Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 8–10 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.2% 25.2–29.2% 24.7–29.8% 24.2–30.3% 23.3–31.4%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.1% 21.3–25.1% 20.7–25.6% 20.3–26.1% 19.5–27.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 15.6% 14.0–17.3% 13.6–17.8% 13.2–18.2% 12.5–19.1%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.7% 9.4–12.3% 9.1–12.7% 8.8–13.1% 8.2–13.8%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.7% 6.6–9.0% 6.3–9.4% 6.0–9.7% 5.5–10.4%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.7% 2.6–6.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.1% 3.3–5.1% 3.1–5.4% 2.9–5.7% 2.6–6.2%
Rødt 2.4% 2.7% 2.1–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.8–4.1% 1.5–4.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.6% 1.9–3.9% 1.8–4.1% 1.5–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 49 44–52 43–55 43–58 42–60
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 40–46 39–47 38–48 35–49
Fremskrittspartiet 27 28 25–32 25–33 24–33 22–35
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–22 17–22 16–23 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–17 11–18 11–19 10–19
Venstre 8 3 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–12
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 2–9 2–10 1–11 1–11
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–7 1–7 1–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
39 0.1% 100%  
40 0.1% 99.9%  
41 0.2% 99.9%  
42 0.9% 99.6%  
43 5% 98.8%  
44 5% 94%  
45 7% 89% Last Result
46 6% 82%  
47 6% 75%  
48 13% 69%  
49 17% 56% Median
50 5% 39%  
51 16% 35%  
52 10% 18%  
53 1.0% 8%  
54 2% 7%  
55 2% 6%  
56 0.3% 3%  
57 0.2% 3%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.3% 1.0%  
60 0.7% 0.7%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0.1% 100%  
35 0.4% 99.8%  
36 0.6% 99.4%  
37 0.8% 98.8%  
38 1.1% 98%  
39 2% 97%  
40 9% 95%  
41 17% 85%  
42 8% 68%  
43 10% 60%  
44 9% 50% Median
45 14% 42%  
46 21% 28%  
47 3% 7%  
48 3% 4%  
49 1.0% 1.4% Last Result
50 0.2% 0.4%  
51 0.1% 0.2%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0% 100%  
22 0.7% 99.9%  
23 0.3% 99.3%  
24 3% 99.0%  
25 15% 96%  
26 8% 81%  
27 19% 73% Last Result
28 16% 54% Median
29 1.2% 38%  
30 8% 37%  
31 7% 29%  
32 14% 22%  
33 7% 8%  
34 1.3% 2%  
35 0.4% 0.5%  
36 0.1% 0.2%  
37 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 99.9%  
15 0.8% 99.8%  
16 2% 99.0%  
17 11% 97%  
18 14% 85%  
19 11% 71% Last Result
20 27% 60% Median
21 23% 33%  
22 7% 10%  
23 0.8% 3%  
24 1.1% 2%  
25 0.5% 1.3%  
26 0.5% 0.8%  
27 0.1% 0.3%  
28 0.3% 0.3%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.2% 100%  
10 0.8% 99.8%  
11 7% 99.1% Last Result
12 16% 92%  
13 12% 76%  
14 28% 64% Median
15 15% 36%  
16 10% 21%  
17 5% 12%  
18 4% 7%  
19 2% 3%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.2% 100%  
2 47% 99.8%  
3 4% 53% Median
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0% 49%  
7 3% 49%  
8 24% 45% Last Result
9 15% 21%  
10 4% 7%  
11 1.2% 2%  
12 0.7% 0.9%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 4% 99.9%  
2 8% 96%  
3 33% 89%  
4 0% 56%  
5 0% 56%  
6 0% 56%  
7 3% 56%  
8 26% 52% Last Result, Median
9 21% 27%  
10 3% 6%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.3%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 54% 99.9% Last Result, Median
2 37% 46%  
3 0% 8%  
4 0% 8%  
5 0% 8%  
6 0% 8%  
7 6% 8%  
8 1.5% 2%  
9 0.4% 0.4%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100%  
1 48% 95% Last Result, Median
2 45% 47%  
3 0.2% 2%  
4 0.1% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0.6% 2%  
8 1.0% 1.3%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 107 100% 104–113 100–115 100–116 99–118
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 89 92% 85–98 82–98 82–99 82–100
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 87 86% 84–96 80–96 80–98 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 85 53% 80–92 77–92 75–92 74–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 83 32% 76–88 76–91 75–92 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 82 14% 73–85 73–89 71–89 71–89
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 77 4% 73–82 71–84 70–89 68–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 80 8% 71–84 71–87 70–87 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 80 2% 72–83 72–83 70–84 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 79 0.3% 70–81 70–82 69–82 68–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 70 0% 65–78 64–78 63–78 60–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 68 0% 64–76 63–76 61–76 59–78
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 60 0% 54–68 53–69 52–70 51–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 58–67 58–68 56–69 54–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 59 0% 53–61 52–61 51–62 48–64
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 32 0% 25–36 25–37 23–38 21–42

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
97 0.1% 100%  
98 0% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.8%  
100 6% 99.5%  
101 1.1% 94%  
102 0.4% 93%  
103 1.2% 92%  
104 4% 91%  
105 11% 87%  
106 17% 76%  
107 12% 59% Last Result
108 5% 47% Median
109 7% 42%  
110 8% 35%  
111 0.6% 27%  
112 5% 27%  
113 14% 22%  
114 2% 8%  
115 2% 6%  
116 2% 4%  
117 0.3% 1.3%  
118 0.6% 1.0%  
119 0.3% 0.3%  
120 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 6% 99.8%  
83 0.8% 94%  
84 1.0% 93%  
85 5% 92% Majority
86 6% 87%  
87 24% 81%  
88 7% 58%  
89 7% 51% Last Result, Median
90 3% 44%  
91 9% 41%  
92 1.4% 31%  
93 4% 30%  
94 1.2% 25%  
95 6% 24%  
96 4% 18%  
97 1.1% 14%  
98 10% 13%  
99 2% 3%  
100 0.4% 0.8%  
101 0.2% 0.3%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0.1% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0% 100%  
78 0.3% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.7%  
80 6% 99.6%  
81 0.3% 94%  
82 0.8% 93%  
83 1.2% 93%  
84 5% 91%  
85 23% 86% Majority
86 7% 63%  
87 8% 56%  
88 5% 47% Last Result, Median
89 5% 42%  
90 7% 37%  
91 1.0% 30%  
92 4% 29%  
93 1.5% 25%  
94 6% 24%  
95 5% 18%  
96 9% 13%  
97 1.3% 4%  
98 2% 3%  
99 0.2% 0.4%  
100 0.1% 0.2%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 1.3% 99.6%  
75 1.2% 98%  
76 0.2% 97%  
77 3% 97%  
78 0.4% 94%  
79 2% 93%  
80 11% 92%  
81 7% 81%  
82 5% 74%  
83 7% 69%  
84 9% 62%  
85 22% 53% Majority
86 5% 31%  
87 3% 26% Median
88 2% 23% Last Result
89 4% 21%  
90 3% 17%  
91 0.4% 14%  
92 13% 14%  
93 0.5% 1.1%  
94 0.4% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.6% 99.8%  
75 3% 99.2%  
76 11% 96%  
77 7% 85%  
78 3% 78%  
79 4% 76%  
80 4% 72% Last Result, Median
81 5% 68%  
82 10% 62%  
83 13% 52%  
84 7% 39%  
85 4% 32% Majority
86 7% 28%  
87 3% 21%  
88 11% 18%  
89 1.3% 7%  
90 0.8% 6%  
91 3% 5%  
92 0.3% 3%  
93 2% 2%  
94 0.4% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 0.2% 99.8%  
71 2% 99.6%  
72 1.4% 97%  
73 9% 96%  
74 5% 87%  
75 6% 82%  
76 2% 76%  
77 4% 75%  
78 1.0% 71%  
79 7% 70%  
80 5% 63% Median
81 5% 58% Last Result
82 8% 52%  
83 7% 44%  
84 23% 37%  
85 5% 14% Majority
86 1.2% 9%  
87 0.8% 7%  
88 0.3% 7%  
89 6% 6%  
90 0.1% 0.4%  
91 0.3% 0.3%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 0.6% 99.7%  
69 0.4% 99.1%  
70 4% 98.7%  
71 1.1% 95%  
72 2% 94% Last Result
73 3% 92%  
74 16% 88%  
75 15% 73%  
76 3% 57%  
77 7% 55% Median
78 8% 48%  
79 15% 39%  
80 7% 25%  
81 4% 17%  
82 5% 13%  
83 1.2% 8%  
84 3% 7%  
85 1.1% 4% Majority
86 0.2% 3%  
87 0.1% 3%  
88 0.3% 3%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.8% 0.9%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 2% 99.2%  
71 10% 97%  
72 1.1% 87%  
73 4% 86%  
74 6% 82%  
75 1.2% 76%  
76 5% 74%  
77 1.5% 70%  
78 9% 68%  
79 3% 59% Median
80 7% 56% Last Result
81 7% 49%  
82 23% 42%  
83 6% 18%  
84 4% 12%  
85 1.0% 8% Majority
86 0.9% 7%  
87 6% 6%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0.1% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 0.6% 99.7%  
70 2% 99.1%  
71 1.1% 97%  
72 11% 96%  
73 4% 84%  
74 4% 80%  
75 3% 76%  
76 3% 72%  
77 7% 69%  
78 2% 62%  
79 7% 60% Median
80 6% 53% Last Result
81 5% 47%  
82 24% 42%  
83 14% 18%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.7% 2% Majority
86 0.4% 1.1%  
87 0.2% 0.7%  
88 0.1% 0.4%  
89 0% 0.3%  
90 0.3% 0.3%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.2% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.8%  
67 0.1% 99.7%  
68 0.6% 99.6%  
69 3% 98.9%  
70 10% 96%  
71 3% 86%  
72 4% 84%  
73 4% 79%  
74 3% 75%  
75 4% 72%  
76 7% 68%  
77 5% 61%  
78 4% 56% Median
79 8% 51% Last Result
80 16% 43%  
81 21% 27%  
82 4% 6%  
83 1.2% 2%  
84 0.8% 1.1%  
85 0.1% 0.3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.1% 99.8%  
60 0.3% 99.7%  
61 0.3% 99.4%  
62 1.2% 99.2%  
63 2% 98%  
64 2% 96%  
65 5% 93%  
66 2% 89%  
67 6% 87%  
68 15% 81%  
69 10% 66%  
70 12% 56%  
71 12% 44%  
72 4% 33%  
73 8% 29% Median
74 3% 20%  
75 0.7% 17%  
76 4% 16%  
77 0.7% 12% Last Result
78 10% 12%  
79 1.0% 1.3%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0% 99.7%  
59 0.4% 99.7%  
60 1.3% 99.3%  
61 1.2% 98%  
62 2% 97%  
63 3% 95%  
64 4% 92%  
65 5% 88%  
66 14% 83%  
67 6% 70%  
68 15% 64%  
69 6% 49%  
70 13% 43%  
71 4% 30%  
72 7% 26% Median
73 3% 19%  
74 3% 16%  
75 2% 13%  
76 11% 12% Last Result
77 0.1% 0.9%  
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0% 99.9%  
51 0.5% 99.9%  
52 3% 99.3%  
53 7% 97%  
54 6% 90%  
55 4% 84%  
56 8% 80%  
57 8% 73%  
58 7% 65%  
59 6% 58%  
60 16% 51% Median
61 3% 36% Last Result
62 5% 33%  
63 4% 28%  
64 2% 24%  
65 0.7% 22%  
66 2% 21%  
67 2% 19%  
68 12% 17%  
69 2% 6%  
70 1.1% 3%  
71 2% 2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0% 99.9%  
53 0.2% 99.9%  
54 0.3% 99.7%  
55 0.9% 99.4%  
56 1.5% 98%  
57 1.1% 97%  
58 13% 96%  
59 2% 83%  
60 8% 80%  
61 6% 72%  
62 10% 66%  
63 11% 56%  
64 6% 46% Median
65 11% 40%  
66 6% 29%  
67 17% 24%  
68 3% 7% Last Result
69 3% 4%  
70 0.5% 1.1%  
71 0.4% 0.5%  
72 0% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.4% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.6%  
49 0.7% 99.3%  
50 0.8% 98.5%  
51 2% 98%  
52 3% 96%  
53 13% 93%  
54 6% 80%  
55 4% 74%  
56 5% 70%  
57 7% 65%  
58 8% 58% Median
59 5% 50%  
60 35% 46% Last Result
61 7% 11%  
62 1.3% 3%  
63 1.3% 2%  
64 0.1% 0.5%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.8% 99.9%  
22 0.4% 99.0%  
23 2% 98.7%  
24 2% 97%  
25 13% 95%  
26 3% 82%  
27 6% 79%  
28 2% 73%  
29 3% 71%  
30 10% 67%  
31 4% 58% Median
32 17% 54%  
33 6% 36%  
34 13% 30%  
35 4% 17% Last Result
36 5% 12%  
37 4% 7%  
38 0.8% 3%  
39 1.5% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.9%  
41 0.1% 0.6%  
42 0.3% 0.5%  
43 0.2% 0.2%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations