Opinion Poll by Kantar TNS, 29 January–5 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 29.2% 27.2–31.3% 26.6–31.9% 26.1–32.4% 25.2–33.5%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 23.6% 21.8–25.7% 21.3–26.2% 20.8–26.7% 20.0–27.7%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 11.9% 10.6–13.5% 10.2–14.0% 9.9–14.4% 9.3–15.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.2% 9.9–12.8% 9.5–13.2% 9.2–13.6% 8.6–14.4%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 6.3% 5.3–7.5% 5.0–7.9% 4.8–8.2% 4.4–8.8%
Venstre 4.4% 5.8% 4.8–7.0% 4.6–7.3% 4.4–7.6% 3.9–8.3%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.8% 3.0–4.8% 2.8–5.1% 2.7–5.3% 2.3–5.9%
Rødt 2.4% 3.6% 2.9–4.7% 2.7–4.9% 2.5–5.2% 2.2–5.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.4% 2.7–4.4% 2.5–4.6% 2.3–4.9% 2.0–5.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 53 48–56 47–57 47–58 44–61
Arbeiderpartiet 49 43 40–46 38–48 38–49 36–50
Fremskrittspartiet 27 21 19–25 17–26 16–26 15–28
Senterpartiet 19 20 17–24 16–24 16–25 15–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 11 9–14 9–14 9–14 7–16
Venstre 8 10 8–12 7–13 7–13 3–15
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–8 1–9 1–9 0–10
Rødt 1 2 1–8 1–9 1–9 1–10
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 0–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.2% 100%  
43 0.1% 99.8%  
44 0.6% 99.6%  
45 0.5% 99.1% Last Result
46 0.8% 98.6%  
47 5% 98%  
48 6% 92%  
49 7% 86%  
50 8% 79%  
51 5% 71%  
52 15% 66%  
53 21% 50% Median
54 12% 29%  
55 3% 17%  
56 8% 14%  
57 3% 7%  
58 1.3% 4%  
59 0.2% 2%  
60 0.8% 2%  
61 1.4% 2%  
62 0% 0.1%  
63 0% 0.1%  
64 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
34 0% 100%  
35 0% 99.9%  
36 0.6% 99.9%  
37 0.8% 99.3%  
38 5% 98%  
39 3% 93%  
40 8% 90%  
41 11% 82%  
42 13% 72%  
43 29% 59% Median
44 10% 31%  
45 11% 21%  
46 2% 10%  
47 2% 9%  
48 4% 7%  
49 0.2% 3% Last Result
50 2% 2%  
51 0.1% 0.3%  
52 0.2% 0.2%  
53 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 0.2% 99.5%  
16 2% 99.3%  
17 2% 97%  
18 3% 95%  
19 20% 92%  
20 19% 72%  
21 21% 53% Median
22 7% 32%  
23 11% 25%  
24 3% 13%  
25 3% 10%  
26 5% 7%  
27 0.8% 2% Last Result
28 1.3% 1.5%  
29 0.2% 0.2%  
30 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0% 99.9%  
15 0.7% 99.9%  
16 7% 99.2%  
17 8% 92%  
18 8% 83%  
19 8% 76% Last Result
20 19% 68% Median
21 17% 48%  
22 20% 31%  
23 0.9% 11%  
24 6% 10%  
25 4% 5%  
26 1.0% 1.1%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.1% 100%  
3 0% 99.9%  
4 0% 99.9%  
5 0% 99.9%  
6 0% 99.9%  
7 0.6% 99.9%  
8 2% 99.3%  
9 14% 98%  
10 13% 83%  
11 25% 70% Last Result, Median
12 21% 45%  
13 9% 25%  
14 14% 15%  
15 0.5% 1.1%  
16 0.6% 0.7%  
17 0% 0.1%  
18 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 0.4% 100%  
3 0.4% 99.6%  
4 0% 99.2%  
5 0% 99.2%  
6 0% 99.2%  
7 6% 99.2%  
8 16% 93% Last Result
9 20% 77%  
10 14% 57% Median
11 26% 44%  
12 8% 18%  
13 8% 9%  
14 0.5% 1.2%  
15 0.5% 0.7%  
16 0.1% 0.2%  
17 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 8% 99.4%  
2 10% 92%  
3 45% 82% Median
4 0% 36%  
5 0% 36%  
6 0.1% 36%  
7 16% 36%  
8 11% 20% Last Result
9 7% 9%  
10 1.0% 1.4%  
11 0.3% 0.3%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 17% 100% Last Result
2 55% 83% Median
3 0% 28%  
4 0% 28%  
5 0% 28%  
6 1.2% 28%  
7 14% 26%  
8 7% 13%  
9 5% 6%  
10 0.9% 1.0%  
11 0.1% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100%  
1 25% 99.4% Last Result
2 38% 74% Median
3 2% 36%  
4 0% 35%  
5 0% 35%  
6 0.3% 35%  
7 23% 35%  
8 7% 11%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.2% 0.2%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 108 100% 104–113 102–114 101–114 98–117
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 91 96% 86–96 85–98 84–99 81–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 87 74% 84–93 82–95 82–96 79–97
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 82 34% 80–87 78–89 76–92 74–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 40% 76–86 75–88 75–90 73–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 81 82 26% 76–85 74–87 73–87 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 78 4% 73–83 71–84 70–85 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 79 3% 71–83 69–83 69–85 69–87
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 73 0.1% 69–77 68–78 67–82 64–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 75 0.1% 69–81 67–81 67–81 66–83
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 72 0% 66–75 65–78 63–79 61–82
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 67 0% 64–72 62–73 61–75 59–77
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 65 0% 63–72 62–74 60–74 57–78
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 58–67 57–68 57–70 56–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 54 0% 51–59 49–60 48–61 46–61
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 34 0% 31–38 31–40 28–41 27–44

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
94 0% 100%  
95 0% 99.9%  
96 0% 99.9%  
97 0.1% 99.9%  
98 0.4% 99.8%  
99 0.3% 99.4%  
100 0.4% 99.1%  
101 2% 98.8%  
102 4% 97%  
103 2% 93%  
104 8% 91%  
105 2% 84%  
106 28% 82%  
107 3% 54% Last Result, Median
108 13% 50%  
109 6% 38%  
110 8% 31%  
111 4% 24%  
112 9% 19%  
113 3% 11%  
114 6% 8%  
115 1.0% 2%  
116 0.1% 1.1%  
117 0.6% 1.0%  
118 0% 0.4%  
119 0.1% 0.4%  
120 0.3% 0.3%  
121 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
80 0% 100%  
81 0.6% 99.9%  
82 0.2% 99.3%  
83 0.3% 99.1%  
84 3% 98.8%  
85 3% 96% Majority
86 10% 94%  
87 3% 84%  
88 3% 81%  
89 10% 78% Last Result, Median
90 11% 68%  
91 9% 57%  
92 14% 48%  
93 5% 34%  
94 6% 29%  
95 8% 22%  
96 5% 14%  
97 0.5% 9%  
98 4% 8%  
99 4% 5%  
100 0.3% 0.4%  
101 0% 0.1%  
102 0.1% 0.1%  
103 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0% 99.9%  
77 0.3% 99.9%  
78 0.1% 99.6%  
79 0.6% 99.5%  
80 1.0% 98.9%  
81 0.1% 98%  
82 4% 98%  
83 0.7% 94%  
84 19% 94%  
85 15% 74% Majority
86 3% 60%  
87 7% 56% Median
88 16% 49% Last Result
89 8% 34%  
90 1.3% 25%  
91 2% 24%  
92 8% 22%  
93 7% 14%  
94 2% 7%  
95 1.2% 5%  
96 3% 4%  
97 1.0% 1.4%  
98 0.3% 0.5%  
99 0.1% 0.2%  
100 0% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0.1% 100%  
73 0.4% 99.9%  
74 0.4% 99.6%  
75 1.0% 99.2%  
76 1.4% 98%  
77 2% 97%  
78 2% 95%  
79 2% 93%  
80 7% 91% Last Result
81 19% 84%  
82 17% 65%  
83 7% 48%  
84 7% 41% Median
85 10% 34% Majority
86 12% 24%  
87 5% 12%  
88 1.1% 8%  
89 2% 7%  
90 0.9% 5%  
91 0.5% 4%  
92 2% 3%  
93 0.9% 1.3%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.2%  
97 0.1% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.1% 99.8%  
72 0.1% 99.7%  
73 0.4% 99.6%  
74 1.0% 99.2%  
75 4% 98%  
76 6% 94%  
77 2% 88%  
78 7% 86%  
79 1.1% 79% Median
80 4% 78%  
81 9% 74%  
82 7% 65%  
83 14% 58%  
84 4% 44%  
85 14% 40% Majority
86 18% 26%  
87 2% 8%  
88 3% 6% Last Result
89 0.2% 3%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.9% 1.1%  
92 0.1% 0.2%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 1.0% 99.5%  
73 3% 98.6%  
74 1.2% 96%  
75 2% 95%  
76 7% 93%  
77 8% 86%  
78 2% 78% Median
79 1.3% 76%  
80 8% 75%  
81 16% 66% Last Result
82 7% 51%  
83 3% 44%  
84 15% 40%  
85 19% 26% Majority
86 0.7% 6%  
87 4% 6%  
88 0.1% 2%  
89 1.0% 2%  
90 0.6% 1.1%  
91 0.1% 0.5%  
92 0.3% 0.4%  
93 0% 0.1%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 0% 99.9%  
69 0.3% 99.9%  
70 4% 99.6%  
71 4% 95%  
72 0.5% 92%  
73 5% 91%  
74 8% 86%  
75 6% 78%  
76 5% 71% Median
77 14% 66%  
78 9% 52%  
79 11% 43%  
80 10% 32% Last Result
81 3% 22%  
82 3% 19%  
83 10% 16%  
84 3% 6%  
85 3% 4% Majority
86 0.3% 1.2%  
87 0.2% 0.9%  
88 0.6% 0.7%  
89 0% 0.1%  
90 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
63 0% 100%  
64 0% 99.9%  
65 0% 99.9%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.1% 99.9%  
68 0.1% 99.8%  
69 6% 99.7%  
70 1.2% 94%  
71 4% 93%  
72 3% 88%  
73 4% 85%  
74 8% 81%  
75 5% 73%  
76 6% 68% Median
77 4% 62%  
78 3% 58%  
79 9% 55%  
80 10% 46% Last Result
81 2% 37%  
82 15% 34%  
83 16% 20%  
84 0.6% 3%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.1% 0.8%  
87 0.3% 0.7%  
88 0.4% 0.5%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.2% 100%  
63 0.2% 99.8%  
64 0.3% 99.7%  
65 0.2% 99.4%  
66 0.7% 99.1%  
67 2% 98%  
68 2% 97%  
69 7% 94%  
70 3% 87%  
71 7% 85%  
72 20% 78% Last Result
73 12% 57%  
74 19% 45% Median
75 10% 26%  
76 5% 16%  
77 4% 11%  
78 2% 7%  
79 0.6% 5%  
80 0.4% 4%  
81 1.3% 4%  
82 0.9% 3%  
83 1.4% 2%  
84 0.1% 0.2%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
62 0.1% 100%  
63 0% 99.9%  
64 0.1% 99.9%  
65 0.1% 99.8%  
66 0.2% 99.6%  
67 6% 99.4%  
68 2% 94%  
69 9% 92%  
70 2% 83%  
71 7% 81%  
72 4% 75%  
73 13% 71%  
74 5% 58% Median
75 16% 53%  
76 9% 37%  
77 2% 28%  
78 12% 26%  
79 0.6% 13% Last Result
80 2% 13%  
81 9% 11%  
82 0.3% 2%  
83 2% 2%  
84 0% 0.1%  
85 0% 0.1% Majority
86 0% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
57 0% 100%  
58 0% 99.9%  
59 0% 99.9%  
60 0.3% 99.9%  
61 0.3% 99.6%  
62 2% 99.3%  
63 1.0% 98%  
64 1.1% 97%  
65 3% 96%  
66 5% 92%  
67 5% 87%  
68 2% 82% Median
69 7% 80%  
70 9% 73%  
71 12% 64%  
72 20% 52%  
73 5% 32%  
74 16% 27%  
75 3% 11%  
76 0.6% 8%  
77 1.5% 7% Last Result
78 3% 5%  
79 2% 3%  
80 0.2% 0.9%  
81 0.1% 0.7%  
82 0.6% 0.6%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.1% 99.8%  
59 1.0% 99.7%  
60 0.6% 98.7%  
61 2% 98%  
62 2% 96%  
63 2% 94%  
64 10% 92%  
65 15% 82%  
66 3% 66% Median
67 15% 63%  
68 8% 49%  
69 14% 41%  
70 14% 28%  
71 3% 13%  
72 4% 10%  
73 2% 6%  
74 0.8% 4%  
75 1.0% 3%  
76 0.8% 2% Last Result
77 1.2% 1.3%  
78 0.1% 0.2%  
79 0% 0.1%  
80 0% 0.1%  
81 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.4% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.5%  
58 0.3% 99.3%  
59 0.3% 99.0%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 0.6% 97% Last Result
62 5% 96%  
63 8% 92%  
64 23% 83%  
65 11% 61%  
66 8% 49% Median
67 8% 42%  
68 4% 34%  
69 8% 29%  
70 2% 22%  
71 3% 19%  
72 7% 17%  
73 2% 9%  
74 5% 7%  
75 0.4% 2%  
76 0.9% 2%  
77 0.1% 1.0%  
78 0.9% 1.0%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.1% 99.8%  
56 1.4% 99.7%  
57 3% 98%  
58 11% 95%  
59 3% 84%  
60 5% 82%  
61 13% 77%  
62 10% 64%  
63 5% 53% Median
64 16% 48%  
65 4% 32%  
66 9% 28%  
67 12% 20%  
68 3% 8% Last Result
69 2% 4%  
70 0.2% 3%  
71 0.3% 2%  
72 2% 2%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
44 0.1% 100%  
45 0% 99.9%  
46 0.4% 99.8%  
47 0.5% 99.5%  
48 2% 98.9%  
49 5% 97%  
50 0.9% 92%  
51 11% 91%  
52 9% 80%  
53 14% 71%  
54 22% 57% Median
55 3% 35%  
56 13% 31%  
57 2% 19%  
58 2% 17%  
59 10% 15%  
60 0.8% 5% Last Result
61 4% 5%  
62 0.3% 0.4%  
63 0% 0.2%  
64 0.1% 0.1%  
65 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
23 0.2% 100%  
24 0.1% 99.8%  
25 0.1% 99.7%  
26 0% 99.6%  
27 2% 99.6%  
28 0.4% 98%  
29 1.0% 97%  
30 0.8% 96%  
31 7% 95%  
32 17% 89%  
33 7% 71% Median
34 18% 64%  
35 8% 46% Last Result
36 8% 38%  
37 9% 30%  
38 13% 22%  
39 3% 9%  
40 3% 6%  
41 0.8% 3%  
42 0.5% 2%  
43 0.4% 1.3%  
44 0.7% 0.9%  
45 0.1% 0.1%  
46 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations