Opinion Poll by Norstat, 23–28 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 29.9% 28.0–31.9% 27.5–32.4% 27.1–32.9% 26.2–33.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.8% 21.1–24.6% 20.6–25.1% 20.2–25.6% 19.4–26.5%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 12.8% 11.5–14.3% 11.1–14.8% 10.8–15.1% 10.2–15.9%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.0% 9.8–12.4% 9.4–12.8% 9.1–13.2% 8.6–13.9%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.2% 5.4–9.8%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.3% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.8–6.3%
Venstre 4.4% 4.0% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Rødt 2.4% 2.8% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 2.7% 2.1–3.5% 2.0–3.7% 1.8–3.9% 1.6–4.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 54 51–58 50–59 49–61 48–63
Arbeiderpartiet 49 42 39–45 37–46 37–47 36–48
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–26 20–27 20–28 18–29
Senterpartiet 19 20 18–23 17–24 17–24 16–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 12–15 11–16 11–17 10–18
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–10 2–10 1–11
Venstre 8 3 2–9 2–9 2–10 2–11
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–8
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 1 1–2 1–2 0–2 0–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
45 0% 100% Last Result
46 0.1% 99.9%  
47 0.2% 99.8%  
48 0.5% 99.5%  
49 2% 99.1%  
50 5% 97%  
51 4% 92%  
52 10% 87%  
53 14% 77%  
54 18% 63% Median
55 7% 46%  
56 10% 39%  
57 13% 29%  
58 8% 16%  
59 3% 8%  
60 2% 5%  
61 2% 3%  
62 0.5% 1.2%  
63 0.5% 0.7%  
64 0.1% 0.2%  
65 0% 0.2%  
66 0.1% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0.1% 99.9%  
36 0.9% 99.8%  
37 4% 99.0%  
38 3% 95%  
39 5% 92%  
40 14% 87%  
41 13% 72%  
42 13% 59% Median
43 18% 46%  
44 10% 28%  
45 9% 19%  
46 6% 9%  
47 2% 3%  
48 0.8% 1.3%  
49 0.3% 0.5% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.2%  
51 0.1% 0.1%  
52 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.1% 100%  
18 0.6% 99.8%  
19 1.2% 99.2%  
20 3% 98%  
21 7% 95%  
22 14% 87%  
23 18% 74%  
24 21% 55% Median
25 17% 34%  
26 10% 17%  
27 3% 7% Last Result
28 1.5% 3%  
29 1.2% 2%  
30 0.4% 0.5%  
31 0.1% 0.1%  
32 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0% 100%  
15 0.3% 99.9%  
16 1.2% 99.6%  
17 5% 98%  
18 12% 94%  
19 12% 82% Last Result
20 26% 70% Median
21 18% 44%  
22 9% 26%  
23 12% 17%  
24 4% 5%  
25 0.8% 1.2%  
26 0.4% 0.5%  
27 0.1% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.3% 100%  
10 1.3% 99.7%  
11 7% 98% Last Result
12 14% 92%  
13 29% 78% Median
14 11% 49%  
15 29% 38%  
16 5% 9%  
17 3% 4%  
18 0.7% 0.9%  
19 0.1% 0.2%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 1.4% 100%  
2 2% 98.6%  
3 30% 97%  
4 0% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 0% 67%  
7 3% 67%  
8 30% 63% Last Result, Median
9 23% 33%  
10 9% 11%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.4% 0.4%  
13 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 45% 99.9%  
3 13% 55% Median
4 0% 43%  
5 0% 43%  
6 0% 43%  
7 7% 43%  
8 22% 36% Last Result
9 10% 14%  
10 3% 4%  
11 0.6% 0.7%  
12 0.1% 0.1%  
13 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 52% 100% Last Result, Median
2 46% 48%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 0.9% 2%  
8 0.8% 0.9%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100%  
1 68% 97% Last Result, Median
2 27% 29%  
3 1.0% 2%  
4 0.2% 1.4%  
5 0% 1.2%  
6 0% 1.2%  
7 0.4% 1.2%  
8 0.7% 0.7%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 110 100% 106–114 105–116 104–116 101–118
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 92 98% 87–95 86–97 85–98 83–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 90 95% 85–94 85–96 83–97 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 85 55% 80–88 78–90 77–91 75–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 83 28% 79–87 78–89 76–91 74–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 79 4% 75–83 73–84 72–86 71–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 79 3% 74–82 73–84 72–85 70–87
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 77 2% 73–82 72–83 71–84 70–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 77 1.3% 73–82 71–83 70–84 69–86
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 0.5% 72–81 70–81 69–82 68–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0% 66–74 65–76 64–77 61–79
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 69 0% 65–72 63–74 62–76 59–78
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 66 0% 62–70 60–72 59–73 57–75
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 62 0% 59–67 57–68 56–68 55–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 62 59 0% 55–63 53–64 53–65 51–67
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 56 0% 52–60 50–61 50–62 48–63
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 32 0% 27–37 25–38 24–38 23–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
99 0.1% 100%  
100 0.1% 99.9%  
101 0.3% 99.8%  
102 0.3% 99.5%  
103 0.5% 99.2%  
104 2% 98.7%  
105 3% 97%  
106 6% 93%  
107 5% 88% Last Result
108 12% 82%  
109 13% 70% Median
110 10% 58%  
111 9% 47%  
112 16% 39%  
113 11% 23%  
114 5% 13%  
115 3% 8%  
116 4% 5%  
117 1.1% 2%  
118 0.2% 0.5%  
119 0.3% 0.4%  
120 0.1% 0.1%  
121 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0.1% 100%  
81 0.1% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.8%  
83 0.7% 99.6%  
84 1.2% 98.9%  
85 1.3% 98% Majority
86 2% 96%  
87 10% 94%  
88 9% 84%  
89 9% 74% Last Result
90 8% 66% Median
91 7% 58%  
92 11% 51%  
93 19% 40%  
94 5% 21%  
95 6% 16%  
96 3% 10%  
97 3% 7%  
98 2% 4%  
99 2% 2%  
100 0.2% 0.3%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.9%  
81 0.4% 99.7%  
82 0.7% 99.3%  
83 1.3% 98.5%  
84 2% 97%  
85 6% 95% Majority
86 10% 90%  
87 8% 80%  
88 8% 72% Last Result
89 8% 64% Median
90 10% 56%  
91 9% 45%  
92 16% 36%  
93 8% 21%  
94 4% 13%  
95 3% 8%  
96 2% 5%  
97 1.3% 3%  
98 2% 2%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.2% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.8%  
75 0.5% 99.6%  
76 1.1% 99.1%  
77 2% 98%  
78 2% 96%  
79 4% 94%  
80 5% 91%  
81 5% 85%  
82 6% 81%  
83 10% 75%  
84 10% 65% Median
85 23% 55% Majority
86 11% 32%  
87 6% 21%  
88 8% 15% Last Result
89 2% 8%  
90 2% 5%  
91 1.1% 3%  
92 2% 2%  
93 0.3% 0.5%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.3% 99.8%  
75 0.6% 99.5%  
76 2% 98.9%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 96%  
79 7% 93%  
80 4% 86% Last Result
81 7% 82% Median
82 16% 74%  
83 19% 58%  
84 11% 39%  
85 7% 28% Majority
86 6% 21%  
87 6% 16%  
88 3% 10%  
89 2% 7%  
90 2% 4%  
91 2% 3%  
92 0.6% 0.9%  
93 0.1% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.2%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 2% 99.7%  
72 1.3% 98%  
73 2% 97%  
74 3% 95%  
75 4% 92%  
76 8% 87%  
77 16% 79% Median
78 9% 64%  
79 11% 54%  
80 8% 44%  
81 8% 36% Last Result
82 8% 28%  
83 10% 19%  
84 5% 10%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.3% 3%  
87 0.6% 1.3%  
88 0.4% 0.7%  
89 0.2% 0.3%  
90 0.1% 0.1%  
91 0% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.2% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.7%  
71 1.2% 99.3%  
72 3% 98% Last Result
73 2% 95%  
74 9% 93%  
75 8% 84%  
76 6% 76%  
77 14% 70%  
78 6% 56% Median
79 8% 50%  
80 13% 42%  
81 12% 29%  
82 8% 17%  
83 3% 9%  
84 3% 6%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 1.0% 2%  
87 0.5% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.3%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.2% 99.8%  
70 2% 99.6%  
71 2% 98%  
72 3% 96%  
73 3% 93%  
74 6% 90%  
75 5% 83%  
76 19% 78% Median
77 11% 60%  
78 7% 49%  
79 8% 42%  
80 9% 34% Last Result
81 9% 25%  
82 10% 16%  
83 2% 6%  
84 1.2% 3%  
85 1.2% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.0%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 1.0% 99.8%  
70 2% 98.8%  
71 2% 97%  
72 2% 95%  
73 4% 93%  
74 6% 89%  
75 9% 83%  
76 17% 74% Median
77 11% 57%  
78 8% 46%  
79 8% 38%  
80 7% 30% Last Result
81 6% 23%  
82 11% 17%  
83 3% 6%  
84 2% 3%  
85 0.5% 1.3% Majority
86 0.5% 0.8%  
87 0.2% 0.3%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.2% 99.9%  
68 1.1% 99.7%  
69 2% 98.7%  
70 3% 97%  
71 2% 94%  
72 5% 92%  
73 7% 87%  
74 9% 80%  
75 18% 70% Median
76 10% 53%  
77 6% 43%  
78 8% 36%  
79 8% 28% Last Result
80 9% 21%  
81 7% 12%  
82 2% 5%  
83 1.1% 2%  
84 0.5% 1.0%  
85 0.3% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.2%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.5% 99.5%  
62 0.4% 99.0%  
63 1.0% 98.6%  
64 2% 98%  
65 4% 96%  
66 3% 92%  
67 5% 89%  
68 6% 84%  
69 8% 78%  
70 20% 70%  
71 10% 51% Median
72 12% 40%  
73 17% 28%  
74 3% 12%  
75 4% 9%  
76 2% 5%  
77 2% 3% Last Result
78 0.5% 1.5%  
79 0.8% 1.0%  
80 0.1% 0.2%  
81 0.1% 0.1%  
82 0% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0.1% 100%  
59 0.3% 99.8%  
60 0.4% 99.5%  
61 1.1% 99.1%  
62 1.0% 98%  
63 3% 97%  
64 3% 94%  
65 5% 92%  
66 5% 87%  
67 6% 82%  
68 16% 77%  
69 15% 60%  
70 6% 45% Median
71 13% 38%  
72 16% 26%  
73 2% 10%  
74 4% 8%  
75 1.1% 4%  
76 2% 3% Last Result
77 0.5% 1.2%  
78 0.6% 0.7%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0.1% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
55 0.1% 100%  
56 0.2% 99.9%  
57 0.4% 99.7%  
58 1.0% 99.3%  
59 1.0% 98%  
60 3% 97%  
61 4% 95% Last Result
62 9% 91%  
63 8% 82%  
64 10% 74%  
65 3% 64% Median
66 11% 61%  
67 14% 50%  
68 11% 36%  
69 8% 25%  
70 7% 17%  
71 3% 10%  
72 3% 7%  
73 2% 4%  
74 2% 2%  
75 0.4% 0.7%  
76 0.1% 0.2%  
77 0.1% 0.1%  
78 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 1.1% 99.8%  
56 1.3% 98.6%  
57 3% 97%  
58 3% 94%  
59 5% 91%  
60 16% 86%  
61 8% 70%  
62 13% 62% Median
63 12% 49%  
64 11% 37%  
65 10% 26%  
66 6% 16%  
67 2% 11%  
68 7% 8% Last Result
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.3% 0.6%  
71 0.1% 0.2%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0.1% 100%  
50 0.3% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.6%  
52 1.1% 99.4%  
53 4% 98%  
54 3% 94%  
55 5% 92%  
56 11% 87%  
57 16% 76% Median
58 9% 61%  
59 10% 52%  
60 13% 42%  
61 12% 29%  
62 5% 17% Last Result
63 6% 12%  
64 3% 6%  
65 2% 3%  
66 0.5% 1.1%  
67 0.3% 0.7%  
68 0.2% 0.4%  
69 0.1% 0.2%  
70 0.1% 0.1%  
71 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
47 0.1% 100%  
48 0.4% 99.8%  
49 0.6% 99.4%  
50 4% 98.8%  
51 3% 95%  
52 5% 92%  
53 9% 87%  
54 12% 78%  
55 14% 67% Median
56 10% 53%  
57 11% 43%  
58 16% 32%  
59 6% 16%  
60 5% 10% Last Result
61 3% 6%  
62 2% 3%  
63 0.7% 1.0%  
64 0.2% 0.4%  
65 0.1% 0.2%  
66 0% 0.1%  
67 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
21 0.1% 100%  
22 0.2% 99.9%  
23 1.3% 99.6%  
24 1.1% 98%  
25 3% 97%  
26 4% 94%  
27 3% 91%  
28 11% 88%  
29 3% 77%  
30 7% 74%  
31 12% 66% Median
32 9% 54%  
33 8% 45%  
34 10% 37%  
35 8% 27% Last Result
36 7% 20%  
37 6% 13%  
38 5% 7%  
39 1.1% 2%  
40 0.9% 1.2%  
41 0.2% 0.3%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations