14% 34%  
85 4% 20% Majority
86 6% 16%  
87 2% 10%  
88 3% 8%  
89 3% 5%  
90 1.0% 2%  
91 0.3% 1.2%  
92 0.7% 0.9%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.8%  
70 2% 99.4%  
71 3% 98%  
72 2% 95%  
73 3% 93%  
74 4% 90%  
75 6% 85%  
76 6% 79%  
77 6% 73%  
78 8% 68%  
79 12% 59% Median
80 11% 47% Last Result
81 9% 36%  
82 4% 27%  
83 9% 23%  
84 6% 14%  
85 2% 7% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 0.7% 3%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 1.1% 1.4%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.6%  
70 1.0% 99.3%  
71 0.8% 98%  
72 3% 97%  
73 4% 94%  
74 3% 90%  
75 5% 87%  
76 13% 83%  
77 6% 70% Median
78 8% 64%  
79 15% 56%  
80 12% 41% Last Result
81 5% 29%  
82 7% 24%  
83 3% 17%  
84 5% 14%  
85 3% 8% Majority
86 3% 5%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.3%  
89 0.3% 0.6%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.6%  
69 2% 99.4%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 96%  
72 3% 93%  
73 6% 91%  
74 9% 85%  
75 7% 76%  
76 10% 69% Median
77 8% 59% Last Result
78 9% 51%  
79 11% 41%  
80 9% 30%  
81 7% 21%  
82 3% 14%  
83 3% 11%  
84 3% 7%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 1.1% 2%  
87 0.5% 1.2%  
88 0.3% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.7% 99.6%  
69 2% 98.9%  
70 3% 97%  
71 3% 94%  
72 3% 91%  
73 5% 88%  
74 6% 82%  
75 6% 76%  
76 9% 70%  
77 10% 61%  
78 8% 52% Median
79 12% 43% Last Result
80 6% 31%  
81 4% 25%  
82 13% 21%  
83 2% 8%  
84 3% 6%  
85 1.2% 3% Majority
86 0.2% 2%  
87 1.1% 2%  
88 0.4% 0.6%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.2% 99.8%  
66 0.8% 99.6%  
67 0.7% 98.8%  
68 3% 98%  
69 2% 95%  
70 4% 93%  
71 6% 89%  
72 5% 84% Last Result
73 6% 78%  
74 13% 72%  
75 8% 59% Median
76 14% 51%  
77 12% 37%  
78 10% 25%  
79 3% 14%  
80 4% 11%  
81 2% 6%  
82 3% 5%  
83 0.3% 1.4%  
84 0.4% 1.1%  
85 0.4% 0.7% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.1% 99.8%  
64 0.8% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 98.9%  
66 0.7% 98%  
67 4% 98%  
68 4% 93%  
69 3% 90%  
70 7% 87%  
71 10% 79%  
72 8% 69%  
73 9% 61%  
74 8% 52% Median
75 7% 44%  
76 12% 37% Last Result
77 7% 26%  
78 11% 19%  
79 3% 8%  
80 1.4% 5%  
81 2% 4%  
82 0.8% 2%  
83 0.6% 0.9%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.6% 99.7%  
59 1.4% 99.1%  
60 4% 98%  
61 4% 94%  
62 6% 89%  
63 5% 83%  
64 9% 78%  
65 8% 69%  
66 10% 61% Median
67 10% 51%  
68 12% 41% Last Result
69 9% 29%  
70 11% 20%  
71 4% 10%  
72 3% 6%  
73 1.2% 3%  
74 1.1% 2%  
75 0.4% 1.2%  
76 0.5% 0.8%  
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.2% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 1.1% 99.6%  
55 0.9% 98.6%  
56 1.4% 98%  
57 2% 96%  
58 3% 94%  
59 6% 91%  
60 10% 86%  
61 8% 76%  
62 7% 69% Last Result, Median
63 11% 62%  
64 6% 51%  
65 17% 45%  
66 6% 28%  
67 5% 22%  
68 5% 18%  
69 5% 12%  
70 2% 7%  
71 3% 5%  
72 0.9% 2%  
73 0.6% 1.4%  
74 0.3% 0.9%  
75 0.2% 0.6%  
76 0.3% 0.4%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.7%  
50 0.3% 99.4%  
51 2% 99.0%  
52 3% 97%  
53 3% 95%  
54 3% 91%  
55 14% 89%  
56 6% 74%  
57 8% 69%  
58 7% 61% Median
59 8% 54%  
60 7% 46%  
61 7% 39% Last Result
62 8% 32%  
63 9% 24%  
64 5% 15%  
65 3% 10%  
66 2% 7%  
67 2% 5%  
68 3% 4%  
69 0.7% 1.0%  
70 0.2% 0.4%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 1.1% 99.6%  
51 2% 98%  
52 4% 96%  
53 3% 93%  
54 5% 90%  
55 6% 85%  
56 9% 79%  
57 10% 70%  
58 11% 60%  
59 10% 49% Median
60 8% 39% Last Result
61 12% 32%  
62 9% 19%  
63 3% 10%  
64 3% 7%  
65 2% 4%  
66 0.9% 2%  
67 0.7% 1.0%  
68 0.1% 0.4%  
69 0.2% 0.3%  
70 0% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.9%  
21 0.5% 99.5%  
22 0.9% 99.0%  
23 1.4% 98%  
24 1.5% 97%  
25 5% 95%  
26 9% 90%  
27 4% 81%  
28 9% 77%  
29 9% 68% Median
30 16% 59%  
31 8% 42%  
32 8% 34%  
33 8% 25%  
34 5% 18%  
35 4% 13% Last Result
36 3% 9%  
37 3% 6%  
38 1.2% 3%  
39 0.8% 2%  
40 0.6% 0.8%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations