Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 18–20 December 2017

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.5% 24.7–28.4% 24.2–28.9% 23.7–29.4% 22.9–30.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 26.3% 24.5–28.2% 24.0–28.7% 23.5–29.2% 22.7–30.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.7% 12.3–15.2% 11.9–15.7% 11.6–16.0% 11.0–16.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.1% 8.9–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.3–12.2% 7.8–12.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.0% 6.9–9.2% 6.6–9.6% 6.4–9.9% 5.9–10.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.8% 4.0–5.9% 3.8–6.2% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–7.0%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.6% 2.0–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.7–3.8% 1.5–4.2%
Rødt 2.4% 1.9% 1.5–2.7% 1.3–2.9% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 47 44–50 43–51 42–53 40–55
Arbeiderpartiet 49 47 44–51 43–52 42–53 41–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 21–27 21–28 21–29 20–30
Senterpartiet 19 19 16–21 15–22 15–22 13–23
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 13–16 12–17 12–18 11–19
Venstre 8 9 7–10 2–11 2–12 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–9 3–10 2–10 1–11
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–7
Rødt 1 1 1 1 0–2 0–2

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.4% 99.9%  
41 0.6% 99.5%  
42 2% 98.9%  
43 3% 97%  
44 6% 95%  
45 10% 88% Last Result
46 12% 78%  
47 23% 66% Median
48 11% 43%  
49 17% 32%  
50 6% 14%  
51 4% 8%  
52 2% 5%  
53 1.3% 3%  
54 1.0% 2%  
55 0.4% 0.6%  
56 0.1% 0.2%  
57 0.1% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.5% 99.8%  
42 3% 99.3%  
43 4% 97%  
44 6% 93%  
45 13% 87%  
46 18% 74%  
47 14% 56% Median
48 11% 42%  
49 15% 32% Last Result
50 5% 17%  
51 4% 11%  
52 4% 8%  
53 2% 3%  
54 0.5% 1.0%  
55 0.2% 0.5%  
56 0.2% 0.2%  
57 0% 0.1%  
58 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.3% 99.9%  
20 2% 99.5%  
21 9% 98%  
22 6% 89%  
23 8% 82%  
24 10% 74%  
25 36% 64% Median
26 13% 28%  
27 7% 15% Last Result
28 5% 8%  
29 2% 3%  
30 0.9% 1.3%  
31 0.3% 0.4%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.5% 100%  
14 1.1% 99.5%  
15 6% 98%  
16 15% 92%  
17 11% 78%  
18 15% 67%  
19 27% 51% Last Result, Median
20 10% 24%  
21 8% 14%  
22 5% 6%  
23 0.6% 0.9%  
24 0.3% 0.3%  
25 0% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.4% 100%  
11 2% 99.6% Last Result
12 6% 98%  
13 20% 92%  
14 28% 72% Median
15 26% 44%  
16 9% 19%  
17 6% 10%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.8% 1.0%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 6% 100%  
3 2% 94%  
4 0% 92%  
5 0% 92%  
6 0% 92%  
7 7% 92%  
8 34% 85% Last Result
9 29% 50% Median
10 14% 21%  
11 5% 7%  
12 2% 3%  
13 0.5% 0.6%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 2% 98%  
3 23% 96%  
4 0% 73%  
5 0% 73%  
6 0% 73%  
7 20% 73%  
8 27% 52% Last Result, Median
9 17% 25%  
10 7% 8%  
11 0.9% 1.2%  
12 0.2% 0.2%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100%  
1 75% 94% Last Result, Median
2 18% 19%  
3 0.1% 1.4%  
4 0% 1.2%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0% 1.2%  
7 0.9% 1.2%  
8 0.3% 0.3%  
9 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100%  
1 92% 96% Last Result, Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 106 100% 102–109 100–109 99–110 97–113
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 88 84% 84–92 83–93 82–94 80–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 88 90% 84–91 83–93 81–93 79–96
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 87 75% 83–91 82–92 81–92 79–95
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 82 25% 78–86 77–87 77–88 74–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 16% 77–85 76–86 76–87 73–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 81 16% 77–85 76–86 75–87 73–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 5% 77–83 75–85 75–87 72–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 80 8% 76–84 75–85 74–86 72–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 73 0.1% 70–77 69–79 67–80 65–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0% 69–76 67–78 66–79 63–81
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 72 0% 69–75 67–77 66–78 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 65 0% 62–70 61–71 60–72 58–74
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 62 0% 58–66 57–67 56–68 53–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 61 0% 58–65 58–67 57–67 54–70
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 34 0% 30–37 28–38 26–39 23–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.9%  
97 0.4% 99.7%  
98 0.5% 99.3%  
99 1.4% 98.8%  
100 4% 97%  
101 3% 94%  
102 5% 90%  
103 13% 85%  
104 9% 72%  
105 11% 63%  
106 23% 52%  
107 8% 29% Last Result
108 10% 22% Median
109 7% 12%  
110 2% 4%  
111 0.8% 2%  
112 0.7% 1.2%  
113 0.2% 0.6%  
114 0.2% 0.3%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.6%  
81 0.9% 99.1%  
82 2% 98%  
83 4% 96%  
84 7% 92%  
85 7% 84% Majority
86 6% 77%  
87 8% 71%  
88 17% 63%  
89 12% 46% Last Result
90 10% 35% Median
91 12% 24%  
92 4% 12%  
93 6% 9%  
94 1.4% 3%  
95 0.5% 1.4%  
96 0.6% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.2% 99.9%  
79 0.6% 99.7%  
80 1.1% 99.1%  
81 0.9% 98%  
82 1.2% 97%  
83 1.0% 96%  
84 5% 95%  
85 7% 90% Majority
86 10% 83%  
87 10% 73%  
88 26% 62% Last Result
89 17% 36% Median
90 6% 19%  
91 3% 12%  
92 4% 9%  
93 3% 5%  
94 1.0% 2%  
95 0.7% 1.4%  
96 0.3% 0.7%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0.1% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.9%  
78 0.3% 99.8%  
79 0.6% 99.5%  
80 1.1% 99.0%  
81 2% 98%  
82 5% 96%  
83 7% 91%  
84 9% 84%  
85 5% 75% Majority
86 10% 70%  
87 21% 61%  
88 6% 40% Last Result
89 12% 34% Median
90 10% 22%  
91 4% 12%  
92 5% 7%  
93 0.9% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.3%  
95 0.6% 0.9%  
96 0.2% 0.3%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.7%  
75 0.5% 99.1%  
76 0.9% 98.7%  
77 5% 98%  
78 4% 93%  
79 10% 88%  
80 12% 78%  
81 6% 66% Last Result
82 21% 60% Median
83 10% 39%  
84 5% 30%  
85 9% 25% Majority
86 7% 16%  
87 5% 9%  
88 2% 4%  
89 1.1% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.0%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.9%  
73 0.5% 99.7%  
74 0.5% 99.2%  
75 0.9% 98.7%  
76 6% 98%  
77 3% 92%  
78 10% 89%  
79 12% 79%  
80 6% 67% Last Result
81 21% 61% Median
82 9% 39%  
83 5% 30%  
84 9% 25%  
85 7% 16% Majority
86 5% 9%  
87 2% 4%  
88 1.0% 2%  
89 0.6% 1.0%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.6% 99.7%  
74 0.5% 99.1%  
75 1.4% 98.6%  
76 6% 97%  
77 4% 91%  
78 12% 88%  
79 10% 76%  
80 12% 65% Last Result
81 17% 54% Median
82 8% 37%  
83 6% 29%  
84 7% 23%  
85 7% 16% Majority
86 4% 8%  
87 2% 4%  
88 0.9% 2%  
89 0.5% 0.9%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.4% 99.6%  
73 0.7% 99.3%  
74 1.1% 98.6%  
75 3% 98%  
76 4% 95%  
77 4% 91%  
78 6% 87%  
79 17% 81%  
80 26% 64% Last Result
81 10% 38% Median
82 11% 28%  
83 8% 17%  
84 4% 10%  
85 1.2% 5% Majority
86 1.2% 4%  
87 0.9% 3%  
88 1.1% 2%  
89 0.6% 0.9%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.8%  
72 0.6% 99.7%  
73 0.5% 99.1%  
74 1.4% 98.6%  
75 6% 97%  
76 4% 91%  
77 11% 88%  
78 11% 76%  
79 12% 66% Last Result
80 17% 54% Median
81 8% 37%  
82 6% 29%  
83 8% 23%  
84 7% 15%  
85 4% 8% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 0.9% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.9%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 99.5%  
66 0.9% 99.0%  
67 1.4% 98%  
68 1.2% 97%  
69 4% 95%  
70 5% 91%  
71 7% 86%  
72 14% 79%  
73 16% 65%  
74 18% 49%  
75 9% 31% Median
76 10% 22%  
77 4% 12% Last Result
78 2% 8%  
79 3% 6%  
80 2% 3%  
81 0.4% 1.0%  
82 0.2% 0.6%  
83 0.2% 0.4%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.3% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.5%  
65 1.0% 99.0%  
66 1.4% 98%  
67 2% 97%  
68 4% 95%  
69 7% 91%  
70 8% 84%  
71 13% 76%  
72 19% 64%  
73 19% 45%  
74 6% 26% Median
75 8% 20%  
76 5% 12% Last Result
77 2% 7%  
78 3% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.3% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.5%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0.4% 99.9%  
64 0.5% 99.5%  
65 0.9% 99.0%  
66 0.9% 98%  
67 3% 97%  
68 4% 95%  
69 4% 90%  
70 10% 86%  
71 20% 75%  
72 21% 56% Last Result, Median
73 10% 34%  
74 9% 24%  
75 6% 15%  
76 2% 9%  
77 3% 7%  
78 1.5% 4%  
79 0.9% 2%  
80 0.9% 1.3%  
81 0.2% 0.4%  
82 0.1% 0.2%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.7%  
59 1.1% 99.4%  
60 2% 98%  
61 5% 96%  
62 5% 91%  
63 9% 86%  
64 14% 77%  
65 22% 63%  
66 6% 41% Median
67 10% 34%  
68 6% 24% Last Result
69 6% 18%  
70 8% 13%  
71 3% 5%  
72 0.6% 3%  
73 1.3% 2%  
74 0.4% 0.7%  
75 0.2% 0.3%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.3% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.4%  
55 0.6% 99.1%  
56 2% 98.5%  
57 3% 96%  
58 6% 93%  
59 6% 87%  
60 7% 81%  
61 15% 74% Last Result
62 16% 60%  
63 6% 44%  
64 11% 39% Median
65 14% 27%  
66 6% 14%  
67 4% 8%  
68 2% 4%  
69 0.8% 2%  
70 0.9% 1.4%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 0.8% 99.4%  
56 0.9% 98.6%  
57 3% 98%  
58 7% 95%  
59 11% 88%  
60 8% 77% Last Result
61 23% 68% Median
62 10% 45%  
63 14% 35%  
64 6% 21%  
65 6% 15%  
66 3% 8%  
67 3% 6%  
68 1.4% 2%  
69 0.4% 1.0%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0% 100%  
21 0.2% 99.9%  
22 0.1% 99.7%  
23 0.3% 99.6%  
24 0.4% 99.4%  
25 0.8% 99.0%  
26 1.2% 98%  
27 2% 97%  
28 2% 95%  
29 3% 93%  
30 9% 90%  
31 4% 81%  
32 17% 77%  
33 10% 60%  
34 16% 50%  
35 9% 34% Last Result
36 6% 25% Median
37 11% 19%  
38 4% 8%  
39 2% 3%  
40 0.8% 2%  
41 0.6% 0.8%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations