Opinion Poll by Norstat, 30 January–5 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 29.0% 27.1–30.9% 26.6–31.5% 26.1–31.9% 25.3–32.9%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 22.4% 20.7–24.2% 20.2–24.7% 19.8–25.1% 19.1–26.0%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.1% 11.8–14.7% 11.4–15.1% 11.1–15.5% 10.5–16.2%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 11.2% 10.0–12.7% 9.7–13.1% 9.4–13.4% 8.8–14.1%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 8.6% 7.5–9.9% 7.2–10.2% 7.0–10.6% 6.5–11.2%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.9% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.1% 2.9–5.4% 2.5–5.9%
Venstre 4.4% 3.8% 3.1–4.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.8–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.6%
Rødt 2.4% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.7–4.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 52 49–56 48–57 47–58 45–59
Arbeiderpartiet 49 41 38–45 37–46 36–47 35–48
Fremskrittspartiet 27 23 21–27 20–27 20–28 18–29
Senterpartiet 19 21 18–23 17–24 17–24 16–26
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 16 14–18 13–19 13–19 12–20
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 2–9 2–9 1–9 1–10
Venstre 8 2 2–8 2–8 2–9 2–9
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–9 1–9 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–7 1–8

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
43 0.1% 100%  
44 0.4% 99.9%  
45 0.9% 99.5% Last Result
46 1.1% 98.6%  
47 1.4% 98%  
48 4% 96%  
49 14% 93%  
50 12% 79%  
51 17% 67%  
52 8% 50% Median
53 19% 42%  
54 5% 24%  
55 6% 19%  
56 6% 12%  
57 3% 6%  
58 2% 3%  
59 0.5% 0.8%  
60 0.3% 0.3%  
61 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
33 0.1% 100%  
34 0.2% 99.9%  
35 0.5% 99.7%  
36 2% 99.2%  
37 3% 97%  
38 6% 94%  
39 8% 88%  
40 12% 80%  
41 28% 68% Median
42 16% 40%  
43 7% 24%  
44 6% 17%  
45 3% 11%  
46 3% 8%  
47 4% 5%  
48 1.2% 1.4%  
49 0.1% 0.2% Last Result
50 0.1% 0.1%  
51 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.7% 100%  
19 1.1% 99.3%  
20 4% 98%  
21 6% 94%  
22 12% 88%  
23 27% 75% Median
24 17% 48%  
25 10% 32%  
26 7% 22%  
27 11% 15% Last Result
28 2% 4%  
29 2% 2%  
30 0.2% 0.4%  
31 0.1% 0.2%  
32 0.2% 0.2%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
15 0.3% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.6%  
17 4% 98.9%  
18 9% 95%  
19 11% 86% Last Result
20 16% 76%  
21 33% 60% Median
22 12% 27%  
23 7% 15%  
24 6% 8%  
25 0.9% 1.5%  
26 0.3% 0.5%  
27 0.2% 0.2%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
11 0.2% 100% Last Result
12 0.8% 99.8%  
13 6% 99.1%  
14 12% 93%  
15 23% 82%  
16 28% 59% Median
17 14% 31%  
18 12% 17%  
19 4% 6%  
20 1.3% 2%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100%  
1 3% 99.9%  
2 7% 97%  
3 40% 89% Median
4 0% 49%  
5 0% 49%  
6 0.2% 49%  
7 15% 49%  
8 23% 34% Last Result
9 8% 11%  
10 2% 2%  
11 0.3% 0.4%  
12 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 0.3% 100%  
2 67% 99.7% Median
3 4% 33%  
4 0% 29%  
5 0% 29%  
6 0.1% 29%  
7 9% 29%  
8 16% 20% Last Result
9 3% 4%  
10 0.3% 0.4%  
11 0% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 12% 100% Last Result
2 39% 88% Median
3 3% 50%  
4 0.6% 47%  
5 0% 46%  
6 0.1% 46%  
7 8% 46%  
8 26% 38%  
9 11% 12%  
10 0.9% 1.1%  
11 0.2% 0.2%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 55% 100% Last Result, Median
2 40% 45%  
3 0% 4%  
4 0% 4%  
5 0% 4%  
6 0% 4%  
7 2% 4%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0.2% 0.2%  
10 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 107 105 100% 102–110 101–111 100–112 98–113
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 90 91% 85–94 84–95 83–96 81–98
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 88 84% 84–92 83–93 82–93 79–94
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 88 84 47% 81–89 81–90 79–91 78–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 85 53% 80–88 79–88 78–90 76–91
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 83 37% 78–87 77–87 76–88 74–89
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 79 9% 75–84 74–85 73–86 71–88
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 79 4% 76–84 75–84 74–85 73–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 77 3% 73–83 72–84 71–85 69–86
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 75 0.2% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–84
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 72 0% 67–77 66–78 65–78 63–80
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 67 0% 63–72 62–73 60–74 58–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 64 0% 59–67 58–68 57–69 56–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 62 0% 58–66 57–68 56–68 54–70
Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 61 60 0% 58–65 56–67 55–68 53–70
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 54–61 53–63 52–63 50–64
Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre 35 30 0% 25–34 24–36 23–37 22–40

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
95 0% 100%  
96 0.1% 99.9%  
97 0.2% 99.8%  
98 0.7% 99.6%  
99 1.0% 98.9%  
100 2% 98%  
101 3% 96% Median
102 8% 93%  
103 13% 85%  
104 19% 72%  
105 9% 53%  
106 9% 44%  
107 10% 35% Last Result
108 9% 25%  
109 4% 15%  
110 5% 11%  
111 4% 7%  
112 2% 3%  
113 0.6% 1.0%  
114 0.2% 0.4%  
115 0.1% 0.2%  
116 0.1% 0.1%  
117 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
78 0.1% 100%  
79 0.1% 99.9%  
80 0.2% 99.8%  
81 0.7% 99.6%  
82 0.3% 99.0% Median
83 3% 98.6%  
84 5% 95%  
85 6% 91% Majority
86 6% 85%  
87 4% 79%  
88 13% 74%  
89 5% 61% Last Result
90 17% 56%  
91 16% 39%  
92 5% 23%  
93 5% 17%  
94 4% 12%  
95 4% 8%  
96 2% 4%  
97 1.0% 2%  
98 0.5% 0.8%  
99 0.2% 0.3%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
76 0.1% 100%  
77 0.1% 99.8%  
78 0.1% 99.7%  
79 0.2% 99.6%  
80 0.2% 99.4%  
81 0.8% 99.2%  
82 3% 98%  
83 5% 96% Median
84 7% 90%  
85 10% 84% Majority
86 8% 74%  
87 8% 67%  
88 13% 59% Last Result
89 9% 46%  
90 14% 36%  
91 7% 22%  
92 11% 16%  
93 4% 5%  
94 0.3% 0.5%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0.1% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
75 0% 100%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.2% 99.7%  
78 0.6% 99.5%  
79 2% 99.0%  
80 2% 97% Median
81 10% 96%  
82 14% 86%  
83 15% 72%  
84 10% 57%  
85 7% 47% Majority
86 13% 40%  
87 8% 27%  
88 7% 19% Last Result
89 4% 12%  
90 3% 8%  
91 3% 5%  
92 0.9% 2%  
93 0.6% 1.0%  
94 0.2% 0.4%  
95 0.1% 0.2%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0.1% 99.9%  
75 0.2% 99.8%  
76 0.6% 99.6%  
77 0.9% 99.0%  
78 3% 98%  
79 3% 95%  
80 4% 92%  
81 7% 88% Last Result, Median
82 8% 81%  
83 13% 73%  
84 7% 60%  
85 10% 53% Majority
86 15% 43%  
87 14% 28%  
88 10% 14%  
89 2% 4%  
90 2% 3%  
91 0.6% 1.0%  
92 0.2% 0.5%  
93 0.2% 0.3%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
71 0% 100%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.2% 99.8%  
74 0.3% 99.6%  
75 1.0% 99.3%  
76 2% 98%  
77 3% 96%  
78 4% 93%  
79 7% 89%  
80 9% 82% Last Result, Median
81 8% 73%  
82 12% 65%  
83 9% 53%  
84 7% 44%  
85 19% 37% Majority
86 6% 18%  
87 8% 11%  
88 2% 3%  
89 0.8% 1.2%  
90 0.2% 0.4%  
91 0.2% 0.3%  
92 0% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.2% 99.9%  
71 0.5% 99.7%  
72 1.0% 99.2%  
73 2% 98%  
74 4% 96%  
75 4% 92%  
76 5% 88%  
77 5% 83%  
78 16% 77%  
79 17% 61% Median
80 5% 44% Last Result
81 13% 39%  
82 4% 26%  
83 6% 21%  
84 6% 15%  
85 5% 9% Majority
86 3% 5%  
87 0.3% 1.4%  
88 0.7% 1.0%  
89 0.2% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.2%  
91 0.1% 0.1%  
92 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0% 99.9%  
72 0.1% 99.9%  
73 0.3% 99.8%  
74 4% 99.5%  
75 4% 96%  
76 12% 91%  
77 6% 79% Median
78 14% 73%  
79 14% 59%  
80 10% 45% Last Result
81 9% 35%  
82 9% 26%  
83 6% 17%  
84 7% 11%  
85 2% 4% Majority
86 1.3% 2%  
87 0.2% 0.8%  
88 0.1% 0.5%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.1% 0.3%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0.1% 0.1%  
93 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0% 100%  
68 0.1% 99.9%  
69 0.4% 99.8%  
70 0.6% 99.4%  
71 2% 98.8%  
72 2% 97%  
73 6% 95%  
74 4% 89%  
75 6% 85%  
76 7% 78%  
77 22% 71%  
78 10% 49% Median
79 9% 39% Last Result
80 8% 30%  
81 7% 22%  
82 4% 14%  
83 4% 11%  
84 3% 6%  
85 2% 3% Majority
86 0.6% 0.9%  
87 0.2% 0.4%  
88 0.1% 0.2%  
89 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
66 0.1% 100%  
67 0.3% 99.9%  
68 0.7% 99.6%  
69 0.6% 98.9%  
70 2% 98%  
71 6% 96%  
72 10% 90% Last Result
73 8% 81%  
74 17% 73%  
75 7% 55% Median
76 14% 49%  
77 9% 35%  
78 4% 26%  
79 5% 22%  
80 5% 17%  
81 4% 12%  
82 6% 8%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 1.2% 1.4%  
85 0.1% 0.2% Majority
86 0.1% 0.1%  
87 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
60 0% 100%  
61 0.1% 99.9%  
62 0.2% 99.8%  
63 0.6% 99.6%  
64 1.3% 99.0%  
65 2% 98%  
66 4% 96%  
67 7% 92% Median
68 5% 85%  
69 7% 79%  
70 4% 72%  
71 10% 67%  
72 11% 57%  
73 10% 47%  
74 11% 37%  
75 5% 26%  
76 4% 21%  
77 11% 18% Last Result
78 5% 6%  
79 0.5% 2%  
80 0.8% 1.0%  
81 0.1% 0.2%  
82 0.1% 0.1%  
83 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.2% 99.9%  
58 0.4% 99.7%  
59 0.6% 99.3%  
60 2% 98.7%  
61 1.4% 97%  
62 3% 95%  
63 3% 92%  
64 8% 89%  
65 15% 81% Median
66 11% 66%  
67 6% 55%  
68 7% 49%  
69 17% 42%  
70 8% 26%  
71 7% 17%  
72 4% 10%  
73 3% 7%  
74 1.2% 4%  
75 2% 2%  
76 0.2% 0.5% Last Result
77 0.2% 0.3%  
78 0% 0.1%  
79 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.1% 99.9%  
55 0.2% 99.8%  
56 0.6% 99.6%  
57 2% 99.0%  
58 4% 97%  
59 5% 93%  
60 4% 89% Median
61 9% 85%  
62 10% 75% Last Result
63 9% 65%  
64 9% 56%  
65 19% 47%  
66 13% 28%  
67 8% 15%  
68 3% 7%  
69 2% 4%  
70 1.0% 2%  
71 0.7% 1.1%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
52 0% 100%  
53 0.1% 99.9%  
54 0.5% 99.8%  
55 1.0% 99.3%  
56 2% 98%  
57 5% 97%  
58 4% 91%  
59 7% 87%  
60 6% 80%  
61 12% 74%  
62 26% 62% Median
63 11% 36%  
64 6% 26%  
65 6% 19%  
66 5% 14%  
67 3% 8%  
68 3% 5% Last Result
69 1.3% 2%  
70 0.6% 0.9%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.1%  
73 0% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Høyre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
51 0% 100%  
52 0.2% 99.9%  
53 0.5% 99.8%  
54 0.8% 99.3%  
55 1.3% 98%  
56 3% 97%  
57 4% 95% Median
58 14% 91%  
59 10% 77%  
60 20% 67%  
61 9% 47% Last Result
62 10% 37%  
63 9% 28%  
64 6% 19%  
65 4% 13%  
66 4% 9%  
67 2% 5%  
68 1.4% 3%  
69 1.0% 2%  
70 0.8% 1.1%  
71 0.1% 0.3%  
72 0.1% 0.2%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.3% 99.9%  
50 0.4% 99.6%  
51 0.7% 99.2%  
52 2% 98%  
53 4% 96%  
54 7% 92%  
55 12% 86%  
56 19% 74%  
57 13% 55% Median
58 10% 41%  
59 10% 31%  
60 8% 21% Last Result
61 4% 13%  
62 4% 9%  
63 4% 5%  
64 0.7% 1.1%  
65 0.1% 0.4%  
66 0.2% 0.3%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.4% 99.9%  
22 1.4% 99.5%  
23 2% 98%  
24 4% 97%  
25 7% 92%  
26 12% 85% Median
27 5% 73%  
28 5% 68%  
29 7% 63%  
30 14% 56%  
31 9% 42%  
32 8% 33%  
33 10% 25%  
34 5% 15%  
35 5% 10% Last Result
36 2% 5%  
37 1.4% 3%  
38 0.5% 1.5%  
39 0.4% 1.0%  
40 0.5% 0.6%  
41 0.1% 0.1%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations