Opinion Poll by Norstat, 12–18 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.4% 24.7–28.3% 24.2–28.9% 23.7–29.4% 22.9–30.3%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.9% 24.2–27.8% 23.7–28.3% 23.2–28.8% 22.4–29.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.9% 12.6–15.5% 12.2–15.9% 11.8–16.3% 11.2–17.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.5% 9.4–11.9% 9.0–12.3% 8.7–12.7% 8.2–13.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.4% 7.4–9.7% 7.1–10.1% 6.8–10.4% 6.3–11.0%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Venstre 4.4% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Rødt 2.4% 2.8% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.7–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 45–52 43–53 43–55 42–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 48 44–52 42–52 42–53 41–55
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 23–29 22–29 22–30 20–31
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–22 16–22 16–24 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 13–18 13–18 12–19 12–20
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–10
Venstre 8 2 2–7 2–8 2–8 1–9
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–8 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.3% 99.8%  
42 1.0% 99.5%  
43 4% 98.5%  
44 3% 95%  
45 11% 92% Last Result
46 11% 81%  
47 18% 70%  
48 13% 52% Median
49 10% 39%  
50 7% 29%  
51 7% 22%  
52 7% 15%  
53 3% 7%  
54 2% 4%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.3% 0.8%  
57 0.3% 0.5%  
58 0.1% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.2% 100%  
41 0.7% 99.7%  
42 4% 99.0%  
43 4% 95%  
44 4% 91%  
45 5% 86%  
46 9% 81%  
47 15% 72%  
48 19% 57% Median
49 7% 38% Last Result
50 11% 31%  
51 9% 21%  
52 9% 12%  
53 1.2% 3%  
54 0.8% 1.4%  
55 0.2% 0.7%  
56 0.3% 0.4%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.2% 100%  
20 0.4% 99.8%  
21 1.2% 99.5%  
22 5% 98%  
23 9% 94%  
24 11% 85%  
25 24% 73% Median
26 23% 49%  
27 9% 26% Last Result
28 6% 17%  
29 8% 10%  
30 2% 3%  
31 0.8% 1.1%  
32 0.2% 0.3%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 5% 98%  
17 9% 93%  
18 12% 84%  
19 12% 72% Last Result
20 13% 60% Median
21 36% 47%  
22 7% 11%  
23 1.4% 5%  
24 3% 3%  
25 0.4% 0.6%  
26 0.2% 0.2%  
27 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.4% 100% Last Result
12 2% 99.6%  
13 8% 97%  
14 12% 89%  
15 22% 77%  
16 25% 55% Median
17 19% 30%  
18 7% 12%  
19 4% 5%  
20 0.8% 1.0%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 16% 100% Last Result
2 50% 84% Median
3 5% 34%  
4 0.7% 29%  
5 0% 28%  
6 0% 28%  
7 13% 28%  
8 11% 15%  
9 3% 4%  
10 1.1% 1.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100%  
1 16% 99.2%  
2 9% 83%  
3 46% 74% Median
4 0% 28%  
5 0% 28%  
6 0% 28%  
7 8% 28%  
8 16% 20% Last Result
9 4% 4%  
10 0.5% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 78% 98% Median
3 3% 19%  
4 0% 16%  
5 0% 16%  
6 0% 16%  
7 7% 16%  
8 7% 9% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.3% 0.3%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 53% 100% Last Result, Median
2 43% 47%  
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 1.0% 4%  
8 3% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 100 100% 96–105 95–107 94–108 91–109
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 91 93% 86–95 84–96 83–98 81–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 89 82% 82–94 81–94 80–94 79–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 87 76% 81–92 80–93 79–93 77–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 83 37% 79–90 79–91 78–93 77–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 86 63% 79–90 78–90 76–91 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 84 46% 77–88 76–89 75–89 73–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 80 18% 75–87 75–88 75–89 73–90
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 76 2% 72–82 71–84 70–84 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 75 0.3% 70–79 69–80 68–83 66–84
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 74 0.1% 70–78 68–80 67–81 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0% 67–76 66–76 65–78 62–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 68 0% 62–72 61–73 60–73 59–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 64 0% 59–68 58–68 56–69 55–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 55 0% 50–61 49–62 49–63 47–65
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 26 0% 22–31 21–32 20–33 19–36

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
90 0.1% 100%  
91 0.4% 99.9%  
92 0.6% 99.5%  
93 0.8% 98.9%  
94 2% 98%  
95 3% 97%  
96 11% 93%  
97 6% 83%  
98 10% 76% Median
99 13% 67%  
100 9% 54%  
101 7% 45%  
102 10% 38%  
103 8% 28%  
104 8% 20%  
105 3% 11%  
106 3% 8%  
107 3% 6% Last Result
108 2% 3%  
109 0.5% 0.7%  
110 0.1% 0.2%  
111 0.1% 0.1%  
112 0.1% 0.1%  
113 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.1% 100%  
80 0.3% 99.8%  
81 0.2% 99.6%  
82 0.4% 99.4%  
83 2% 99.0%  
84 4% 97%  
85 3% 93% Majority
86 4% 91%  
87 5% 87%  
88 8% 82% Last Result
89 9% 74% Median
90 12% 65%  
91 9% 54%  
92 9% 44%  
93 9% 36%  
94 13% 27%  
95 7% 13%  
96 3% 6%  
97 0.7% 3%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.4% 0.7%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.6%  
80 2% 99.3%  
81 5% 97% Last Result
82 3% 92%  
83 4% 89%  
84 3% 85%  
85 3% 82% Majority
86 5% 79%  
87 9% 74% Median
88 9% 65%  
89 12% 56%  
90 10% 44%  
91 10% 34%  
92 10% 25%  
93 4% 14%  
94 9% 11%  
95 1.1% 2%  
96 0.2% 0.5%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.3% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.6%  
78 0.6% 99.4%  
79 3% 98.8%  
80 5% 96% Last Result
81 5% 91%  
82 4% 86%  
83 3% 82%  
84 3% 79%  
85 12% 76% Majority
86 6% 64% Median
87 11% 58%  
88 12% 47%  
89 5% 35%  
90 9% 30%  
91 10% 21%  
92 6% 11%  
93 4% 5%  
94 0.6% 1.0%  
95 0.2% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.8%  
77 0.5% 99.6%  
78 2% 99.1%  
79 8% 97%  
80 8% 90% Median
81 9% 82%  
82 17% 73%  
83 10% 55%  
84 8% 45%  
85 7% 37% Majority
86 4% 30%  
87 6% 26%  
88 3% 20%  
89 4% 17% Last Result
90 4% 13%  
91 4% 9%  
92 2% 5%  
93 2% 3%  
94 0.7% 1.3%  
95 0.5% 0.6%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.5% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.4%  
76 2% 98.7%  
77 2% 97%  
78 4% 95%  
79 4% 91%  
80 4% 87% Last Result
81 3% 83%  
82 6% 80%  
83 4% 74%  
84 7% 70%  
85 8% 63% Median, Majority
86 10% 55%  
87 17% 45%  
88 9% 27%  
89 8% 18%  
90 8% 10%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.5% 0.9%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 1.0% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 98.9%  
75 2% 98%  
76 2% 96%  
77 5% 95%  
78 4% 89%  
79 5% 85% Last Result
80 7% 81%  
81 3% 74%  
82 6% 70%  
83 11% 65%  
84 7% 53% Median
85 14% 46% Majority
86 12% 32%  
87 5% 20%  
88 7% 15%  
89 7% 8%  
90 0.8% 1.3%  
91 0.4% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 1.1% 99.5%  
75 9% 98%  
76 4% 89%  
77 10% 86%  
78 10% 75% Median
79 10% 66%  
80 12% 56%  
81 9% 44%  
82 9% 35%  
83 5% 26%  
84 3% 21%  
85 3% 18% Majority
86 4% 15%  
87 3% 11%  
88 5% 8% Last Result
89 2% 3%  
90 0.3% 0.7%  
91 0.3% 0.4%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 2% 99.4%  
70 0.6% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 7% 94%  
73 5% 87%  
74 17% 82%  
75 5% 65% Median
76 12% 60%  
77 11% 48%  
78 7% 36%  
79 9% 29%  
80 6% 20% Last Result
81 4% 15%  
82 4% 11%  
83 2% 7%  
84 3% 5%  
85 2% 2% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0.1% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.6% 99.5%  
67 1.4% 98.9%  
68 2% 98%  
69 3% 95%  
70 3% 92%  
71 4% 89%  
72 5% 85%  
73 13% 80% Median
74 9% 67%  
75 10% 58%  
76 11% 48%  
77 11% 37% Last Result
78 10% 26%  
79 8% 15%  
80 3% 7%  
81 0.7% 4%  
82 1.1% 4%  
83 2% 3%  
84 0.4% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.3% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.7% 99.5%  
67 2% 98.8%  
68 2% 97%  
69 4% 95%  
70 7% 91%  
71 7% 83%  
72 19% 76% Last Result
73 7% 57% Median
74 12% 50%  
75 11% 38%  
76 7% 27%  
77 9% 20%  
78 3% 11%  
79 2% 8%  
80 2% 5%  
81 1.1% 3%  
82 1.3% 2%  
83 0.8% 0.9%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.5%  
64 0.8% 98.8%  
65 3% 98%  
66 4% 95%  
67 5% 91%  
68 7% 86%  
69 6% 79%  
70 11% 73%  
71 8% 62% Median
72 16% 55%  
73 8% 39%  
74 8% 31%  
75 9% 23%  
76 10% 15% Last Result
77 2% 5%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.4% 1.1%  
80 0.5% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.7%  
60 4% 99.3%  
61 2% 96%  
62 5% 94%  
63 4% 89%  
64 5% 85%  
65 5% 79%  
66 6% 74%  
67 10% 68%  
68 11% 57% Last Result, Median
69 18% 46%  
70 5% 29%  
71 12% 24%  
72 4% 12%  
73 7% 8%  
74 0.8% 1.4%  
75 0.4% 0.6%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 1.1% 99.8%  
56 1.5% 98.7%  
57 2% 97%  
58 3% 95%  
59 5% 92%  
60 5% 87% Last Result
61 9% 82%  
62 10% 74%  
63 9% 64%  
64 12% 55% Median
65 13% 42%  
66 10% 29%  
67 6% 19%  
68 9% 13%  
69 2% 3%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.9%  
72 0.5% 0.6%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.9%  
48 0.7% 99.2%  
49 4% 98%  
50 11% 95%  
51 4% 84%  
52 15% 80%  
53 8% 65% Median
54 6% 57%  
55 6% 50%  
56 9% 45%  
57 10% 36%  
58 5% 26%  
59 6% 21%  
60 5% 15%  
61 3% 10% Last Result
62 4% 7%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.4% 1.2%  
65 0.5% 0.8%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.8% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.1%  
21 3% 97%  
22 5% 93%  
23 5% 88%  
24 8% 84%  
25 14% 76% Median
26 22% 62%  
27 6% 39%  
28 4% 34%  
29 5% 30%  
30 6% 24%  
31 10% 18%  
32 4% 9%  
33 2% 5%  
34 1.1% 2%  
35 0.5% 1.3% Last Result
36 0.4% 0.8%  
37 0.3% 0.4%  
38 0.1% 0.1%  
39 0% 0.1%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations