Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 10–12 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 29.4% 27.6–31.3% 27.1–31.8% 26.7–32.3% 25.8–33.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.2% 21.6–25.0% 21.1–25.5% 20.7–25.9% 19.9–26.8%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.2% 11.9–14.7% 11.6–15.1% 11.2–15.5% 10.7–16.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.3% 10.1–12.7% 9.8–13.1% 9.5–13.4% 8.9–14.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.5–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 6.0–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
Rødt 2.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.6%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.1–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.7–4.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 52 49–57 49–58 47–61 46–61
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 39–45 38–46 37–47 36–49
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–27 21–27 20–28 19–29
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 18–24 17–24 16–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–16 11–17 10–18
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–10 3–11 1–11
Venstre 8 8 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–10
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–2 1–7 1–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–7 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0.3% 99.9% Last Result
46 0.4% 99.6%  
47 2% 99.2%  
48 2% 97%  
49 6% 95%  
50 15% 89%  
51 18% 75%  
52 11% 57% Median
53 7% 46%  
54 12% 38%  
55 8% 26%  
56 7% 18%  
57 5% 11%  
58 1.2% 6%  
59 1.0% 4%  
60 0.7% 3%  
61 3% 3%  
62 0.2% 0.2%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.5% 99.9%  
37 3% 99.3%  
38 3% 97%  
39 6% 93%  
40 5% 87%  
41 20% 82%  
42 20% 62% Median
43 16% 42%  
44 12% 26%  
45 6% 14%  
46 3% 8%  
47 2% 4%  
48 0.9% 2%  
49 1.1% 1.3% Last Result
50 0.2% 0.3%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0.1% 0.1%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0% 100%  
18 0.4% 99.9%  
19 1.5% 99.6%  
20 3% 98%  
21 9% 95%  
22 21% 86%  
23 13% 65%  
24 15% 52% Median
25 14% 37%  
26 9% 23%  
27 10% 14% Last Result
28 3% 4%  
29 0.7% 1.2%  
30 0.3% 0.5%  
31 0.2% 0.2%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.2% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.8%  
17 4% 99.0%  
18 8% 95%  
19 17% 87% Last Result
20 22% 70% Median
21 18% 48%  
22 17% 30%  
23 8% 13%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.8% 1.3%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 1.3% 99.9%  
11 8% 98.6% Last Result
12 16% 90%  
13 22% 74%  
14 26% 52% Median
15 14% 25%  
16 7% 11%  
17 4% 5%  
18 0.8% 1.0%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.2% 100%  
2 1.2% 98.8%  
3 21% 98%  
4 0% 77%  
5 0% 77%  
6 0% 77%  
7 9% 77%  
8 36% 67% Last Result, Median
9 20% 32%  
10 8% 12%  
11 3% 3%  
12 0.3% 0.4%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 38% 100%  
3 3% 62%  
4 0% 59%  
5 0% 59%  
6 0% 59%  
7 8% 59%  
8 25% 51% Last Result, Median
9 20% 26%  
10 6% 6%  
11 0.4% 0.4%  
12 0% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 49% 100% Last Result
2 46% 51% Median
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 3% 5%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 60% 98% Last Result, Median
2 32% 37%  
3 2% 5%  
4 0% 3%  
5 0% 3%  
6 0% 3%  
7 2% 3%  
8 1.2% 1.2%  
9 0% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 110 100% 106–113 105–115 104–116 101–118
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 91 97% 86–95 85–96 84–97 81–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 90 93% 85–93 84–95 82–96 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 86 59% 80–89 79–91 78–92 76–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 82 27% 77–87 76–89 75–89 74–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 79 7% 76–84 74–85 73–87 71–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 78 3% 74–83 73–84 72–85 70–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 76 3% 72–81 72–83 71–85 69–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 78 2% 74–82 73–83 71–84 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 0.6% 72–80 71–82 70–83 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 72 0% 67–75 65–77 64–77 61–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 66–74 64–75 62–76 60–77
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 66 0% 61–71 59–71 58–72 55–74
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 59–66 58–67 57–68 55–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 52–59 51–60 50–62 49–64
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 29–38 26–38 24–39 23–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0% 100%  
100 0.2% 99.9%  
101 0.3% 99.7%  
102 0.5% 99.5%  
103 1.1% 99.0%  
104 3% 98%  
105 4% 95%  
106 4% 91%  
107 8% 88% Last Result
108 10% 80%  
109 11% 70%  
110 15% 59%  
111 12% 44%  
112 16% 33% Median
113 7% 16%  
114 4% 10%  
115 3% 6%  
116 1.1% 3%  
117 0.4% 2%  
118 1.2% 1.4%  
119 0.2% 0.2%  
120 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0% 100%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.7%  
82 0.2% 99.5%  
83 0.8% 99.3%  
84 2% 98%  
85 2% 97% Majority
86 5% 95%  
87 6% 90%  
88 4% 83%  
89 7% 80% Last Result
90 12% 72%  
91 20% 61%  
92 8% 41%  
93 10% 33% Median
94 11% 23%  
95 4% 12%  
96 4% 8%  
97 2% 4%  
98 1.3% 2%  
99 0.5% 0.8%  
100 0.3% 0.3%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.3% 99.9%  
80 0.3% 99.6%  
81 0.4% 99.3%  
82 2% 98.9%  
83 2% 97%  
84 2% 96%  
85 7% 93% Majority
86 6% 87%  
87 5% 81%  
88 8% 76% Last Result
89 14% 68%  
90 19% 54%  
91 10% 35%  
92 11% 25% Median
93 5% 14%  
94 4% 9%  
95 3% 6%  
96 2% 3%  
97 0.8% 1.4%  
98 0.5% 0.7%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0% 99.9%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.5% 99.6%  
77 0.5% 99.1%  
78 2% 98.6%  
79 4% 97%  
80 4% 93%  
81 6% 89%  
82 6% 83%  
83 8% 77%  
84 10% 68%  
85 8% 59% Median, Majority
86 16% 50%  
87 18% 35%  
88 5% 17% Last Result
89 3% 12%  
90 3% 9%  
91 2% 6%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.7% 1.4%  
94 0.6% 0.7%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 1.5% 99.6%  
75 2% 98%  
76 3% 96%  
77 3% 92%  
78 3% 89%  
79 5% 86%  
80 9% 82% Last Result
81 17% 73%  
82 14% 56%  
83 9% 43%  
84 6% 34% Median
85 8% 27% Majority
86 6% 20%  
87 5% 14%  
88 4% 9%  
89 4% 6%  
90 1.2% 2%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0.2% 0.4%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0.1% 100%  
71 0.5% 99.8%  
72 0.8% 99.3%  
73 2% 98.6%  
74 3% 97%  
75 4% 94%  
76 5% 91%  
77 11% 86%  
78 10% 75%  
79 19% 65% Median
80 14% 46%  
81 8% 32% Last Result
82 5% 24%  
83 6% 19%  
84 7% 13%  
85 2% 7% Majority
86 2% 4%  
87 2% 3%  
88 0.4% 1.1%  
89 0.3% 0.7%  
90 0.3% 0.4%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 0.5% 99.7%  
71 1.3% 99.2%  
72 2% 98%  
73 4% 96%  
74 4% 92%  
75 11% 88%  
76 10% 77%  
77 8% 67%  
78 20% 59% Median
79 12% 39%  
80 7% 28% Last Result
81 4% 20%  
82 6% 17%  
83 5% 10%  
84 2% 5%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.8% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.5%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.2% 99.9%  
69 0.5% 99.7%  
70 1.0% 99.2%  
71 2% 98%  
72 8% 96% Last Result
73 13% 88%  
74 14% 75%  
75 7% 61%  
76 6% 55% Median
77 11% 49%  
78 11% 38%  
79 7% 27%  
80 6% 20%  
81 6% 14%  
82 2% 7%  
83 1.2% 5%  
84 1.1% 4%  
85 0.6% 3% Majority
86 0.4% 2%  
87 2% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.5%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.2% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.7%  
70 0.5% 99.3%  
71 1.4% 98.8%  
72 2% 97%  
73 3% 96%  
74 6% 92%  
75 5% 87%  
76 14% 82%  
77 14% 68% Median
78 16% 54%  
79 14% 38%  
80 6% 24% Last Result
81 5% 18%  
82 5% 12%  
83 4% 7%  
84 1.2% 4%  
85 1.5% 2% Majority
86 0.3% 1.0%  
87 0.4% 0.7%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.3% 100%  
68 0.7% 99.7%  
69 0.5% 99.0%  
70 2% 98%  
71 3% 97%  
72 5% 94%  
73 6% 89%  
74 13% 83%  
75 8% 71%  
76 13% 63% Median
77 21% 50%  
78 9% 29%  
79 5% 20% Last Result
80 6% 15%  
81 4% 9%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.1% 3%  
84 1.0% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.6% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.2%  
88 0% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0.1% 100%  
61 0.4% 99.9%  
62 0.3% 99.5%  
63 1.1% 99.2%  
64 2% 98%  
65 3% 97%  
66 3% 94%  
67 4% 91%  
68 6% 87%  
69 6% 81%  
70 9% 75%  
71 8% 66% Median
72 21% 58%  
73 12% 37%  
74 10% 25%  
75 5% 14%  
76 4% 10%  
77 4% 6% Last Result
78 2% 2%  
79 0.4% 0.7%  
80 0.2% 0.3%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.4% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.6%  
61 0.4% 99.5%  
62 2% 99.1%  
63 1.3% 97%  
64 4% 96%  
65 2% 92%  
66 6% 90%  
67 7% 84%  
68 8% 78%  
69 9% 69%  
70 12% 60% Median
71 20% 48%  
72 7% 28%  
73 9% 21%  
74 5% 12%  
75 3% 7%  
76 3% 4% Last Result
77 1.0% 1.5%  
78 0.3% 0.5%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.4% 99.8%  
56 0.3% 99.4%  
57 0.7% 99.1%  
58 2% 98%  
59 3% 97%  
60 4% 94%  
61 6% 90% Last Result
62 3% 84%  
63 8% 81%  
64 11% 73%  
65 6% 62%  
66 11% 56%  
67 14% 46%  
68 10% 31% Median
69 7% 22%  
70 3% 15%  
71 7% 12%  
72 3% 4%  
73 0.7% 2%  
74 0.6% 1.0%  
75 0.3% 0.3%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.4% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.6%  
56 2% 99.4%  
57 1.0% 98%  
58 3% 97%  
59 6% 94%  
60 7% 88%  
61 12% 82%  
62 15% 69% Median
63 19% 54%  
64 12% 35%  
65 9% 23%  
66 5% 14%  
67 5% 9%  
68 2% 5% Last Result
69 0.8% 2%  
70 1.0% 1.4%  
71 0.2% 0.4%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.3% 99.9%  
49 1.5% 99.6%  
50 1.1% 98%  
51 3% 97%  
52 5% 94%  
53 8% 89%  
54 16% 81%  
55 14% 66%  
56 12% 52% Median
57 13% 40%  
58 13% 27%  
59 5% 14%  
60 4% 9% Last Result
61 2% 5%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.8% 1.4%  
64 0.4% 0.6%  
65 0.2% 0.3%  
66 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.3% 99.9%  
23 0.2% 99.6%  
24 2% 99.4%  
25 2% 97%  
26 2% 96%  
27 2% 94%  
28 1.1% 92%  
29 5% 91%  
30 5% 85%  
31 6% 81%  
32 12% 75%  
33 9% 63%  
34 11% 54%  
35 10% 43% Last Result
36 8% 32% Median
37 7% 24%  
38 13% 17%  
39 2% 4%  
40 1.1% 2%  
41 0.7% 1.0%  
42 0.2% 0.3%  
43 0.1% 0.1%  
44 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations