Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 3–9 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 30.5% 28.5–32.7% 27.9–33.3% 27.4–33.8% 26.4–34.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 19.4% 17.6–21.3% 17.1–21.8% 16.7–22.3% 15.9–23.2%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.7% 13.2–16.5% 12.8–17.0% 12.4–17.4% 11.7–18.3%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.9% 9.6–12.5% 9.2–12.9% 8.9–13.3% 8.3–14.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.6% 7.4–10.0% 7.1–10.4% 6.8–10.8% 6.3–11.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.5% 3.7–5.6% 3.4–5.9% 3.2–6.2% 2.9–6.8%
Venstre 4.4% 4.4% 3.6–5.5% 3.3–5.8% 3.1–6.0% 2.8–6.6%
Rødt 2.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.9% 2.1–4.2% 2.0–4.4% 1.7–4.9%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.6% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.7–3.9% 1.4–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 55 51–59 50–60 49–61 47–64
Arbeiderpartiet 49 36 32–39 31–40 30–41 28–42
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 24–30 23–31 22–31 20–33
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–23 16–23 16–24 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 13–18 12–19 12–20 11–21
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 2–11 2–11 1–12
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 1–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 0–2 0–2 0–2 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.1% 99.9% Last Result
46 0.3% 99.8%  
47 0.9% 99.5%  
48 0.9% 98.6%  
49 3% 98%  
50 3% 95%  
51 4% 92%  
52 8% 88%  
53 15% 80%  
54 12% 64%  
55 14% 52% Median
56 11% 38%  
57 5% 27%  
58 10% 22%  
59 3% 12%  
60 5% 9%  
61 2% 4%  
62 0.8% 2%  
63 0.4% 0.9%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0.2% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
27 0.1% 100%  
28 0.5% 99.8%  
29 0.8% 99.3%  
30 3% 98%  
31 4% 96%  
32 4% 91%  
33 9% 88%  
34 8% 79%  
35 16% 71%  
36 22% 56% Median
37 15% 34%  
38 6% 20%  
39 7% 13%  
40 3% 6%  
41 2% 3%  
42 0.7% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  
46 0% 0%  
47 0% 0%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
19 0.1% 100%  
20 0.6% 99.9%  
21 0.9% 99.3%  
22 2% 98%  
23 3% 96%  
24 13% 93%  
25 15% 79%  
26 19% 64% Median
27 13% 45% Last Result
28 10% 32%  
29 11% 22%  
30 6% 12%  
31 4% 6%  
32 1.1% 2%  
33 0.3% 0.8%  
34 0.4% 0.5%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 1.3% 99.6%  
16 4% 98%  
17 10% 94%  
18 16% 84%  
19 17% 68% Last Result
20 21% 51% Median
21 10% 30%  
22 8% 20%  
23 8% 12%  
24 2% 3%  
25 1.3% 2%  
26 0.2% 0.4%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
10 0.1% 100%  
11 1.1% 99.9% Last Result
12 5% 98.8%  
13 10% 94%  
14 18% 84%  
15 13% 67%  
16 25% 53% Median
17 17% 29%  
18 5% 11%  
19 4% 6%  
20 2% 3%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 2% 100%  
2 6% 98%  
3 14% 93%  
4 0% 79%  
5 0% 79%  
6 0% 79%  
7 10% 79%  
8 26% 69% Last Result, Median
9 26% 43%  
10 11% 16%  
11 4% 5%  
12 0.7% 0.9%  
13 0.2% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 29% 100%  
3 3% 71%  
4 0% 68%  
5 0% 68%  
6 0% 68%  
7 12% 68%  
8 29% 56% Last Result, Median
9 16% 27%  
10 6% 11%  
11 3% 4%  
12 1.1% 1.2%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 41% 100% Last Result
2 53% 59% Median
3 0% 6%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0.1% 6%  
7 3% 6%  
8 2% 3%  
9 0.2% 0.3%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100%  
1 64% 90% Last Result, Median
2 24% 26%  
3 0.2% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0.1% 2%  
7 1.3% 2%  
8 0.4% 0.5%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 115 100% 111–119 109–120 108–121 105–123
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 97 99.8% 92–101 91–102 89–103 87–106
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 95 99.6% 91–100 89–101 88–102 85–105
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 88 82% 83–93 82–94 80–95 78–98
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 81 23% 77–86 75–87 74–89 72–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 80 10% 74–85 73–85 72–86 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 74 0.4% 69–78 68–80 67–81 64–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 72 0.2% 68–77 67–78 66–80 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 72 0% 68–77 66–78 66–79 63–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 70 0% 66–75 65–76 64–77 62–80
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 69 0% 64–73 63–74 61–75 59–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 64 0% 59–68 57–69 56–71 54–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 63 0% 57–67 56–68 55–69 53–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 55 0% 52–59 50–60 49–61 47–63
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 51 0% 47–55 46–57 45–58 43–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 28–38 27–40 26–40 23–42

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
102 0.1% 100%  
103 0.1% 99.9%  
104 0.1% 99.8%  
105 0.2% 99.7%  
106 0.3% 99.5%  
107 1.2% 99.1% Last Result
108 2% 98%  
109 3% 96%  
110 3% 93%  
111 5% 90%  
112 7% 85%  
113 12% 78%  
114 8% 66%  
115 13% 57%  
116 14% 45%  
117 14% 31% Median
118 5% 17%  
119 5% 12%  
120 2% 6%  
121 3% 4%  
122 0.6% 2%  
123 0.7% 1.0%  
124 0.3% 0.4%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0.1%  
127 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
84 0.1% 100%  
85 0.2% 99.8% Majority
86 0.1% 99.7%  
87 0.3% 99.6%  
88 0.7% 99.3%  
89 1.2% 98.5% Last Result
90 2% 97%  
91 3% 95%  
92 3% 92%  
93 10% 89%  
94 5% 79%  
95 8% 74%  
96 15% 66%  
97 13% 51%  
98 12% 38% Median
99 12% 26%  
100 3% 14%  
101 4% 11%  
102 2% 7%  
103 2% 4%  
104 1.5% 2%  
105 0.3% 0.8%  
106 0.4% 0.6%  
107 0.1% 0.2%  
108 0% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
82 0% 100%  
83 0.1% 99.9%  
84 0.2% 99.8%  
85 0.3% 99.6% Majority
86 0.5% 99.3%  
87 1.0% 98.9%  
88 1.1% 98% Last Result
89 2% 97%  
90 5% 95%  
91 3% 90%  
92 9% 87%  
93 6% 78%  
94 9% 72%  
95 16% 63%  
96 12% 47%  
97 15% 35% Median
98 8% 20%  
99 2% 13%  
100 4% 10%  
101 2% 6%  
102 3% 4%  
103 0.7% 1.5%  
104 0.2% 0.7%  
105 0.4% 0.5%  
106 0.1% 0.2%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0.1% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.3% 99.7%  
79 0.4% 99.4%  
80 2% 99.0% Last Result
81 2% 97%  
82 5% 95%  
83 4% 91%  
84 5% 87%  
85 5% 82% Majority
86 11% 77%  
87 14% 66%  
88 16% 52%  
89 7% 36% Median
90 8% 29%  
91 3% 21%  
92 6% 18%  
93 6% 12%  
94 3% 7%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.5% 2%  
97 1.0% 2%  
98 0.2% 0.7%  
99 0.4% 0.5%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.7% Last Result
73 1.1% 99.1%  
74 1.3% 98%  
75 3% 97%  
76 4% 94%  
77 5% 90%  
78 7% 85%  
79 13% 79%  
80 14% 66%  
81 6% 52% Median
82 9% 46%  
83 6% 37%  
84 8% 31%  
85 8% 23% Majority
86 7% 15%  
87 3% 7%  
88 1.0% 5%  
89 1.4% 4%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.1% 1.4%  
92 1.0% 1.3%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.8%  
70 0.5% 99.2%  
71 1.1% 98.8%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 3% 97%  
74 4% 93%  
75 6% 89%  
76 6% 83%  
77 4% 77%  
78 10% 73%  
79 13% 64%  
80 18% 51%  
81 8% 33% Median
82 6% 25%  
83 5% 19%  
84 4% 14%  
85 5% 10% Majority
86 2% 5%  
87 1.2% 2%  
88 0.8% 1.2% Last Result
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.2% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.8%  
65 0.2% 99.5%  
66 0.7% 99.3%  
67 3% 98.5%  
68 2% 96%  
69 4% 94%  
70 2% 90%  
71 8% 87%  
72 15% 80%  
73 12% 65%  
74 16% 53%  
75 9% 37% Median
76 6% 28%  
77 9% 22%  
78 3% 13%  
79 5% 10%  
80 2% 5%  
81 1.1% 3% Last Result
82 1.0% 2%  
83 0.5% 1.1%  
84 0.3% 0.7%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.9%  
63 0.4% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.4%  
65 1.5% 99.2%  
66 2% 98%  
67 2% 96%  
68 4% 93%  
69 3% 89%  
70 12% 86%  
71 12% 74%  
72 13% 62%  
73 15% 49%  
74 8% 34% Median
75 5% 26%  
76 10% 21%  
77 3% 11%  
78 3% 8%  
79 2% 5%  
80 1.2% 3% Last Result
81 0.7% 1.5%  
82 0.3% 0.7%  
83 0.1% 0.4%  
84 0.2% 0.3%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.5% 99.7%  
64 0.5% 99.2%  
65 1.0% 98.7%  
66 4% 98%  
67 3% 94%  
68 5% 91%  
69 6% 86%  
70 13% 80%  
71 13% 68%  
72 17% 54%  
73 11% 38% Median
74 5% 26%  
75 7% 22%  
76 5% 15%  
77 4% 10%  
78 3% 6%  
79 1.5% 3%  
80 0.5% 2% Last Result
81 0.5% 1.1%  
82 0.5% 0.7%  
83 0% 0.2%  
84 0.1% 0.1%  
85 0% 0% Majority

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.9%  
62 0.7% 99.6%  
63 0.3% 98.9%  
64 2% 98.6%  
65 3% 97%  
66 4% 94%  
67 5% 90%  
68 10% 85%  
69 8% 75%  
70 17% 67%  
71 15% 50%  
72 9% 34% Median
73 4% 25%  
74 8% 21%  
75 5% 13%  
76 4% 8%  
77 2% 5%  
78 1.2% 2%  
79 0.6% 1.2% Last Result
80 0.4% 0.6%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0.1% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.1% 99.8%  
58 0.1% 99.7%  
59 0.6% 99.6%  
60 1.0% 99.0%  
61 1.4% 98% Last Result
62 1.3% 97%  
63 3% 95%  
64 4% 92%  
65 8% 89%  
66 9% 81%  
67 6% 72%  
68 6% 66%  
69 17% 59%  
70 11% 43%  
71 14% 32% Median
72 5% 17%  
73 4% 12%  
74 3% 8%  
75 2% 4%  
76 1.2% 2%  
77 0.5% 1.0%  
78 0.2% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.3%  
80 0.2% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.8%  
54 0.4% 99.6%  
55 0.8% 99.3%  
56 1.1% 98%  
57 4% 97%  
58 3% 94%  
59 5% 91%  
60 4% 86%  
61 6% 82%  
62 8% 76%  
63 12% 68%  
64 14% 56%  
65 9% 43% Median
66 7% 34%  
67 11% 27%  
68 8% 16%  
69 3% 8%  
70 2% 5%  
71 1.5% 3%  
72 0.4% 1.1%  
73 0.2% 0.7%  
74 0.4% 0.5%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  
77 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.2% 99.8%  
53 0.4% 99.6%  
54 0.5% 99.2%  
55 2% 98.7%  
56 3% 97%  
57 5% 94%  
58 5% 89%  
59 4% 84%  
60 5% 81%  
61 8% 75%  
62 13% 67%  
63 17% 55%  
64 6% 38% Median
65 10% 32%  
66 7% 22%  
67 7% 15%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.2% 2%  
71 0.3% 0.8%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.4% 0.4%  
74 0% 0%  
75 0% 0%  
76 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.1% 100%  
46 0.3% 99.9%  
47 0.6% 99.6%  
48 1.3% 99.0%  
49 2% 98%  
50 2% 95%  
51 3% 93%  
52 6% 90%  
53 9% 84%  
54 18% 76%  
55 14% 58%  
56 12% 44% Median
57 11% 32%  
58 6% 21%  
59 8% 15%  
60 2% 7%  
61 2% 4%  
62 1.1% 2%  
63 0.8% 1.2%  
64 0.3% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.1%  
66 0% 0%  
67 0% 0%  
68 0% 0% Last Result

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.3% 99.9%  
43 0.4% 99.6%  
44 1.1% 99.3%  
45 2% 98%  
46 2% 96%  
47 5% 94%  
48 7% 89%  
49 14% 82%  
50 17% 68%  
51 6% 50%  
52 12% 44% Median
53 12% 32%  
54 6% 20%  
55 6% 14%  
56 2% 8%  
57 2% 5%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.9% 1.2%  
60 0.1% 0.3% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.2% 99.8%  
23 0.6% 99.6%  
24 0.4% 99.0%  
25 0.6% 98.6%  
26 2% 98%  
27 2% 96%  
28 6% 94%  
29 3% 88%  
30 9% 84%  
31 9% 76%  
32 6% 67%  
33 9% 61%  
34 10% 52%  
35 7% 42% Last Result
36 9% 35% Median
37 12% 26%  
38 5% 13%  
39 2% 9%  
40 4% 6%  
41 0.8% 2%  
42 0.6% 0.9%  
43 0.2% 0.3%  
44 0.1% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations