Opinion Poll by Respons Analyse, 5–7 February 2018

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

Graph with voting intentions not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 25.0% 27.9% 26.2–29.8% 25.7–30.3% 25.2–30.8% 24.4–31.7%
Arbeiderpartiet 27.4% 24.0% 22.3–25.7% 21.8–26.3% 21.4–26.7% 20.6–27.6%
Fremskrittspartiet 15.2% 13.6% 12.3–15.1% 11.9–15.5% 11.6–15.8% 11.0–16.6%
Senterpartiet 10.3% 10.9% 9.7–12.2% 9.4–12.6% 9.1–13.0% 8.6–13.6%
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 6.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.5%
Venstre 4.4% 4.5% 3.7–5.5% 3.5–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.0–6.5%
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 3.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Kristelig Folkeparti 4.2% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Rødt 2.4% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

Graph with seats not yet produced

Graph with seating plan not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre 45 51 47–55 46–55 45–56 43–59
Arbeiderpartiet 49 44 41–46 40–48 39–48 38–50
Fremskrittspartiet 27 25 22–27 21–29 21–29 19–30
Senterpartiet 19 19 18–22 17–23 17–23 15–25
Sosialistisk Venstreparti 11 13 11–15 10–16 10–16 9–17
Venstre 8 8 2–10 2–10 2–11 2–12
Miljøpartiet De Grønne 1 2 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–9
Kristelig Folkeparti 8 3 1–8 1–8 1–9 1–10
Rødt 1 2 1–7 1–8 1–8 1–9

Høyre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Høyre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
42 0.1% 100%  
43 0.4% 99.8%  
44 1.5% 99.5%  
45 2% 98% Last Result
46 3% 96%  
47 4% 94%  
48 16% 90%  
49 13% 74%  
50 8% 61%  
51 14% 53% Median
52 10% 40%  
53 14% 30%  
54 6% 16%  
55 5% 10%  
56 2% 5%  
57 1.3% 2%  
58 0.7% 1.2%  
59 0.1% 0.5%  
60 0.2% 0.4%  
61 0.2% 0.2%  
62 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Arbeiderpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
36 0.1% 100%  
37 0.2% 99.9%  
38 1.0% 99.7%  
39 2% 98.7%  
40 7% 97%  
41 10% 90%  
42 16% 80%  
43 13% 65%  
44 13% 52% Median
45 19% 39%  
46 11% 20%  
47 3% 9%  
48 3% 5%  
49 1.3% 2% Last Result
50 0.6% 1.0%  
51 0.2% 0.4%  
52 0.1% 0.2%  
53 0.1% 0.1%  
54 0% 0%  

Fremskrittspartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fremskrittspartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.7% 99.9%  
20 1.4% 99.1%  
21 4% 98%  
22 6% 94%  
23 15% 87%  
24 15% 73%  
25 29% 58% Median
26 12% 29%  
27 8% 17% Last Result
28 3% 9%  
29 5% 6%  
30 0.6% 0.9%  
31 0.2% 0.3%  
32 0.1% 0.1%  
33 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Senterpartiet page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.9%  
16 1.5% 99.4%  
17 7% 98%  
18 16% 90%  
19 31% 74% Last Result, Median
20 14% 43%  
21 15% 29%  
22 7% 14%  
23 4% 7%  
24 1.3% 2%  
25 1.0% 1.2%  
26 0.1% 0.2%  
27 0% 0.1%  
28 0% 0%  

Sosialistisk Venstreparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Sosialistisk Venstreparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
9 0.7% 100%  
10 5% 99.3%  
11 12% 94% Last Result
12 20% 83%  
13 17% 62% Median
14 27% 45%  
15 13% 18%  
16 4% 6%  
17 1.5% 2%  
18 0.4% 0.5%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Venstre

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Venstre page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
2 17% 100%  
3 1.3% 83%  
4 0% 82%  
5 0% 82%  
6 0% 82%  
7 6% 82%  
8 35% 76% Last Result, Median
9 29% 41%  
10 10% 13%  
11 2% 3%  
12 0.7% 0.8%  
13 0.1% 0.1%  
14 0% 0%  

Miljøpartiet De Grønne

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Miljøpartiet De Grønne page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 17% 100% Last Result
2 46% 83% Median
3 6% 38%  
4 0.1% 31%  
5 0% 31%  
6 0% 31%  
7 13% 31%  
8 14% 18%  
9 4% 4%  
10 0.4% 0.5%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Kristelig Folkeparti

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Kristelig Folkeparti page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100%  
1 20% 99.6%  
2 11% 79%  
3 44% 68% Median
4 0% 24%  
5 0% 24%  
6 0% 24%  
7 5% 24%  
8 15% 19% Last Result
9 4% 4%  
10 0.6% 0.6%  
11 0.1% 0.1%  
12 0% 0%  

Rødt

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rødt page.

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
1 28% 100% Last Result
2 58% 72% Median
3 0% 14%  
4 0% 14%  
5 0% 14%  
6 0% 14%  
7 7% 14%  
8 6% 7%  
9 1.0% 1.1%  
10 0.1% 0.1%  
11 0% 0%  

Coalitions

Graph with coalitions seats not yet produced

Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 107 106 100% 101–111 100–112 99–113 97–114
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 89 90 95% 86–95 84–96 83–97 81–99
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 88 87 71% 82–92 80–93 79–93 77–96
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 88 83 42% 79–88 78–90 77–92 75–93
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 81 82 29% 77–87 76–89 76–90 73–92
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre 80 83 37% 77–87 76–89 75–89 73–92
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 80 80 12% 75–85 74–86 73–89 72–90
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt 80 79 5% 74–83 73–85 72–86 70–88
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 79 76 0.6% 72–81 71–82 70–83 68–85
Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet 72 75 0.6% 71–80 70–81 69–82 67–85
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne 77 71 0% 66–75 65–77 64–78 62–81
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti 76 66 0% 62–71 61–72 61–74 59–76
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt 62 63 0% 58–68 57–69 56–70 55–72
Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet 68 63 0% 59–67 59–68 58–69 56–71
Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 61 62 0% 57–66 56–68 54–69 52–71
Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti 60 57 0% 53–60 52–61 51–62 50–64
Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti 35 31 0% 26–35 25–36 24–38 22–39

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
93 0.1% 100%  
94 0% 99.9%  
95 0.1% 99.9%  
96 0.2% 99.8%  
97 0.4% 99.6%  
98 0.8% 99.1%  
99 2% 98%  
100 3% 96%  
101 4% 93%  
102 4% 89%  
103 11% 85%  
104 5% 74%  
105 11% 70%  
106 14% 59% Median
107 9% 45% Last Result
108 12% 36%  
109 3% 24%  
110 9% 21%  
111 6% 12%  
112 2% 6%  
113 2% 4%  
114 1.2% 2%  
115 0.3% 0.5%  
116 0.1% 0.2%  
117 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
79 0.2% 100%  
80 0.1% 99.8%  
81 0.5% 99.6%  
82 0.8% 99.1%  
83 0.9% 98%  
84 3% 97%  
85 3% 95% Majority
86 4% 92%  
87 7% 87%  
88 7% 80%  
89 18% 73% Last Result, Median
90 8% 55%  
91 14% 47%  
92 10% 33%  
93 3% 23%  
94 8% 20%  
95 4% 11%  
96 4% 7%  
97 1.1% 3%  
98 0.6% 2%  
99 0.8% 0.9%  
100 0.1% 0.1%  
101 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
73 0% 100%  
74 0% 99.9%  
75 0% 99.9%  
76 0.2% 99.9%  
77 0.7% 99.6%  
78 0.3% 99.0%  
79 3% 98.7%  
80 2% 96%  
81 2% 94%  
82 6% 92%  
83 6% 85%  
84 8% 79%  
85 9% 71% Majority
86 10% 62%  
87 15% 52% Median
88 5% 38% Last Result
89 11% 32%  
90 8% 22%  
91 3% 13%  
92 5% 11%  
93 4% 6%  
94 0.8% 2%  
95 0.5% 1.0%  
96 0.5% 0.5%  
97 0% 0.1%  
98 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.1% 99.9%  
74 0.2% 99.9%  
75 0.7% 99.7%  
76 0.4% 99.0%  
77 1.5% 98.6%  
78 6% 97%  
79 3% 91%  
80 6% 88%  
81 16% 81% Median
82 5% 65%  
83 11% 60%  
84 8% 49%  
85 11% 42% Majority
86 6% 30%  
87 10% 24%  
88 5% 14% Last Result
89 2% 9%  
90 2% 7%  
91 0.9% 5%  
92 3% 4%  
93 0.7% 1.1%  
94 0.2% 0.3%  
95 0.1% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
72 0% 100%  
73 0.5% 99.9%  
74 0.5% 99.5%  
75 0.8% 99.0%  
76 4% 98%  
77 5% 94%  
78 3% 89%  
79 8% 87%  
80 11% 78% Median
81 5% 68% Last Result
82 15% 62%  
83 10% 48%  
84 9% 38%  
85 8% 29% Majority
86 6% 21%  
87 6% 15%  
88 2% 8%  
89 2% 6%  
90 3% 4%  
91 0.3% 1.3%  
92 0.7% 1.0%  
93 0.2% 0.4%  
94 0% 0.1%  
95 0% 0.1%  
96 0% 0.1%  
97 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet – Venstre

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
70 0% 100%  
71 0.1% 99.9%  
72 0.2% 99.8%  
73 0.2% 99.6%  
74 1.1% 99.4%  
75 1.0% 98%  
76 3% 97%  
77 4% 94%  
78 3% 90%  
79 5% 87%  
80 8% 81% Last Result
81 10% 74%  
82 8% 64%  
83 12% 56%  
84 7% 44% Median
85 6% 37% Majority
86 13% 30%  
87 8% 17%  
88 3% 9%  
89 4% 6%  
90 0.9% 2%  
91 0.5% 1.2%  
92 0.6% 0.7%  
93 0.1% 0.1%  
94 0.1% 0.1%  
95 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0% 100%  
70 0.1% 99.9%  
71 0.3% 99.8%  
72 2% 99.5%  
73 0.7% 98%  
74 2% 97%  
75 8% 95%  
76 5% 87%  
77 8% 82%  
78 10% 74% Median
79 8% 64%  
80 15% 55% Last Result
81 8% 40%  
82 8% 32%  
83 4% 24%  
84 9% 21%  
85 7% 12% Majority
86 1.1% 5%  
87 1.0% 4%  
88 0.6% 3%  
89 2% 3%  
90 0.4% 0.6%  
91 0.1% 0.2%  
92 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
69 0.1% 100%  
70 0.8% 99.9%  
71 0.6% 99.1%  
72 1.1% 98%  
73 4% 97%  
74 4% 93%  
75 8% 89%  
76 3% 80%  
77 10% 77%  
78 14% 67% Median
79 8% 53%  
80 18% 45% Last Result
81 7% 27%  
82 7% 20%  
83 4% 13%  
84 3% 8%  
85 3% 5% Majority
86 0.9% 3%  
87 0.8% 2%  
88 0.5% 0.9%  
89 0.1% 0.4%  
90 0.2% 0.2%  
91 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
67 0.1% 100%  
68 1.0% 99.8%  
69 0.7% 98.9%  
70 2% 98%  
71 2% 96%  
72 5% 94%  
73 10% 89%  
74 10% 79%  
75 8% 69%  
76 13% 62% Median
77 12% 49%  
78 17% 37%  
79 5% 20% Last Result
80 3% 14%  
81 5% 11%  
82 3% 6%  
83 1.3% 3%  
84 1.2% 2%  
85 0.2% 0.6% Majority
86 0.3% 0.4%  
87 0.1% 0.1%  
88 0% 0%  

Høyre – Fremskrittspartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
65 0.1% 100%  
66 0.1% 99.9%  
67 0.4% 99.7%  
68 1.0% 99.3%  
69 2% 98%  
70 3% 96%  
71 9% 93%  
72 5% 84% Last Result
73 7% 80%  
74 16% 73%  
75 10% 57%  
76 4% 47% Median
77 12% 43%  
78 17% 31%  
79 5% 15%  
80 3% 10%  
81 4% 7%  
82 1.2% 3%  
83 1.0% 2%  
84 0.3% 0.9%  
85 0.3% 0.6% Majority
86 0.1% 0.3%  
87 0% 0.1%  
88 0.1% 0.1%  
89 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
59 0.1% 100%  
60 0.1% 99.9%  
61 0.2% 99.8%  
62 0.5% 99.6%  
63 0.4% 99.1%  
64 4% 98.7%  
65 3% 95%  
66 3% 92%  
67 15% 89%  
68 9% 74% Median
69 8% 65%  
70 6% 56%  
71 8% 51%  
72 7% 43%  
73 15% 36%  
74 8% 21%  
75 4% 13%  
76 3% 9%  
77 4% 7% Last Result
78 1.0% 3%  
79 1.2% 2%  
80 0.3% 0.8%  
81 0.3% 0.6%  
82 0.2% 0.3%  
83 0% 0.1%  
84 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
56 0.1% 100%  
57 0.1% 99.9%  
58 0.3% 99.9%  
59 0.5% 99.5%  
60 0.9% 99.1%  
61 3% 98%  
62 5% 95%  
63 4% 90%  
64 6% 86%  
65 16% 80%  
66 16% 64% Median
67 9% 47%  
68 8% 39%  
69 10% 31%  
70 5% 21%  
71 9% 16%  
72 3% 8%  
73 2% 5%  
74 2% 3%  
75 0.7% 2%  
76 0.4% 0.9% Last Result
77 0.2% 0.5%  
78 0.2% 0.3%  
79 0.1% 0.1%  
80 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti – Miljøpartiet De Grønne – Rødt

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
53 0.1% 100%  
54 0.3% 99.8%  
55 1.2% 99.5%  
56 2% 98%  
57 2% 96%  
58 6% 94%  
59 9% 88%  
60 3% 79%  
61 12% 76% Median
62 9% 64% Last Result
63 14% 55%  
64 11% 41%  
65 5% 30%  
66 11% 26%  
67 4% 15%  
68 4% 11%  
69 3% 7%  
70 2% 4%  
71 0.8% 2%  
72 0.4% 0.9%  
73 0.2% 0.4%  
74 0.1% 0.2%  
75 0% 0.1%  
76 0.1% 0.1%  
77 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Senterpartiet

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
54 0% 100%  
55 0.3% 99.9%  
56 0.3% 99.6%  
57 1.3% 99.3%  
58 2% 98%  
59 7% 96%  
60 7% 89%  
61 10% 82%  
62 10% 72%  
63 18% 62% Median
64 15% 44%  
65 10% 29%  
66 8% 19%  
67 3% 11%  
68 4% 8% Last Result
69 2% 4%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.9%  
72 0.2% 0.4%  
73 0.1% 0.2%  
74 0.1% 0.1%  
75 0% 0%  

Høyre – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
50 0.1% 100%  
51 0.1% 99.9%  
52 0.6% 99.8%  
53 0.7% 99.2%  
54 2% 98%  
55 1.3% 97%  
56 4% 95%  
57 5% 91%  
58 3% 86%  
59 5% 83%  
60 10% 78%  
61 12% 67% Last Result
62 15% 55% Median
63 9% 40%  
64 7% 31%  
65 8% 24%  
66 7% 16%  
67 2% 9%  
68 4% 7%  
69 1.0% 3%  
70 2% 2%  
71 0.5% 0.8%  
72 0.1% 0.3%  
73 0.1% 0.1%  
74 0% 0%  

Arbeiderpartiet – Sosialistisk Venstreparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
48 0.1% 100%  
49 0.4% 99.9%  
50 0.8% 99.5%  
51 1.5% 98.7%  
52 4% 97%  
53 6% 94%  
54 11% 88%  
55 11% 76%  
56 10% 65%  
57 14% 55% Median
58 14% 41%  
59 11% 27%  
60 9% 16% Last Result
61 3% 7%  
62 2% 4%  
63 0.8% 2%  
64 0.6% 1.0%  
65 0.2% 0.4%  
66 0.1% 0.2%  
67 0.1% 0.1%  
68 0% 0%  

Senterpartiet – Venstre – Kristelig Folkeparti

Graph with seats probability mass function not yet produced

Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
20 0.1% 100%  
21 0.3% 99.9%  
22 0.7% 99.6%  
23 0.7% 98.9%  
24 3% 98%  
25 2% 95%  
26 4% 93%  
27 2% 89%  
28 13% 87%  
29 9% 74%  
30 15% 65% Median
31 10% 51%  
32 10% 40%  
33 12% 30%  
34 6% 19%  
35 4% 13% Last Result
36 4% 9%  
37 2% 4%  
38 1.0% 3%  
39 1.2% 2%  
40 0.2% 0.4%  
41 0.1% 0.2%  
42 0.1% 0.1%  
43 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations