Opinion Poll by Opinion Perduco, 9–15 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 30.3% 28.1–32.6% 27.5–33.2% 27.0–33.8% 26.0–34.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 20.9% 19.1–23.0% 18.5–23.6% 18.1–24.1% 17.2–25.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 14.5% 12.9–16.3% 12.5–16.9% 12.1–17.3% 11.3–18.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.9% 9.5–12.6% 9.1–13.0% 8.8–13.4% 8.2–14.3%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.3% 6.2–8.7% 5.9–9.1% 5.6–9.5% 5.1–10.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.3–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Venstre 4.4% 4.4% 3.6–5.6% 3.4–6.0% 3.2–6.2% 2.8–6.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.6% 1.7–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 53 50–58 48–60 47–61 45–64
Arbeiderpartiet 49 38 35–42 34–43 33–43 31–45
Fremskrittspartiet 27 26 22–30 22–31 21–32 18–33
Senterpartiet 19 20 16–22 15–23 15–24 14–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–16 10–16 10–17 9–18
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–11 2–11 1–12
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.2% 99.9%  
45 0.2% 99.7% Last Result
46 1.2% 99.4%  
47 2% 98%  
48 3% 97%  
49 3% 94%  
50 10% 90%  
51 12% 80%  
52 12% 68%  
53 12% 56% Median
54 8% 44%  
55 8% 35%  
56 5% 27%  
57 6% 22%  
58 9% 16%  
59 1.5% 7%  
60 2% 5%  
61 1.1% 3%  
62 0.4% 2%  
63 0.8% 1.3%  
64 0.4% 0.5%  
65 0% 0.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
28 0.1% 100%  
29 0.1% 99.9%  
30 0.2% 99.8%  
31 0.5% 99.6%  
32 0.6% 99.1%  
33 2% 98.5%  
34 5% 96%  
35 6% 91%  
36 15% 84%  
37 15% 70%  
38 14% 55% Median
39 13% 41%  
40 12% 28%  
41 6% 16%  
42 5% 10%  
43 4% 5%  
44 0.4% 1.4%  
45 0.6% 1.0%  
46 0.3% 0.4%  
47 0.1% 0.2%  
48 0% 0%  
49 0% 0% Last Result

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.9%  
19 0.3% 99.5%  
20 1.5% 99.2%  
21 3% 98%  
22 7% 95%  
23 11% 88%  
24 6% 78%  
25 21% 72%  
26 16% 52% Median
27 10% 36% Last Result
28 8% 25%  
29 2% 18%  
30 9% 15%  
31 1.4% 6%  
32 3% 4%  
33 1.2% 1.5%  
34 0.2% 0.3%  
35 0.1% 0.1%  
36 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.8% 99.9%  
15 5% 99.1%  
16 6% 94%  
17 7% 88%  
18 8% 81%  
19 17% 73% Last Result
20 17% 56% Median
21 20% 38%  
22 13% 18%  
23 2% 5%  
24 0.4% 3%  
25 0.9% 2%  
26 1.2% 1.4%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
8 0.2% 100%  
9 2% 99.8%  
10 6% 98%  
11 10% 92% Last Result
12 20% 82%  
13 21% 62% Median
14 18% 40%  
15 11% 22%  
16 7% 12%  
17 4% 4%  
18 0.4% 0.9%  
19 0.4% 0.5%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.4% 100%  
2 2% 98.5%  
3 19% 97%  
4 0% 78%  
5 0% 78%  
6 0% 78%  
7 13% 78%  
8 21% 65% Last Result, Median
9 25% 44%  
10 12% 20%  
11 6% 8%  
12 1.1% 2%  
13 0.3% 0.4%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 20% 100%  
3 8% 80%  
4 0% 71%  
5 0% 71%  
6 0.1% 71%  
7 7% 71%  
8 36% 64% Last Result, Median
9 17% 29%  
10 6% 11%  
11 4% 5%  
12 1.1% 1.3%  
13 0.1% 0.2%  
14 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 38% 100% Last Result
2 43% 62% Median
3 0% 20%  
4 0% 20%  
5 0% 20%  
6 0% 20%  
7 14% 20%  
8 4% 5%  
9 0.5% 0.7%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100%  
1 46% 98% Last Result
2 40% 53% Median
3 3% 13%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0.2% 10%  
7 4% 10%  
8 5% 6%  
9 1.1% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 113 100% 108–118 107–119 106–120 103–122
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 96 99.8% 90–101 89–102 88–103 86–105
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 94 99.1% 89–99 87–100 85–101 83–103
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 87 62% 81–91 80–93 78–95 75–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 80 17% 75–86 73–86 72–88 70–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 79 10% 74–84 73–87 72–88 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 75 0.9% 70–80 69–82 68–84 66–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 73 0.2% 68–77 68–80 66–81 63–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 73 0.2% 68–79 67–80 66–81 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 71 0% 66–75 66–76 65–78 62–80
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 68 0% 62–73 61–75 60–75 57–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 67 0% 61–72 60–74 59–75 57–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 65 0% 59–70 59–71 58–72 55–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 57 0% 54–62 53–62 52–64 50–66
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 50 0% 48–55 47–56 46–57 43–59
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 34 0% 29–38 28–40 26–40 24–42

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
100 0.1% 100%  
101 0.1% 99.9%  
102 0.2% 99.8%  
103 0.3% 99.7%  
104 0.6% 99.4%  
105 0.8% 98.7%  
106 2% 98%  
107 3% 96% Last Result
108 3% 93%  
109 6% 90%  
110 5% 84%  
111 16% 78%  
112 9% 62%  
113 7% 54%  
114 6% 46%  
115 9% 40% Median
116 12% 31%  
117 7% 19%  
118 6% 12%  
119 3% 6%  
120 2% 3%  
121 0.7% 1.2%  
122 0.1% 0.6%  
123 0.3% 0.4%  
124 0% 0.1%  
125 0.1% 0.1%  
126 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
83 0.1% 100%  
84 0.1% 99.9%  
85 0.2% 99.8% Majority
86 0.6% 99.6%  
87 0.6% 99.0%  
88 1.5% 98%  
89 3% 97% Last Result
90 5% 94%  
91 6% 89%  
92 9% 83%  
93 5% 74%  
94 8% 69%  
95 8% 61%  
96 9% 52%  
97 10% 43% Median
98 4% 33%  
99 10% 29%  
100 4% 18%  
101 6% 15%  
102 6% 9%  
103 2% 3%  
104 0.5% 1.2%  
105 0.4% 0.7%  
106 0.2% 0.3%  
107 0% 0.1%  
108 0.1% 0.1%  
109 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.1% 99.8%  
83 0.2% 99.7%  
84 0.4% 99.5%  
85 2% 99.1% Majority
86 1.0% 97%  
87 4% 96%  
88 2% 93% Last Result
89 6% 90%  
90 12% 84%  
91 8% 72%  
92 6% 64%  
93 5% 58%  
94 12% 53%  
95 11% 41% Median
96 3% 31%  
97 4% 27%  
98 10% 23%  
99 5% 13%  
100 5% 8%  
101 2% 3%  
102 0.6% 1.1%  
103 0.2% 0.6%  
104 0.3% 0.4%  
105 0.1% 0.1%  
106 0% 0.1%  
107 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.2% 100%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.1% 99.6%  
76 0.6% 99.5%  
77 0.5% 98.9%  
78 2% 98%  
79 1.4% 96%  
80 5% 95% Last Result
81 9% 90%  
82 4% 81%  
83 7% 77%  
84 9% 70%  
85 7% 62% Majority
86 4% 55%  
87 10% 51% Median
88 10% 40%  
89 7% 30%  
90 7% 23%  
91 6% 15%  
92 4% 9%  
93 1.2% 6%  
94 0.7% 4%  
95 2% 4%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.1% 0.7%  
98 0.4% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 0.4% 99.6%  
71 0.6% 99.2%  
72 3% 98.6%  
73 0.7% 96%  
74 2% 95%  
75 8% 93%  
76 3% 85%  
77 7% 82%  
78 11% 76%  
79 13% 64%  
80 5% 51%  
81 5% 46% Median
82 10% 40%  
83 5% 31%  
84 9% 26%  
85 2% 17% Majority
86 10% 15%  
87 2% 5%  
88 0.7% 3% Last Result
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.7% 1.5%  
91 0.6% 0.8%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.2%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 1.0% 99.6%  
71 0.8% 98.7%  
72 1.2% 98% Last Result
73 6% 97%  
74 4% 91%  
75 6% 87%  
76 7% 81%  
77 9% 74%  
78 8% 64%  
79 8% 57% Median
80 8% 49%  
81 14% 41%  
82 4% 28%  
83 10% 24%  
84 4% 14%  
85 2% 10% Majority
86 1.1% 7%  
87 2% 6%  
88 3% 4%  
89 0.4% 1.0%  
90 0.4% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.3% 99.9%  
66 0.2% 99.6%  
67 0.6% 99.4%  
68 2% 98.9%  
69 5% 97%  
70 5% 92%  
71 10% 87%  
72 4% 77%  
73 3% 73%  
74 11% 69%  
75 12% 59% Median
76 5% 47%  
77 6% 42%  
78 8% 36%  
79 12% 28%  
80 6% 16%  
81 2% 10% Last Result
82 4% 7%  
83 1.0% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.4% 0.9% Majority
86 0.2% 0.5%  
87 0.1% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.9%  
63 0.3% 99.7%  
64 0.3% 99.4%  
65 0.5% 99.1%  
66 1.1% 98.6%  
67 2% 97%  
68 8% 95%  
69 7% 87%  
70 11% 80%  
71 5% 69%  
72 14% 64%  
73 13% 50% Median
74 7% 38%  
75 5% 30%  
76 8% 26%  
77 9% 18%  
78 2% 9%  
79 1.4% 7%  
80 3% 5% Last Result
81 0.7% 3%  
82 0.2% 2%  
83 1.3% 2%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0% 99.9%  
63 0.2% 99.9%  
64 0.4% 99.7%  
65 0.5% 99.3%  
66 2% 98.8%  
67 6% 97%  
68 6% 91%  
69 4% 85%  
70 10% 82%  
71 4% 71%  
72 10% 67%  
73 9% 57% Median
74 8% 48%  
75 8% 39%  
76 5% 31%  
77 9% 26%  
78 6% 17%  
79 5% 11%  
80 3% 6% Last Result
81 1.5% 3%  
82 0.6% 2%  
83 0.6% 1.0%  
84 0.2% 0.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.1% 99.9%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.6%  
63 0.6% 99.1%  
64 0.9% 98.5%  
65 2% 98%  
66 9% 96%  
67 7% 87%  
68 7% 80%  
69 11% 73%  
70 10% 62%  
71 12% 52% Median
72 11% 41%  
73 8% 29%  
74 5% 21%  
75 10% 16%  
76 2% 6%  
77 1.4% 4%  
78 2% 3%  
79 0.6% 1.1% Last Result
80 0.1% 0.5%  
81 0.3% 0.4%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.1% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.8%  
58 0.3% 99.5%  
59 0.6% 99.2%  
60 2% 98.6%  
61 3% 96% Last Result
62 4% 93%  
63 4% 90%  
64 7% 86%  
65 13% 78%  
66 6% 65%  
67 5% 60%  
68 14% 54%  
69 7% 41% Median
70 9% 34%  
71 9% 25%  
72 3% 16%  
73 4% 13%  
74 4% 9%  
75 3% 5%  
76 0.6% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.4%  
78 0.5% 0.7%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.1% 100%  
55 0.2% 99.9%  
56 0.1% 99.7%  
57 0.6% 99.6%  
58 0.5% 99.0%  
59 2% 98%  
60 5% 97%  
61 2% 91%  
62 5% 89%  
63 5% 84%  
64 4% 80%  
65 7% 75%  
66 12% 68%  
67 11% 57%  
68 8% 46% Median
69 8% 37%  
70 6% 29%  
71 6% 24%  
72 9% 18%  
73 3% 9%  
74 2% 5%  
75 0.8% 3%  
76 0.6% 2%  
77 0.7% 1.5% Last Result
78 0.6% 0.8%  
79 0.1% 0.2%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0.1% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.2% 99.8%  
55 0.2% 99.6%  
56 0.9% 99.3%  
57 0.6% 98%  
58 3% 98%  
59 5% 95%  
60 4% 90%  
61 6% 86%  
62 5% 80%  
63 8% 75%  
64 8% 67%  
65 18% 59%  
66 6% 42% Median
67 7% 36%  
68 10% 30%  
69 8% 20%  
70 6% 12%  
71 2% 6%  
72 2% 4%  
73 0.6% 2%  
74 0.4% 1.2%  
75 0.2% 0.8%  
76 0.5% 0.6% Last Result
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
46 0% 100%  
47 0.1% 99.9%  
48 0.1% 99.9%  
49 0.2% 99.8%  
50 0.6% 99.6%  
51 0.9% 99.0%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 7% 97%  
54 4% 90%  
55 12% 86%  
56 12% 73%  
57 12% 61%  
58 14% 50% Median
59 10% 36%  
60 5% 26%  
61 10% 20%  
62 6% 10%  
63 1.3% 4%  
64 1.0% 3%  
65 0.7% 2%  
66 0.6% 0.8%  
67 0.1% 0.2%  
68 0% 0.1% Last Result
69 0% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0.1% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.1% 99.8%  
43 0.3% 99.6%  
44 0.4% 99.3%  
45 1.4% 98.9%  
46 2% 98%  
47 4% 95%  
48 6% 91%  
49 11% 85%  
50 25% 74%  
51 12% 49% Median
52 5% 37%  
53 7% 32%  
54 11% 25%  
55 6% 13%  
56 3% 8%  
57 3% 4%  
58 0.6% 2%  
59 0.7% 0.9%  
60 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
61 0.1% 0.1%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.1% 99.9%  
23 0.1% 99.7%  
24 0.3% 99.7%  
25 0.7% 99.4%  
26 1.2% 98.6%  
27 1.2% 97%  
28 1.5% 96%  
29 5% 95%  
30 7% 89%  
31 7% 82%  
32 9% 75%  
33 11% 67%  
34 12% 55%  
35 13% 43% Last Result
36 6% 30% Median
37 9% 23%  
38 8% 14%  
39 2% 7%  
40 3% 5%  
41 1.1% 2%  
42 0.8% 1.1%  
43 0.2% 0.4%  
44 0.1% 0.2%  
45 0% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations