Opinion Poll by Ipsos MMI, 22–24 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 26.2% 24.4–28.2% 23.9–28.7% 23.4–29.2% 22.6–30.1%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 25.4% 23.6–27.4% 23.1–27.9% 22.7–28.4% 21.8–29.3%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.5% 11.2–14.1% 10.8–14.5% 10.5–14.9% 9.9–15.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 12.1% 10.8–13.6% 10.4–14.0% 10.1–14.4% 9.5–15.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.6% 5.6–10.2%
Venstre 4.4% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.2% 3.1–6.7%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9% 2.6–5.2% 2.3–5.6%
Rødt 2.4% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.8–4.8%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.2–4.1% 2.1–4.4% 1.8–4.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 48 44–52 43–53 42–55 40–56
Arbeiderpartiet 49 45 43–51 42–52 42–53 40–54
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 20–26 19–27 19–27 18–29
Senterpartiet 19 22 20–25 19–26 18–26 17–28
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–17 10–19
Venstre 8 9 2–10 2–11 2–11 2–13
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–2 1–2 1–8 1–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–2 1–7 1–8 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.1% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.8%  
41 1.0% 99.5%  
42 3% 98%  
43 5% 96%  
44 5% 91%  
45 10% 86% Last Result
46 8% 76%  
47 14% 68%  
48 9% 54% Median
49 11% 44%  
50 12% 33%  
51 8% 21%  
52 5% 13%  
53 4% 8%  
54 2% 4%  
55 2% 3%  
56 0.5% 0.7%  
57 0.1% 0.3%  
58 0.2% 0.2%  
59 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
38 0.1% 100%  
39 0.2% 99.9%  
40 0.3% 99.7%  
41 2% 99.4%  
42 7% 98%  
43 22% 91%  
44 12% 69%  
45 14% 57% Median
46 7% 43%  
47 6% 37%  
48 5% 30%  
49 8% 25% Last Result
50 6% 17%  
51 5% 12%  
52 2% 6%  
53 2% 4%  
54 2% 2%  
55 0.2% 0.3%  
56 0% 0.1%  
57 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.3% 99.9%  
18 1.0% 99.6%  
19 4% 98.6%  
20 8% 95%  
21 11% 87%  
22 15% 75%  
23 18% 61% Median
24 16% 42%  
25 14% 26%  
26 7% 12%  
27 3% 5% Last Result
28 2% 2%  
29 0.4% 0.7%  
30 0.2% 0.2%  
31 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.0% 99.8%  
18 3% 98.8%  
19 5% 96% Last Result
20 11% 91%  
21 20% 80%  
22 15% 60% Median
23 21% 45%  
24 10% 23%  
25 7% 14%  
26 5% 7%  
27 1.3% 2%  
28 0.6% 0.8%  
29 0.1% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.1% 100%  
10 2% 99.9%  
11 7% 98% Last Result
12 9% 91%  
13 19% 82%  
14 27% 63% Median
15 11% 35%  
16 18% 24%  
17 4% 6%  
18 1.2% 2%  
19 0.6% 0.8%  
20 0.1% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 13% 100%  
3 6% 87%  
4 0% 81%  
5 0% 81%  
6 0% 81%  
7 8% 81%  
8 23% 73% Last Result
9 29% 50% Median
10 16% 21%  
11 4% 6%  
12 1.0% 2%  
13 0.5% 0.5%  
14 0.1% 0.1%  
15 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100%  
1 11% 99.5%  
2 13% 88%  
3 38% 75% Median
4 0% 37%  
5 0% 37%  
6 0% 37%  
7 10% 37%  
8 19% 27% Last Result
9 6% 8%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.2% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 43% 100% Last Result
2 53% 57% Median
3 0% 5%  
4 0% 5%  
5 0% 5%  
6 0% 5%  
7 0.7% 5%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.5% 0.6%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100%  
1 48% 99.1% Last Result
2 42% 51% Median
3 1.3% 9%  
4 0.1% 7%  
5 0% 7%  
6 0% 7%  
7 3% 7%  
8 3% 4%  
9 0.8% 0.9%  
10 0% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 106 100% 100–110 99–111 98–112 95–113
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 88 84% 83–94 83–95 82–97 80–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 86 60% 80–91 80–93 79–94 77–97
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 84 46% 79–90 78–91 77–92 76–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 84 42% 79–89 78–91 77–92 75–95
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 85 58% 80–90 78–91 77–92 74–94
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 82 26% 77–87 76–89 76–90 74–93
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 83 40% 78–89 76–89 75–90 72–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 7% 73–84 72–85 70–86 69–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 74 0.4% 70–80 68–82 68–84 66–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 72 0.1% 68–78 67–79 66–81 64–83
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 71 0% 66–76 65–77 64–78 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 67 0% 64–73 63–75 62–77 61–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 60 0% 56–65 55–67 53–67 53–70
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 60 0% 55–66 54–66 52–67 49–70
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 34 0% 29–39 27–41 26–41 24–43

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
92 0% 100%  
93 0% 99.9%  
94 0.3% 99.9%  
95 0.4% 99.6%  
96 0.4% 99.2%  
97 1.0% 98.8%  
98 1.4% 98%  
99 6% 96%  
100 4% 91%  
101 7% 86%  
102 5% 80%  
103 5% 75%  
104 9% 69%  
105 8% 60% Median
106 14% 51%  
107 7% 38% Last Result
108 5% 31%  
109 9% 26%  
110 9% 17%  
111 3% 7%  
112 3% 4%  
113 0.6% 0.8%  
114 0.1% 0.2%  
115 0.1% 0.1%  
116 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.5% 99.8%  
81 0.6% 99.3%  
82 4% 98.7%  
83 6% 95%  
84 6% 90%  
85 11% 84% Majority
86 10% 73% Median
87 12% 63%  
88 8% 51% Last Result
89 6% 43%  
90 3% 37%  
91 6% 35%  
92 6% 29%  
93 7% 22%  
94 7% 15%  
95 4% 9%  
96 2% 5%  
97 2% 3%  
98 0.8% 1.0%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.4% 99.8%  
78 1.0% 99.4%  
79 2% 98%  
80 8% 97%  
81 5% 89% Last Result
82 8% 84%  
83 6% 76%  
84 10% 70%  
85 4% 60% Median, Majority
86 14% 57%  
87 8% 43%  
88 9% 35%  
89 6% 25%  
90 6% 20%  
91 4% 13%  
92 3% 9%  
93 4% 7%  
94 0.9% 3%  
95 1.0% 2%  
96 0.4% 0.9%  
97 0.3% 0.5%  
98 0.2% 0.2%  
99 0% 0.1%  
100 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.1% 100%  
75 0.3% 99.9%  
76 0.8% 99.5%  
77 1.5% 98.7%  
78 5% 97%  
79 7% 92%  
80 7% 85% Last Result
81 8% 78%  
82 10% 70%  
83 5% 60% Median
84 9% 55%  
85 13% 46% Majority
86 8% 34%  
87 4% 25%  
88 5% 21%  
89 5% 16%  
90 3% 10%  
91 3% 7%  
92 3% 5%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.0%  
95 0.3% 0.5%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0.1% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.4% 99.8%  
76 0.9% 99.4%  
77 1.3% 98.5%  
78 5% 97%  
79 8% 93%  
80 7% 85% Last Result
81 7% 78%  
82 7% 71%  
83 10% 64% Median
84 12% 54%  
85 7% 42% Majority
86 8% 35%  
87 10% 27%  
88 5% 17%  
89 3% 12%  
90 3% 10%  
91 4% 7%  
92 0.7% 3%  
93 1.0% 2%  
94 0.5% 1.0%  
95 0.4% 0.6%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.8%  
75 0.5% 99.4%  
76 1.0% 99.0%  
77 0.7% 98%  
78 4% 97%  
79 3% 93%  
80 3% 90%  
81 5% 88%  
82 10% 83%  
83 8% 73%  
84 7% 65%  
85 12% 58% Median, Majority
86 10% 46%  
87 7% 36%  
88 7% 29%  
89 7% 22% Last Result
90 8% 15%  
91 5% 7%  
92 1.3% 3%  
93 0.9% 1.5%  
94 0.4% 0.6%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.9%  
74 0.6% 99.5%  
75 1.3% 98.9%  
76 4% 98%  
77 3% 93%  
78 10% 90%  
79 7% 80% Last Result
80 10% 73%  
81 8% 63% Median
82 10% 55%  
83 11% 45%  
84 8% 34%  
85 8% 26% Majority
86 4% 18%  
87 4% 14%  
88 3% 10%  
89 2% 7%  
90 3% 5%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.4% 1.1%  
93 0.5% 0.7%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.2% 99.9%  
72 0.3% 99.8%  
73 0.4% 99.5%  
74 1.0% 99.1%  
75 0.9% 98%  
76 4% 97%  
77 3% 93%  
78 4% 91%  
79 6% 86%  
80 6% 80%  
81 9% 75%  
82 8% 65%  
83 14% 57% Median
84 4% 43%  
85 10% 40% Majority
86 6% 30%  
87 8% 24%  
88 5% 16% Last Result
89 8% 11%  
90 2% 3%  
91 1.0% 2%  
92 0.4% 0.6%  
93 0.1% 0.2%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0% 100%  
66 0% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.2% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 99.6%  
70 1.5% 98.9%  
71 2% 97%  
72 2% 95%  
73 6% 93%  
74 4% 87%  
75 10% 83%  
76 6% 74%  
77 7% 67%  
78 5% 61%  
79 9% 56%  
80 12% 47% Last Result, Median
81 6% 35%  
82 11% 29%  
83 7% 18%  
84 4% 11%  
85 4% 7% Majority
86 2% 3%  
87 0.3% 0.8%  
88 0.4% 0.5%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
64 0% 100%  
65 0.1% 99.9%  
66 0.6% 99.8%  
67 1.2% 99.2%  
68 3% 98%  
69 4% 95%  
70 4% 90%  
71 13% 86%  
72 12% 73% Median
73 7% 61%  
74 7% 54%  
75 9% 48%  
76 7% 39%  
77 8% 31% Last Result
78 5% 23%  
79 5% 19%  
80 5% 14%  
81 4% 9%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.0% 4%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.2% 0.4% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0.3% 99.8%  
65 1.0% 99.5%  
66 3% 98.5%  
67 5% 95%  
68 3% 91%  
69 9% 87%  
70 9% 78% Median
71 13% 69%  
72 8% 55%  
73 9% 47%  
74 7% 38%  
75 10% 31%  
76 6% 21% Last Result
77 3% 15%  
78 5% 13%  
79 3% 8%  
80 1.4% 5%  
81 0.9% 3%  
82 1.5% 2%  
83 0.5% 0.7%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.1% 99.8%  
62 0.4% 99.7%  
63 1.1% 99.3%  
64 3% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 3% 92%  
67 6% 88%  
68 10% 83%  
69 7% 73%  
70 9% 66%  
71 12% 57% Median
72 11% 45% Last Result
73 10% 34%  
74 6% 24%  
75 6% 18%  
76 4% 12%  
77 5% 8%  
78 0.9% 3%  
79 0.3% 2%  
80 1.3% 2%  
81 0.5% 0.6%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.8%  
61 1.0% 99.5%  
62 3% 98.6%  
63 2% 96%  
64 10% 94%  
65 11% 84%  
66 9% 73%  
67 15% 64% Median
68 9% 49% Last Result
69 7% 39%  
70 7% 32%  
71 6% 25%  
72 6% 19%  
73 4% 13%  
74 3% 9%  
75 2% 6%  
76 1.4% 4%  
77 2% 3%  
78 0.3% 0.6%  
79 0.2% 0.3%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0.1% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 2% 99.7%  
54 2% 97%  
55 4% 95%  
56 6% 91%  
57 14% 85%  
58 7% 71%  
59 12% 64% Median
60 10% 51% Last Result
61 10% 41%  
62 9% 31%  
63 6% 22%  
64 5% 16%  
65 3% 11%  
66 3% 9%  
67 4% 6%  
68 0.9% 2%  
69 0.5% 1.1%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0% 100%  
48 0.2% 99.9%  
49 0.4% 99.8%  
50 0.4% 99.3%  
51 1.0% 98.9%  
52 1.4% 98%  
53 0.9% 96%  
54 4% 96%  
55 6% 91%  
56 5% 85%  
57 7% 80%  
58 6% 73%  
59 9% 66%  
60 12% 58% Median
61 10% 46% Last Result
62 7% 36%  
63 9% 29%  
64 5% 20%  
65 3% 15%  
66 9% 12%  
67 1.2% 4%  
68 1.2% 2%  
69 0.5% 1.1%  
70 0.4% 0.6%  
71 0.2% 0.2%  
72 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
22 0% 100%  
23 0.1% 99.9%  
24 0.7% 99.8%  
25 1.1% 99.1%  
26 0.6% 98%  
27 3% 97%  
28 4% 95%  
29 2% 91%  
30 5% 89%  
31 9% 84%  
32 7% 75%  
33 6% 68%  
34 11% 61% Median
35 11% 50% Last Result
36 6% 39%  
37 14% 32%  
38 7% 18%  
39 2% 12%  
40 4% 10%  
41 4% 5%  
42 0.9% 2%  
43 0.4% 0.7%  
44 0.2% 0.3%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations