Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 2–3 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 29.1% 27.3–31.0% 26.8–31.5% 26.4–32.0% 25.5–32.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.2% 22.5–26.0% 22.1–26.5% 21.6–27.0% 20.9–27.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.5% 13.2–16.0% 12.8–16.4% 12.5–16.8% 11.8–17.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.3% 9.2–11.6% 8.8–12.0% 8.6–12.3% 8.0–13.0%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 5.7% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.1–7.9%
Venstre 4.4% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.6%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.2–4.4% 1.9–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 53 50–57 48–58 47–59 45–61
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–47 40–48 39–49 38–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–29 23–30 22–30 21–32
Senterpartiet 19 19 17–21 16–22 16–23 14–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 10 8–12 8–13 8–13 7–14
Venstre 8 9 3–10 2–11 2–11 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 2–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–3 1–7 1–8 0–9
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–6 1–8 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.1% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.8% Last Result
46 0.7% 99.4%  
47 1.3% 98.8%  
48 3% 97%  
49 3% 94%  
50 15% 91%  
51 9% 77%  
52 8% 67%  
53 20% 59% Median
54 12% 39%  
55 10% 27%  
56 4% 17%  
57 6% 13%  
58 2% 7%  
59 3% 4%  
60 0.4% 2%  
61 0.7% 1.1%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0.1% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.1% 99.9%  
38 0.8% 99.8%  
39 2% 99.0%  
40 7% 97%  
41 8% 90%  
42 10% 82%  
43 28% 72% Median
44 12% 44%  
45 10% 33%  
46 5% 22%  
47 10% 18%  
48 3% 7%  
49 2% 4% Last Result
50 0.5% 2%  
51 1.0% 2%  
52 0.5% 0.6%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.2% 99.9%  
21 0.9% 99.7%  
22 3% 98.8%  
23 4% 95%  
24 9% 91%  
25 21% 82%  
26 18% 61% Median
27 23% 43% Last Result
28 10% 20%  
29 5% 10%  
30 4% 6%  
31 2% 2%  
32 0.4% 0.5%  
33 0.1% 0.2%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.8%  
15 1.0% 99.4%  
16 4% 98%  
17 18% 95%  
18 21% 77%  
19 36% 56% Last Result, Median
20 9% 20%  
21 3% 11%  
22 5% 8%  
23 2% 3%  
24 0.5% 0.9%  
25 0.4% 0.4%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 0.3% 99.9%  
3 0% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.6%  
5 0% 99.6%  
6 0% 99.6%  
7 0.7% 99.6%  
8 10% 98.9%  
9 24% 89%  
10 31% 65% Median
11 16% 34% Last Result
12 12% 18%  
13 5% 6%  
14 0.9% 1.3%  
15 0.4% 0.4%  
16 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 9% 100%  
3 2% 91%  
4 0% 90%  
5 0% 90%  
6 0% 90%  
7 2% 90%  
8 18% 87% Last Result
9 40% 69% Median
10 21% 29%  
11 7% 8%  
12 0.9% 1.1%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 9% 100% Last Result
2 43% 91% Median
3 5% 48%  
4 0% 42%  
5 0% 42%  
6 0.1% 42%  
7 16% 42%  
8 19% 26%  
9 6% 7%  
10 0.9% 1.1%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100%  
1 24% 98.5%  
2 16% 75%  
3 50% 59% Median
4 0% 9%  
5 0% 9%  
6 0% 9%  
7 4% 9%  
8 4% 5% Last Result
9 0.6% 0.7%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 44% 100% Last Result
2 51% 56% Median
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0.1% 5%  
7 2% 5%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.3% 0.3%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 109 100% 105–113 103–114 102–115 98–117
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 89 95 99.6% 90–98 88–99 87–100 85–102
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 90 95% 86–95 85–96 83–97 81–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 88 84% 83–92 81–93 80–94 78–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 80 8% 75–84 74–86 73–87 71–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 79 7% 76–84 74–85 73–86 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 79 5% 74–83 73–84 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 77 2% 73–81 71–82 70–84 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 74 0.4% 71–79 70–81 69–82 67–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 72 0.1% 69–77 68–78 67–79 65–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti 77 70 0% 65–74 63–76 63–76 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 65 0% 61–69 60–71 59–72 58–75
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 65 0% 60–68 58–69 57–71 54–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 62 0% 59–66 58–67 57–69 56–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 53 0% 50–58 50–59 49–61 47–63
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 30 0% 26–33 24–35 22–36 20–38

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.4% 99.8%  
99 0.2% 99.4%  
100 0.2% 99.1%  
101 1.2% 98.9%  
102 1.5% 98%  
103 3% 96%  
104 3% 94%  
105 3% 91%  
106 6% 87%  
107 16% 82% Last Result
108 7% 66%  
109 22% 59%  
110 4% 36% Median
111 9% 33%  
112 10% 24%  
113 4% 13%  
114 5% 10%  
115 3% 5%  
116 1.3% 2%  
117 0.4% 0.7%  
118 0.2% 0.3%  
119 0.1% 0.1%  
120 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.7% 99.6% Majority
86 0.5% 98.9%  
87 1.4% 98%  
88 2% 97%  
89 3% 95% Last Result
90 2% 92%  
91 8% 89%  
92 5% 81%  
93 9% 76% Median
94 7% 67%  
95 14% 60%  
96 16% 46%  
97 14% 31%  
98 7% 16%  
99 5% 9%  
100 2% 5%  
101 2% 2%  
102 0.3% 0.5%  
103 0.1% 0.2%  
104 0.1% 0.1%  
105 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.7%  
81 0.5% 99.5%  
82 0.7% 99.0%  
83 1.3% 98%  
84 2% 97%  
85 3% 95% Majority
86 4% 92%  
87 7% 88%  
88 12% 82% Last Result
89 11% 70%  
90 17% 60%  
91 10% 43% Median
92 4% 33%  
93 14% 29%  
94 5% 15%  
95 4% 10%  
96 3% 6%  
97 1.0% 3%  
98 1.2% 2%  
99 0.4% 0.6%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.2% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.8%  
77 0.2% 99.7%  
78 0.8% 99.5%  
79 0.6% 98.7%  
80 2% 98% Last Result
81 1.5% 96%  
82 3% 95%  
83 3% 92%  
84 5% 89%  
85 8% 84% Majority
86 14% 76%  
87 12% 62%  
88 16% 50% Median
89 5% 35%  
90 12% 29%  
91 3% 17%  
92 5% 14%  
93 4% 8%  
94 2% 4%  
95 1.3% 2%  
96 0.5% 0.9%  
97 0.2% 0.4%  
98 0.1% 0.1%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.4% 99.7%  
72 2% 99.3%  
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 96%  
75 7% 93%  
76 3% 86%  
77 13% 84% Median
78 6% 71%  
79 14% 65%  
80 8% 52%  
81 13% 43%  
82 13% 30%  
83 7% 18%  
84 3% 11%  
85 2% 8% Majority
86 2% 6%  
87 1.5% 3%  
88 1.1% 2% Last Result
89 0.4% 0.7%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 0.5% 99.6%  
72 1.1% 99.1% Last Result
73 2% 98%  
74 3% 96%  
75 2% 93%  
76 8% 90%  
77 14% 83%  
78 16% 69%  
79 14% 52% Median
80 11% 38%  
81 8% 28%  
82 4% 19%  
83 5% 15%  
84 3% 10%  
85 3% 7% Majority
86 1.2% 4%  
87 1.4% 2%  
88 0.6% 1.1%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0% 0.3%  
91 0.3% 0.3%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.8%  
71 1.2% 99.4%  
72 1.0% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 4% 94%  
75 5% 90%  
76 14% 85% Median
77 4% 71%  
78 10% 67%  
79 17% 57%  
80 11% 40%  
81 12% 30% Last Result
82 7% 18%  
83 4% 12%  
84 3% 8%  
85 2% 5% Majority
86 1.3% 3%  
87 0.7% 2%  
88 0.5% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.4% 99.8%  
69 1.4% 99.4%  
70 1.1% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 4% 94%  
73 4% 90%  
74 15% 87% Median
75 5% 72%  
76 10% 67%  
77 9% 56%  
78 16% 48%  
79 8% 32%  
80 14% 24% Last Result
81 3% 11%  
82 3% 7%  
83 2% 4%  
84 1.0% 3%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.3% 99.8%  
68 2% 99.5%  
69 2% 98%  
70 5% 95%  
71 7% 91%  
72 14% 84%  
73 16% 69%  
74 14% 54% Median
75 7% 40%  
76 9% 33%  
77 5% 24%  
78 8% 19%  
79 2% 11%  
80 3% 8% Last Result
81 2% 5%  
82 1.4% 3%  
83 0.5% 2%  
84 0.7% 1.1%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.2% 99.9%  
65 0.5% 99.7%  
66 0.7% 99.2%  
67 3% 98.5%  
68 3% 95%  
69 8% 92%  
70 7% 85%  
71 17% 78%  
72 21% 61% Median
73 8% 40%  
74 11% 33%  
75 5% 22%  
76 6% 18%  
77 5% 12%  
78 3% 7%  
79 2% 4% Last Result
80 1.1% 2%  
81 0.4% 1.2%  
82 0.2% 0.9%  
83 0.6% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.8%  
61 2% 99.6%  
62 0.5% 98%  
63 3% 98%  
64 4% 95%  
65 4% 91%  
66 4% 87%  
67 12% 83% Median
68 6% 70%  
69 10% 64%  
70 13% 54%  
71 9% 41%  
72 15% 32%  
73 4% 16%  
74 5% 12%  
75 2% 7%  
76 4% 5%  
77 0.7% 2% Last Result
78 0.4% 0.9%  
79 0.3% 0.5%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.3% 99.9%  
58 1.1% 99.6%  
59 2% 98.5%  
60 3% 97%  
61 5% 94%  
62 11% 88%  
63 6% 77%  
64 11% 71%  
65 21% 60% Median
66 5% 39%  
67 8% 33%  
68 13% 25%  
69 5% 12%  
70 1.3% 7%  
71 2% 6%  
72 1.5% 3%  
73 0.5% 2%  
74 0.7% 1.5%  
75 0.6% 0.8%  
76 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.1% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 0.2% 99.2%  
56 0.8% 98.9%  
57 2% 98%  
58 2% 96%  
59 2% 94%  
60 4% 93%  
61 15% 89% Last Result
62 7% 73%  
63 7% 66%  
64 4% 59%  
65 16% 55% Median
66 18% 38%  
67 6% 20%  
68 5% 15%  
69 5% 10%  
70 1.1% 4%  
71 2% 3%  
72 0.9% 1.4%  
73 0.3% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.5% 99.7%  
57 2% 99.1%  
58 4% 97%  
59 10% 93%  
60 6% 83%  
61 10% 77%  
62 30% 67% Median
63 4% 38%  
64 7% 34%  
65 17% 27%  
66 5% 10%  
67 2% 6%  
68 1.3% 4% Last Result
69 1.1% 3%  
70 0.6% 2%  
71 0.9% 1.1%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9%  
46 0.2% 99.9%  
47 0.3% 99.7%  
48 0.9% 99.4%  
49 3% 98%  
50 6% 96%  
51 8% 89%  
52 16% 81%  
53 19% 65% Median
54 13% 47%  
55 7% 33%  
56 8% 26%  
57 6% 18%  
58 5% 12%  
59 4% 7%  
60 0.8% 3% Last Result
61 0.9% 3%  
62 1.0% 2%  
63 0.6% 0.8%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.9% 99.9%  
21 1.2% 99.0%  
22 1.1% 98%  
23 1.0% 97%  
24 2% 96%  
25 3% 94%  
26 4% 91%  
27 7% 87%  
28 7% 80%  
29 6% 73%  
30 24% 67%  
31 17% 43% Median
32 12% 25%  
33 4% 13%  
34 2% 9%  
35 2% 7% Last Result
36 2% 5%  
37 2% 2%  
38 0.4% 0.5%  
39 0.1% 0.2%  
40 0.1% 0.1%  
41 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations