Opinion Poll by Sentio, 16–21 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 30.5% 28.3–32.8% 27.7–33.4% 27.2–34.0% 26.2–35.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.6% 20.7–24.8% 20.2–25.4% 19.7–25.9% 18.8–26.9%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.4% 11.9–15.2% 11.4–15.7% 11.1–16.1% 10.4–17.0%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.1% 8.8–11.7% 8.4–12.2% 8.1–12.6% 7.5–13.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.5% 6.4–9.0% 6.1–9.4% 5.8–9.8% 5.3–10.5%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.6% 3.7–5.7% 3.4–6.1% 3.2–6.4% 2.9–7.0%
Rødt 2.4% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.2%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.1% 2.4–4.2% 2.2–4.5% 2.1–4.7% 1.8–5.2%
Venstre 4.4% 3.0% 2.3–4.0% 2.1–4.3% 2.0–4.5% 1.7–5.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 54 51–60 50–61 49–63 45–65
Arbeiderpartiet 49 39 38–47 37–47 36–48 36–50
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 21–28 20–28 19–29 19–31
Senterpartiet 19 19 15–21 15–21 14–22 13–24
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–17 11–17 10–17 10–18
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–11 2–11 1–13
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 0–9
Venstre 8 2 2–7 1–8 0–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0.5% 100% Last Result
46 0.2% 99.5%  
47 0.2% 99.3%  
48 0.5% 99.1%  
49 2% 98.6%  
50 2% 97%  
51 6% 94%  
52 11% 88%  
53 4% 77%  
54 26% 73% Median
55 8% 48%  
56 10% 40%  
57 7% 30%  
58 4% 23%  
59 2% 19%  
60 8% 16%  
61 4% 8%  
62 0.8% 4%  
63 2% 3%  
64 0.2% 1.3%  
65 1.0% 1.1%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0.1%  
68 0% 0.1%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.1% 99.9%  
35 0.2% 99.8%  
36 4% 99.6%  
37 4% 95%  
38 4% 92%  
39 38% 87% Median
40 6% 49%  
41 8% 44%  
42 5% 36%  
43 4% 31%  
44 7% 27%  
45 7% 20%  
46 2% 13%  
47 7% 11%  
48 1.3% 3%  
49 1.1% 2% Last Result
50 0.9% 1.2%  
51 0.2% 0.2%  
52 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.3% 99.9%  
19 4% 99.6%  
20 2% 96%  
21 8% 94%  
22 10% 86%  
23 10% 76%  
24 9% 66%  
25 13% 57% Median
26 15% 45%  
27 19% 29% Last Result
28 7% 10%  
29 1.2% 3%  
30 1.1% 2%  
31 1.0% 1.2%  
32 0% 0.2%  
33 0% 0.1%  
34 0.1% 0.1%  
35 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
12 0.1% 100%  
13 2% 99.9%  
14 0.9% 98%  
15 9% 97%  
16 6% 88%  
17 7% 82%  
18 9% 75%  
19 22% 66% Last Result, Median
20 15% 43%  
21 24% 29%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.6% 1.3%  
24 0.5% 0.6%  
25 0.1% 0.2%  
26 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 3% 99.7%  
11 5% 97% Last Result
12 8% 92%  
13 31% 84%  
14 17% 53% Median
15 14% 36%  
16 10% 22%  
17 10% 12%  
18 1.1% 2%  
19 0.2% 0.5%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.9% 100%  
2 2% 99.0%  
3 8% 97%  
4 0% 89%  
5 0% 89%  
6 0% 89%  
7 7% 89%  
8 40% 82% Last Result, Median
9 19% 42%  
10 13% 23%  
11 7% 9%  
12 1.1% 2%  
13 0.8% 0.9%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 44% 100% Last Result
2 42% 56% Median
3 0% 14%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 0% 14%  
7 3% 14%  
8 5% 11%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.5% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 43% 99.1% Last Result
2 46% 56% Median
3 3% 9%  
4 0% 6%  
5 0% 6%  
6 0% 6%  
7 3% 6%  
8 2% 4%  
9 1.4% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.2%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 4% 97%  
2 62% 93% Median
3 21% 31%  
4 0% 10%  
5 0% 10%  
6 0% 10%  
7 4% 10%  
8 4% 6% Last Result
9 2% 2%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 111 100% 104–113 103–115 102–116 98–118
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre 89 93 98.9% 87–97 87–99 87–99 83–101
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 92 95% 85–94 85–96 83–97 80–99
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 43% 79–89 78–92 77–92 72–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 83 25% 77–87 76–89 75–90 72–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 81 8% 74–83 74–86 72–88 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 77 4% 75–84 73–84 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 75 1.1% 71–81 70–83 69–84 68–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 76 1.0% 72–82 70–82 70–82 68–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 74 0.2% 69–79 68–81 68–81 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 69 0% 66–76 64–78 62–78 59–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 68 0% 65–73 62–76 61–76 57–78
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 65 0% 62–71 61–72 60–73 56–73
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 60 0% 56–65 55–67 54–68 53–69
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 55 0% 51–61 49–62 49–62 47–63
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 31 0% 23–33 22–36 21–36 19–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
96 0.2% 100%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.3% 99.6%  
99 0.1% 99.3%  
100 0.3% 99.3%  
101 0.4% 99.0%  
102 1.5% 98.5%  
103 2% 97%  
104 6% 95%  
105 10% 89%  
106 4% 78%  
107 11% 75% Last Result
108 4% 64% Median
109 3% 60%  
110 4% 58%  
111 12% 53%  
112 12% 41%  
113 21% 29%  
114 3% 8%  
115 0.7% 5%  
116 3% 5%  
117 0.4% 1.2%  
118 0.6% 0.8%  
119 0.1% 0.2%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
77 0.1% 100%  
78 0% 99.9%  
79 0% 99.9%  
80 0% 99.9%  
81 0.2% 99.8%  
82 0% 99.7%  
83 0.3% 99.6%  
84 0.4% 99.3%  
85 0.7% 98.9% Majority
86 0.2% 98%  
87 10% 98%  
88 5% 88%  
89 4% 83% Last Result
90 5% 79%  
91 4% 74% Median
92 10% 70%  
93 11% 61%  
94 28% 49%  
95 7% 21%  
96 3% 14%  
97 3% 11%  
98 3% 8%  
99 4% 6%  
100 1.4% 2%  
101 0.5% 0.6%  
102 0.1% 0.2%  
103 0% 0.1%  
104 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.9%  
79 0.1% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.7%  
81 0.3% 99.5%  
82 0.5% 99.2%  
83 3% 98.6%  
84 0.6% 96%  
85 6% 95% Majority
86 6% 90%  
87 4% 84%  
88 6% 80% Last Result
89 5% 74% Median
90 3% 68%  
91 8% 65%  
92 33% 57%  
93 11% 24%  
94 3% 13%  
95 0.8% 10%  
96 5% 9%  
97 2% 4%  
98 0.8% 2%  
99 0.8% 0.9%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.6% 99.8%  
73 0.7% 99.2%  
74 0.1% 98.5%  
75 0.4% 98%  
76 0.4% 98%  
77 2% 98%  
78 4% 95%  
79 3% 91%  
80 2% 88%  
81 5% 86%  
82 8% 81% Median
83 26% 73%  
84 3% 46%  
85 12% 43% Majority
86 10% 31%  
87 3% 21%  
88 5% 17% Last Result
89 4% 13%  
90 1.1% 9%  
91 0.8% 8%  
92 5% 7%  
93 0.4% 1.4%  
94 0.6% 1.0%  
95 0.3% 0.4%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0% 99.9%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.4% 99.9%  
73 0.8% 99.5%  
74 1.0% 98.7%  
75 1.3% 98%  
76 5% 96%  
77 2% 91%  
78 8% 90%  
79 5% 81%  
80 4% 77% Last Result
81 3% 73% Median
82 14% 70%  
83 9% 56%  
84 21% 47%  
85 11% 25% Majority
86 1.1% 14%  
87 4% 13%  
88 2% 9%  
89 2% 6%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.7% 2%  
92 0.2% 1.3%  
93 0.3% 1.1%  
94 0.1% 0.8%  
95 0.6% 0.7%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.1% 99.9%  
70 1.0% 99.8%  
71 0.8% 98.8%  
72 1.2% 98% Last Result
73 1.4% 97%  
74 5% 95%  
75 2% 90%  
76 6% 88%  
77 7% 81%  
78 4% 74%  
79 5% 70% Median
80 14% 65%  
81 27% 51%  
82 4% 24%  
83 10% 19%  
84 0.9% 9%  
85 1.1% 8% Majority
86 2% 7%  
87 1.5% 5%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.1% 0.6%  
91 0.3% 0.5%  
92 0% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0% 100%  
69 0% 99.9%  
70 0.8% 99.9%  
71 0.9% 99.1%  
72 2% 98%  
73 5% 96%  
74 0.8% 91%  
75 3% 90%  
76 11% 87% Median
77 33% 76%  
78 8% 43%  
79 3% 35%  
80 5% 32%  
81 6% 26% Last Result
82 4% 20%  
83 6% 16%  
84 6% 10%  
85 0.6% 4% Majority
86 3% 4%  
87 0.5% 1.3%  
88 0.3% 0.8%  
89 0.2% 0.5%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0% 99.8%  
68 0.3% 99.8%  
69 3% 99.5%  
70 1.4% 96%  
71 5% 95%  
72 5% 90%  
73 3% 85%  
74 10% 82% Median
75 24% 72%  
76 16% 48%  
77 8% 32%  
78 3% 24%  
79 6% 21%  
80 4% 15% Last Result
81 2% 11%  
82 0.8% 9%  
83 6% 8%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.6% 1.1% Majority
86 0.2% 0.4%  
87 0% 0.2%  
88 0.2% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 1.4% 99.4%  
70 4% 98%  
71 3% 94%  
72 3% 92%  
73 3% 89%  
74 7% 86% Median
75 28% 79%  
76 11% 51%  
77 10% 39%  
78 4% 30%  
79 5% 26%  
80 4% 21% Last Result
81 5% 17%  
82 10% 12%  
83 0.2% 2%  
84 0.7% 2%  
85 0.4% 1.0% Majority
86 0.3% 0.7%  
87 0% 0.3%  
88 0.2% 0.3%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.5% 99.7%  
67 2% 99.2%  
68 3% 98%  
69 6% 94%  
70 4% 89%  
71 4% 85%  
72 8% 81% Median
73 22% 73%  
74 12% 51%  
75 11% 38%  
76 8% 27%  
77 4% 19%  
78 3% 15%  
79 4% 11% Last Result
80 1.2% 8%  
81 5% 7%  
82 0.5% 1.3%  
83 0.5% 0.8%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0.1% 100%  
58 0.1% 99.9%  
59 0.7% 99.9%  
60 0.6% 99.2%  
61 0.1% 98.6%  
62 1.4% 98.5%  
63 2% 97%  
64 0.9% 95%  
65 1.2% 95%  
66 5% 93%  
67 7% 89%  
68 11% 82% Median
69 21% 70%  
70 19% 49%  
71 6% 30%  
72 3% 24%  
73 3% 21%  
74 6% 18%  
75 2% 12%  
76 1.0% 10%  
77 1.4% 9% Last Result
78 5% 8%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.6% 1.1%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.2%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.7% 99.7%  
58 0.6% 99.0%  
59 0.1% 98%  
60 0.5% 98%  
61 3% 98%  
62 1.4% 95%  
63 2% 94%  
64 2% 92%  
65 10% 91%  
66 11% 81% Median
67 3% 70%  
68 38% 67%  
69 7% 29%  
70 3% 22%  
71 3% 19%  
72 3% 16%  
73 4% 13%  
74 1.4% 9%  
75 1.2% 7%  
76 5% 6% Last Result
77 0.2% 2%  
78 1.0% 1.4%  
79 0.4% 0.4%  
80 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.1% 99.5%  
57 0.6% 99.4%  
58 0.4% 98.8%  
59 0.8% 98%  
60 2% 98%  
61 2% 96% Last Result
62 8% 94%  
63 9% 86%  
64 4% 77% Median
65 23% 73%  
66 16% 50%  
67 3% 34%  
68 7% 31%  
69 8% 24%  
70 3% 16%  
71 3% 13%  
72 5% 9%  
73 4% 5%  
74 0.1% 0.3%  
75 0.1% 0.2%  
76 0% 0.1%  
77 0% 0.1%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.7%  
54 1.0% 98%  
55 4% 97%  
56 8% 93%  
57 2% 85%  
58 16% 83% Median
59 11% 67%  
60 29% 56%  
61 3% 26%  
62 5% 24%  
63 3% 19%  
64 3% 16%  
65 4% 13%  
66 1.0% 9%  
67 5% 8%  
68 1.1% 3% Last Result
69 1.0% 1.4%  
70 0.3% 0.5%  
71 0.1% 0.1%  
72 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100%  
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.5% 99.8%  
48 0.2% 99.4%  
49 5% 99.2%  
50 1.1% 95%  
51 4% 94%  
52 20% 90%  
53 9% 70% Median
54 8% 61%  
55 9% 53%  
56 14% 44%  
57 5% 29%  
58 3% 25%  
59 10% 21%  
60 0.5% 11% Last Result
61 6% 11%  
62 3% 5%  
63 2% 2%  
64 0.3% 0.5%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 1.0% 99.2%  
21 2% 98%  
22 4% 96%  
23 3% 93%  
24 6% 90%  
25 0.6% 84%  
26 2% 83%  
27 3% 81%  
28 2% 78%  
29 9% 76% Median
30 10% 67%  
31 26% 57%  
32 19% 31%  
33 5% 12%  
34 1.2% 7%  
35 0.3% 6% Last Result
36 4% 6%  
37 0.5% 1.2%  
38 0.2% 0.7%  
39 0.5% 0.5%  
40 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations