Opinion Poll by Norstat, 2–8 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 28.7% 26.9–30.6% 26.3–31.1% 25.9–31.6% 25.1–32.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 20.1% 18.5–21.8% 18.0–22.3% 17.7–22.7% 16.9–23.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.9% 13.6–16.5% 13.2–16.9% 12.8–17.3% 12.2–18.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.2% 10.9–13.6% 10.6–14.0% 10.3–14.4% 9.7–15.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.3% 7.3–9.5% 7.0–9.9% 6.7–10.2% 6.2–10.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.5–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Venstre 4.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Rødt 2.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.7–4.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 53 49–55 48–57 47–58 45–60
Arbeiderpartiet 49 37 34–41 33–41 32–42 31–43
Fremskrittspartiet 27 28 25–30 24–31 23–32 22–33
Senterpartiet 19 22 20–25 19–26 19–27 17–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 13–17 13–18 12–19 11–20
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–11 3–11 1–12
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–9 2–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–2 1–7 1–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.4% 99.7% Last Result
46 2% 99.3%  
47 2% 98%  
48 5% 95%  
49 7% 91%  
50 10% 83%  
51 13% 73%  
52 8% 60%  
53 10% 52% Median
54 10% 42%  
55 23% 32%  
56 3% 9%  
57 3% 6%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.7% 1.3%  
60 0.2% 0.5%  
61 0.2% 0.3%  
62 0.1% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
29 0.1% 100%  
30 0.4% 99.9%  
31 2% 99.5%  
32 1.5% 98%  
33 2% 96%  
34 4% 94%  
35 7% 90%  
36 26% 82%  
37 24% 56% Median
38 9% 33%  
39 8% 23%  
40 5% 16%  
41 7% 10%  
42 2% 3%  
43 1.1% 1.3%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.2% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.7%  
23 2% 99.1%  
24 5% 97%  
25 9% 92%  
26 20% 83%  
27 12% 63% Last Result
28 17% 51% Median
29 16% 34%  
30 8% 17%  
31 7% 9%  
32 2% 3%  
33 0.5% 0.9%  
34 0.3% 0.4%  
35 0% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.9%  
18 1.2% 99.3%  
19 7% 98% Last Result
20 9% 91%  
21 13% 82%  
22 28% 69% Median
23 21% 42%  
24 7% 20%  
25 8% 14%  
26 3% 6%  
27 2% 3%  
28 0.4% 0.6%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.2% 100%  
11 0.7% 99.8% Last Result
12 4% 99.1%  
13 10% 95%  
14 16% 85%  
15 18% 69%  
16 23% 51% Median
17 18% 28%  
18 7% 10%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.5% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.5% 100%  
2 0.8% 99.5%  
3 21% 98.7%  
4 0% 77%  
5 0% 77%  
6 0% 77%  
7 3% 77%  
8 29% 74% Last Result, Median
9 24% 45%  
10 13% 21%  
11 7% 9%  
12 1.3% 1.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.6% 100%  
2 58% 99.4% Median
3 18% 42%  
4 0% 24%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0% 24%  
7 6% 24%  
8 12% 18% Last Result
9 5% 6%  
10 0.7% 0.8%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 41% 100% Last Result
2 56% 59% Median
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 2% 4%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 68% 97% Last Result, Median
2 26% 28%  
3 0.8% 2%  
4 0% 1.5%  
5 0% 1.5%  
6 0% 1.5%  
7 0.8% 1.5%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 113 100% 109–117 108–118 107–120 105–121
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 93 99.3% 89–96 87–98 86–99 84–101
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 91 98% 87–95 86–96 85–97 83–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 83 40% 79–88 78–89 77–91 75–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 84 36% 79–89 78–90 77–90 75–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 81 6% 75–84 74–85 73–86 71–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 78 2% 74–82 73–83 72–84 69–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 76 0.7% 73–80 71–82 70–83 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 76 0.4% 72–80 71–81 70–82 68–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.1% 71–79 70–80 69–81 67–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 68 0% 64–73 62–74 62–75 60–77
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 67 0% 63–71 61–72 61–74 59–75
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 64 0% 59–68 58–69 57–70 54–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 59 0% 56–63 55–64 54–65 52–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 56 0% 52–60 51–61 49–62 48–64
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 52 0% 49–56 48–57 47–58 45–60
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 33 0% 29–38 27–40 27–41 25–43

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.2% 99.9%  
105 0.3% 99.7%  
106 1.4% 99.4%  
107 0.6% 98% Last Result
108 2% 97%  
109 6% 95%  
110 6% 89%  
111 7% 82%  
112 7% 76%  
113 23% 68% Median
114 11% 46%  
115 10% 35%  
116 8% 25%  
117 10% 16%  
118 2% 6%  
119 2% 4%  
120 2% 3%  
121 0.4% 0.9%  
122 0.3% 0.5%  
123 0.1% 0.2%  
124 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0.1% 100%  
83 0.2% 99.9%  
84 0.4% 99.6%  
85 1.4% 99.3% Majority
86 1.3% 98%  
87 3% 97%  
88 3% 94%  
89 8% 90% Last Result
90 7% 82%  
91 12% 75%  
92 13% 63% Median
93 15% 50%  
94 7% 36%  
95 11% 29%  
96 9% 18%  
97 3% 9%  
98 3% 5%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.4% 1.0%  
101 0.3% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.3%  
103 0.2% 0.2%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.3% 99.8%  
83 0.6% 99.6%  
84 1.4% 99.0%  
85 1.4% 98% Majority
86 4% 96%  
87 5% 92%  
88 9% 88% Last Result
89 5% 78%  
90 14% 73%  
91 16% 59% Median
92 10% 43%  
93 9% 33%  
94 9% 25%  
95 8% 15%  
96 3% 8%  
97 2% 5%  
98 1.0% 2%  
99 0.5% 1.1%  
100 0.3% 0.6%  
101 0.1% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.7%  
75 0.3% 99.6%  
76 0.8% 99.3%  
77 3% 98.5%  
78 4% 95%  
79 7% 92%  
80 3% 85% Last Result
81 7% 82%  
82 8% 75%  
83 19% 67% Median
84 8% 48%  
85 12% 40% Majority
86 5% 28%  
87 12% 23%  
88 3% 11%  
89 3% 8%  
90 2% 4%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.5% 0.9%  
93 0.3% 0.4%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.7%  
76 1.2% 99.3%  
77 2% 98%  
78 4% 96%  
79 3% 93%  
80 6% 89%  
81 10% 83%  
82 12% 73%  
83 6% 61%  
84 19% 54% Median
85 10% 36% Majority
86 6% 26%  
87 4% 20%  
88 6% 16% Last Result
89 4% 10%  
90 5% 6%  
91 1.1% 2%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 1.0% 99.5% Last Result
73 2% 98.5%  
74 4% 97%  
75 6% 93%  
76 6% 87%  
77 8% 81%  
78 6% 73%  
79 6% 67%  
80 7% 61%  
81 21% 53% Median
82 7% 32%  
83 8% 25%  
84 10% 17%  
85 3% 6% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.5% 2%  
88 0.7% 1.1%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.3% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.4%  
71 1.0% 98.9%  
72 2% 98%  
73 3% 95%  
74 8% 92%  
75 9% 85%  
76 9% 75%  
77 10% 67%  
78 16% 57% Median
79 14% 41%  
80 5% 27%  
81 9% 22% Last Result
82 5% 12%  
83 4% 7%  
84 1.4% 4%  
85 1.4% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.0%  
87 0.3% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.4%  
70 2% 99.0%  
71 3% 97%  
72 3% 95%  
73 9% 91%  
74 11% 82%  
75 7% 71%  
76 15% 64%  
77 13% 49% Median
78 12% 37%  
79 7% 25%  
80 8% 18% Last Result
81 3% 10%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 1.4% 2%  
85 0.4% 0.7% Majority
86 0.2% 0.3%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.2% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.8%  
68 0.7% 99.5%  
69 0.7% 98.8%  
70 1.4% 98%  
71 4% 97%  
72 4% 93%  
73 12% 89%  
74 10% 77%  
75 9% 67%  
76 18% 59% Median
77 7% 41%  
78 11% 33%  
79 8% 23%  
80 7% 14% Last Result
81 3% 7%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.5% 0.9%  
85 0.3% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0.1% 100%  
65 0.2% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.7%  
67 0.5% 99.5%  
68 1.0% 99.0%  
69 2% 98%  
70 4% 96%  
71 4% 92%  
72 14% 87%  
73 10% 73%  
74 13% 64%  
75 13% 51% Median
76 7% 38%  
77 13% 31%  
78 7% 18%  
79 6% 11% Last Result
80 2% 5%  
81 2% 4%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.4% 0.7%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.8%  
61 1.3% 99.2%  
62 5% 98%  
63 2% 93%  
64 8% 91%  
65 6% 82%  
66 5% 77%  
67 8% 72%  
68 19% 64% Median
69 9% 44%  
70 11% 36%  
71 8% 25%  
72 5% 16%  
73 4% 11%  
74 3% 7%  
75 3% 5%  
76 1.3% 2%  
77 0.4% 0.6% Last Result
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.2% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.6%  
60 1.3% 99.1%  
61 5% 98%  
62 2% 93%  
63 10% 91%  
64 6% 80%  
65 6% 74%  
66 13% 68%  
67 12% 54% Median
68 9% 42%  
69 10% 33%  
70 9% 23%  
71 5% 14%  
72 4% 9%  
73 2% 5%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.6% 0.9%  
76 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.4% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.5%  
56 0.5% 99.0%  
57 2% 98.6%  
58 2% 96%  
59 5% 94%  
60 3% 89%  
61 18% 86% Last Result
62 9% 67%  
63 6% 59% Median
64 8% 52%  
65 14% 45%  
66 10% 30%  
67 6% 21%  
68 6% 14%  
69 5% 9%  
70 2% 4%  
71 1.2% 2%  
72 0.6% 1.1%  
73 0.4% 0.5%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0% 100%  
51 0.3% 99.9%  
52 0.5% 99.6%  
53 0.7% 99.1%  
54 1.4% 98%  
55 4% 97%  
56 6% 93%  
57 5% 87%  
58 28% 82%  
59 11% 54% Median
60 16% 43%  
61 7% 27%  
62 6% 19%  
63 5% 14%  
64 4% 8%  
65 2% 4%  
66 1.5% 2%  
67 0.5% 0.8%  
68 0.2% 0.3% Last Result
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0.2% 100%  
47 0.3% 99.8%  
48 0.4% 99.5%  
49 2% 99.1%  
50 2% 97%  
51 2% 96%  
52 10% 94%  
53 8% 84%  
54 10% 75%  
55 11% 65%  
56 23% 54% Median
57 7% 31%  
58 7% 24%  
59 6% 18%  
60 6% 11%  
61 2% 5%  
62 0.6% 3% Last Result
63 1.4% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.3% 99.9%  
45 0.6% 99.6%  
46 1.0% 99.0%  
47 2% 98%  
48 2% 96%  
49 7% 93%  
50 13% 87%  
51 9% 74%  
52 19% 65%  
53 10% 46% Median
54 15% 36%  
55 6% 21%  
56 5% 15%  
57 7% 10%  
58 1.3% 3%  
59 0.6% 2%  
60 0.7% 1.0% Last Result
61 0.3% 0.3%  
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0% 100%  
24 0.3% 99.9%  
25 1.2% 99.6%  
26 0.8% 98%  
27 3% 98%  
28 2% 95%  
29 9% 93%  
30 3% 84%  
31 8% 81%  
32 14% 73% Median
33 12% 59%  
34 12% 46%  
35 6% 34% Last Result
36 8% 28%  
37 6% 20%  
38 4% 14%  
39 4% 10%  
40 2% 6%  
41 1.3% 3%  
42 2% 2%  
43 0.3% 0.6%  
44 0.2% 0.2%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations