Opinion Poll by Norfakta, 30–31 January 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.8% 25.8–30.0% 25.3–30.6% 24.8–31.1% 23.9–32.2%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.0% 22.1–26.0% 21.5–26.6% 21.1–27.1% 20.2–28.1%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.3% 11.9–15.0% 11.5–15.5% 11.1–15.9% 10.5–16.8%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.0% 9.7–12.6% 9.3–13.0% 9.0–13.4% 8.4–14.2%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.6% 6.5–9.0% 6.2–9.4% 6.0–9.7% 5.5–10.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 4.3% 3.5–5.4% 3.2–5.7% 3.1–5.9% 2.7–6.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.1% 3.4–5.2% 3.1–5.5% 2.9–5.8% 2.6–6.4%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.5% 2.8–4.5% 2.6–4.8% 2.4–5.0% 2.1–5.6%
Rødt 2.4% 2.6% 2.0–3.5% 1.8–3.7% 1.7–4.0% 1.4–4.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 50 46–54 44–55 44–56 42–59
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 41–47 40–48 39–49 36–52
Fremskrittspartiet 27 24 21–28 20–28 20–29 18–31
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–23 17–24 16–25 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 14 12–16 11–17 11–18 10–19
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 8 3–10 3–10 2–11 1–12
Venstre 8 7 2–9 2–10 2–10 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
40 0% 100%  
41 0.1% 99.9%  
42 0.4% 99.8%  
43 1.1% 99.5%  
44 3% 98%  
45 3% 95% Last Result
46 4% 92%  
47 7% 88%  
48 9% 81%  
49 12% 71%  
50 15% 60% Median
51 15% 45%  
52 8% 30%  
53 7% 22%  
54 8% 15%  
55 3% 7%  
56 1.2% 4%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.5% 1.1%  
59 0.2% 0.7%  
60 0.1% 0.4%  
61 0.1% 0.4%  
62 0.3% 0.3%  
63 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
35 0.1% 100%  
36 0.6% 99.9%  
37 0.5% 99.3%  
38 0.4% 98.9%  
39 1.5% 98.5%  
40 6% 97%  
41 21% 91%  
42 17% 70%  
43 7% 53% Median
44 5% 46%  
45 8% 41%  
46 9% 33%  
47 13% 23%  
48 7% 10%  
49 1.4% 3% Last Result
50 0.3% 1.1%  
51 0.2% 0.8%  
52 0.3% 0.6%  
53 0.2% 0.3%  
54 0.1% 0.1%  
55 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
17 0.2% 100%  
18 0.5% 99.7%  
19 2% 99.2%  
20 3% 98%  
21 8% 94%  
22 11% 87%  
23 13% 75%  
24 17% 63% Median
25 13% 45%  
26 16% 32%  
27 6% 17% Last Result
28 7% 10%  
29 1.2% 3%  
30 1.1% 2%  
31 0.6% 0.7%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.3% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.7%  
16 2% 98.9%  
17 8% 96%  
18 12% 89%  
19 17% 77% Last Result
20 14% 60% Median
21 26% 46%  
22 7% 20%  
23 5% 13%  
24 5% 8%  
25 1.4% 3%  
26 1.3% 1.5%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0.1%  
29 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.4% 100%  
10 1.4% 99.6%  
11 5% 98% Last Result
12 10% 93%  
13 27% 83%  
14 22% 56% Median
15 16% 35%  
16 11% 18%  
17 3% 7%  
18 3% 4%  
19 0.7% 0.9%  
20 0.2% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 2% 99.9%  
2 2% 98%  
3 29% 96%  
4 0% 67%  
5 0% 67%  
6 0% 67%  
7 16% 67%  
8 24% 51% Last Result, Median
9 17% 27%  
10 7% 10%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.5% 0.6%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.1% 100%  
2 38% 99.9%  
3 4% 62%  
4 0% 58%  
5 0% 58%  
6 0% 58%  
7 9% 58% Median
8 25% 49% Last Result
9 18% 24%  
10 4% 6%  
11 2% 2%  
12 0.5% 0.5%  
13 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 26% 99.9% Last Result
2 47% 74% Median
3 2% 27%  
4 0.3% 25%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0% 24%  
7 9% 24%  
8 11% 15%  
9 3% 4%  
10 0.9% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100%  
1 66% 99.8% Last Result, Median
2 32% 34%  
3 0% 2%  
4 0% 2%  
5 0% 2%  
6 0% 2%  
7 1.3% 2%  
8 0.7% 0.9%  
9 0.1% 0.1%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 106 100% 102–112 100–113 99–113 96–115
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 90 90% 85–94 84–96 83–96 79–100
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 88 75% 82–93 81–94 79–95 78–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 87 70% 82–92 81–93 79–94 76–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 82 30% 77–87 76–88 75–90 73–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 81 19% 76–86 75–87 74–88 71–91
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 80 16% 75–85 74–87 73–88 70–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 79 10% 75–84 73–85 73–86 69–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 78 2% 73–83 72–83 71–84 68–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 75 0.5% 70–79 68–80 67–81 65–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 74 0.2% 68–78 67–80 66–81 63–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 70 0% 65–75 64–77 63–78 60–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 60–69 59–69 58–70 56–72
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 62 0% 57–68 56–69 55–69 52–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 54–62 53–63 52–64 50–66
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 32 0% 26–38 25–40 24–40 22–41

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0% 100%  
94 0.1% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.8%  
96 0.2% 99.6%  
97 0.6% 99.5%  
98 0.9% 98.9%  
99 1.3% 98%  
100 3% 97%  
101 2% 94%  
102 4% 92%  
103 9% 88%  
104 8% 80%  
105 9% 71%  
106 14% 63%  
107 6% 48% Last Result
108 6% 42%  
109 10% 36% Median
110 8% 26%  
111 5% 18%  
112 6% 13%  
113 5% 7%  
114 1.1% 2%  
115 0.7% 1.1%  
116 0.3% 0.4%  
117 0.1% 0.1%  
118 0% 0.1%  
119 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.2% 100%  
79 0.5% 99.8%  
80 0.2% 99.3%  
81 0.6% 99.1%  
82 0.6% 98%  
83 1.3% 98%  
84 7% 97%  
85 5% 90% Majority
86 4% 85%  
87 7% 81%  
88 6% 74%  
89 9% 68% Last Result
90 14% 59%  
91 15% 45% Median
92 5% 30%  
93 7% 25%  
94 8% 18%  
95 4% 9%  
96 3% 5%  
97 0.9% 2%  
98 0.4% 1.4%  
99 0.4% 0.9%  
100 0.4% 0.5%  
101 0.1% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0% 100%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.1% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.8%  
78 0.8% 99.6%  
79 2% 98.7%  
80 1.2% 97%  
81 2% 96%  
82 5% 94%  
83 7% 89%  
84 7% 82%  
85 7% 75% Majority
86 7% 68%  
87 8% 61% Median
88 16% 54% Last Result
89 7% 37%  
90 9% 30%  
91 7% 22%  
92 5% 15%  
93 5% 10%  
94 2% 5%  
95 1.1% 3%  
96 0.9% 2%  
97 0.5% 0.9%  
98 0.1% 0.3%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
74 0.2% 100%  
75 0.1% 99.8%  
76 0.3% 99.7%  
77 0.8% 99.4%  
78 0.8% 98.6%  
79 0.9% 98%  
80 2% 97%  
81 3% 95%  
82 10% 93%  
83 4% 82%  
84 8% 78%  
85 9% 70% Majority
86 9% 61%  
87 7% 52%  
88 13% 45% Last Result
89 9% 32% Median
90 7% 23%  
91 4% 16%  
92 3% 11%  
93 5% 8%  
94 2% 3%  
95 0.6% 1.2%  
96 0.3% 0.7%  
97 0.1% 0.3%  
98 0.1% 0.2%  
99 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0.1% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.8%  
73 0.3% 99.7%  
74 0.6% 99.3%  
75 2% 98.8%  
76 5% 97%  
77 3% 92%  
78 4% 89%  
79 7% 84%  
80 9% 77% Median
81 13% 68% Last Result
82 7% 55%  
83 9% 48%  
84 9% 39%  
85 8% 30% Majority
86 4% 22%  
87 10% 18%  
88 3% 7%  
89 2% 5%  
90 0.9% 3%  
91 0.8% 2%  
92 0.8% 1.4%  
93 0.3% 0.6%  
94 0.1% 0.3%  
95 0.2% 0.2%  
96 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.2% 99.7%  
72 0.3% 99.5%  
73 0.6% 99.1%  
74 2% 98.5%  
75 5% 96%  
76 6% 91%  
77 4% 85%  
78 7% 81%  
79 11% 75% Median
80 13% 64% Last Result
81 8% 51%  
82 6% 43%  
83 11% 37%  
84 7% 26%  
85 8% 19% Majority
86 5% 11%  
87 2% 5%  
88 1.3% 3%  
89 0.9% 2%  
90 0.5% 1.2%  
91 0.3% 0.8%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.1% 99.8%  
70 0.3% 99.7%  
71 0.7% 99.5%  
72 1.0% 98.7%  
73 2% 98%  
74 5% 96%  
75 3% 91%  
76 6% 88%  
77 5% 81%  
78 9% 76%  
79 13% 67%  
80 11% 54% Last Result
81 8% 43% Median
82 5% 34%  
83 9% 30%  
84 4% 21%  
85 6% 16% Majority
86 5% 10%  
87 2% 5%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.4% 1.4%  
90 0.8% 1.0%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
68 0.1% 100%  
69 0.4% 99.9%  
70 0.4% 99.5%  
71 0.4% 99.1%  
72 0.9% 98.6%  
73 3% 98%  
74 4% 95%  
75 8% 91%  
76 7% 82%  
77 5% 75%  
78 15% 70% Median
79 14% 55%  
80 9% 41% Last Result
81 6% 32%  
82 7% 26%  
83 4% 19%  
84 5% 15%  
85 7% 10% Majority
86 1.3% 3%  
87 0.6% 2%  
88 0.6% 2%  
89 0.2% 0.9%  
90 0.5% 0.7%  
91 0.2% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.5% 99.8%  
69 0.5% 99.3%  
70 0.6% 98.8%  
71 1.0% 98%  
72 4% 97%  
73 4% 93%  
74 11% 89%  
75 7% 79%  
76 6% 72%  
77 14% 66% Median
78 15% 51%  
79 9% 37% Last Result
80 3% 28%  
81 8% 25%  
82 5% 17%  
83 9% 12%  
84 1.3% 3%  
85 0.8% 2% Majority
86 0.6% 1.4%  
87 0.5% 0.9%  
88 0.2% 0.4%  
89 0.1% 0.2%  
90 0% 0.1%  
91 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0% 100%  
63 0.1% 99.9%  
64 0% 99.8%  
65 0.3% 99.8%  
66 0.4% 99.4%  
67 2% 99.0%  
68 4% 97%  
69 2% 93%  
70 7% 91%  
71 5% 84%  
72 13% 79% Last Result
73 7% 65%  
74 8% 59% Median
75 9% 50%  
76 12% 42%  
77 11% 30%  
78 6% 18%  
79 4% 12%  
80 4% 8%  
81 2% 5%  
82 1.2% 2%  
83 0.3% 1.3%  
84 0.4% 1.0%  
85 0.4% 0.5% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
61 0.1% 100%  
62 0.1% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.8%  
64 0.6% 99.2%  
65 0.7% 98.7%  
66 3% 98%  
67 2% 95%  
68 6% 94%  
69 5% 88%  
70 6% 83%  
71 8% 76%  
72 10% 68%  
73 8% 58% Median
74 10% 50%  
75 9% 40%  
76 4% 31%  
77 11% 27% Last Result
78 7% 17%  
79 3% 10%  
80 3% 7%  
81 1.0% 3%  
82 1.1% 2%  
83 0.7% 1.0%  
84 0.1% 0.3%  
85 0% 0.2% Majority
86 0% 0.2%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
58 0% 100%  
59 0.2% 99.9%  
60 0.2% 99.7%  
61 0.4% 99.5%  
62 0.9% 99.1%  
63 3% 98%  
64 3% 95%  
65 4% 92%  
66 4% 89%  
67 9% 85%  
68 7% 76%  
69 9% 69%  
70 10% 59%  
71 14% 49% Median
72 9% 35%  
73 6% 26%  
74 4% 19%  
75 7% 15%  
76 3% 8% Last Result
77 1.2% 5%  
78 1.5% 4%  
79 2% 2%  
80 0.2% 0.8%  
81 0.6% 0.7%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0.2% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.8%  
56 0.5% 99.5%  
57 0.9% 99.0%  
58 3% 98%  
59 4% 96%  
60 8% 91%  
61 11% 83%  
62 13% 71%  
63 10% 59% Median
64 10% 49%  
65 9% 39%  
66 7% 30%  
67 5% 24%  
68 8% 19% Last Result
69 8% 11%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.8% 1.2%  
73 0.3% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
49 0% 100%  
50 0.1% 99.9%  
51 0.2% 99.8%  
52 0.4% 99.6%  
53 0.7% 99.2%  
54 0.8% 98%  
55 2% 98%  
56 5% 96%  
57 2% 90%  
58 5% 88%  
59 11% 83%  
60 6% 72%  
61 7% 67% Last Result
62 10% 60%  
63 12% 50%  
64 6% 37%  
65 5% 32% Median
66 9% 27%  
67 5% 18%  
68 5% 13%  
69 5% 7%  
70 1.5% 2%  
71 0.4% 1.0%  
72 0.2% 0.6%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0.1% 0.1%  
76 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.2% 99.9%  
50 0.7% 99.7%  
51 1.1% 98.9%  
52 2% 98%  
53 5% 96%  
54 11% 91%  
55 6% 80%  
56 14% 74%  
57 12% 60% Median
58 10% 48%  
59 7% 38%  
60 11% 31% Last Result
61 6% 20%  
62 8% 14%  
63 3% 6%  
64 1.1% 3%  
65 0.8% 2%  
66 0.5% 0.8%  
67 0.2% 0.3%  
68 0.1% 0.2%  
69 0.1% 0.1%  
70 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.1% 99.9%  
22 0.9% 99.7%  
23 0.8% 98.8%  
24 2% 98%  
25 2% 96%  
26 7% 94%  
27 3% 88%  
28 3% 85%  
29 6% 82%  
30 11% 77%  
31 9% 66%  
32 8% 57%  
33 9% 49%  
34 8% 40%  
35 7% 31% Last Result, Median
36 3% 24%  
37 5% 21%  
38 8% 16%  
39 3% 8%  
40 5% 6%  
41 0.2% 0.6%  
42 0.3% 0.4%  
43 0% 0.1%  
44 0% 0.1%  
45 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations